Lecture Slides Feb 3

Lecture Slides Feb 3 - Slide 1 Measuring American Opinion...

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Slide 1 Measuring American Opinion: The Origins of Polling POLS107 February 3, 2010 Professor Jackson ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ Slide 2 Do Polls Matter? For politicians: Political capital Media coverage Fundraising Strategic planning/marketing ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ Slide 3 Do Polls Matter? For the public: 65% of Americans say they regularly or occasionally follow poll results (Gallup, 2000) ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________
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Slide 4 Do we trust polls? Can interviews with 1500-2000 people accurately reflect the views of the nation’s population, or is it not possible with so few people? 28% Yes, is accurate 56% No, not accurate 15% No opinion Gallup Poll (2000) ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ Slide 5 The history of public opinion polling 1800’s – 1936: The Era of Straw Polls Margins of error = 12-17% Main problems? Selection bias
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Lecture Slides Feb 3 - Slide 1 Measuring American Opinion...

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