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Project 3 - 1a Dry Wet Soaking Priors 0.50 0.30 0.20 Payoff...

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Priors Payoff Table Cost of testing Dry 0.50 8,000.00 $ Given NS Drill NoDrill Wet 0.30 Dry -70000.00 0.00 Soaking 0.20 Wet 50000.00 0.00 Soaking 200000.00 0.00 Drill Don't Drill V* EMV (46000.00) 0.00 Dry (70000.00) 0.00 0.00 Wet 50000.00 0.00 50000.00 Given OS Drill NoDrill Soaking 200000.00 0.00 200000.00 Dry -70000.00 0.00 EMV 20000.00 55000.00 Wet 50000.00 0.00 EVPI 35000.00 Soaking 200000.00 0.00 EMV 44000.00 0.00 STATE NS OS CS Given CS Drill NoDrill Dry (E1) 0.5 0.77 0.13 0.10 Dry -70000.00 0.00 Wet (E2) 0.3 0.15 0.65 0.20 Wet 50000.00 0.00 Soaking (E3) 0.2 0.10 0.20 0.70 Soaking 200000.00 0.00 EMV 110000.00 0.00 Joint Probability Table STATE NS OS CS Dry (E1) 0.5 0.3850 0.0650 0.0500 0.50 Wet (E2) 0.3 0.0450 0.1950 0.0600 0.30 EV|SI 40,700.00 $ Soaking (E3) 0.2 0.0200 0.0400 0.1400 0.20 EVSI 20,700.00 $ 0.45 0.30 0.25 ENGSI 12,700.00 $ EMV* 32,700.00 $ Posterior Probability Table STATE NS OS CS Decision Rule Dry (E1) 0.5 0.8556 0.2167 0.2000 Buy Test Wet (E2) 0.3 0.1000 0.6500 0.2400 Drill if CS or OS Soaking (E3) 0.2 0.0444 0.1333 0.5600 Don't Drill if NS 1.00 1.00 1.00 EMV* 32,700.00 $ SEISMIC OUTCOME
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Decision Rule DECISION TREE 85.56% (70,000.00) (59,888.89) Dry Buy Test Drill if CS or OS (46,000.00) 10.00% 50,000.00 5,000.00 Wet Don't Drill if NS EMV* 32,700.00 $ 4.44% 200,000.00 8,888.89 Soaking 0.00 21.67% (70,000.00) (15,166.67) Dry 44,000.00
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