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lesson1 - intro2

# lesson1 - intro2 - Lesson1 KafuWong2007 ECON1003 Analysis...

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Lesson1-1  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Lesson 1: Analysis of Economic Data is  difficult but intuitive

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Lesson1-2  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Outline Capture-Recapture experiment Estimator Simulations What is Statistics? Sampling How to estimate unemployment rate?
Lesson1-3  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Capture/Re-capture Capture/Re-capture Goal: 1. Illustrate that how to estimate the population size when the  cost of counting all individuals is prohibitive. 2. Illustrate how intuitive statistics could be. Statistics need not  be completely deep, murky, and mysterious.   Our common  sense can help us to negotiate our way through the course.

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Lesson1-4  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Counting the stones We are interested in knowing the number of black stones in  the box. We only need to do to obtain a  reasonable estimate  of stones  in the box – allowing for errors of counting or estimation.
Lesson1-5  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Two examples Example #1: The box contains only a small number of stones.

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Lesson1-6  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Two examples Example #2: The box contains a lot of stones that will take  days to count.
Lesson1-7  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data History and examples of  capture / recapture method Capture-recapture methods were originally developed in the  wildlife biology to monitor the census of bird, fish, and insect  populations ( counting all individuals is prohibitive ). Recently,  these methods have been utilized considerably in the areas of  disease and event monitoring.   http://www.pitt.edu/~yuc2/cr/history.htm

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Lesson1-8  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data The fish example Estimating the number ( N ) of fish in a lake or pond.   1. C  fish is caught, tagged, and returned to the lake.   2. Later on,  R  fish are caught and checked for tags.  Say  T  of  them have tags.   3. The numbers  C R , and  T  are used to estimate the fish  population.
Lesson1-9  Ka-fu Wong  ©  2007 ECON1003: Analysis of Economic Data Stones in a box The objective is to estimate the number ( N ) of fish  (represented by black stones) in a pond. Capture one handful of fish (black stones).  Count  them and call it  C .  Mark the fish by replacing the  black stones with red stones.  Put them back into  the pond.

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