CH 4 - BUS 140 Fundamentals of Operations Management Professor Ming Zhou Chapter 4 Forecasting Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter

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Chapter 4: Forecasting BUS 140 Fundamentals of Operations Management Professor Ming Zhou
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    Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter, you  should be able to : Identify or Define: Forecasting Forecasting Types of forecasts Types of forecasts Time horizons Time horizons Approaches to forecasts Approaches to forecasts
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    Forecasting: future? I see that you will get an A this semester.
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    Ancient Forecasting Native Americans The Orientals: Drill holes on the turtle back Heat it and interpret the cracks
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    What is Forecasting? Process of predicting a future event:  past/current ==> future Underlying basis of  all business decisions Production Inventory Personnel Facilities
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    A statement about the future value of a  variable of interest such as demand. Assumes causal system past ==> future Forecasts are rarely perfect because of  randomness Forecasts more accurate for groups vs. individuals Forecast accuracy decreases  as time horizon increases FORECAST :
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    Short-range forecast Up to 1 year, generally less than 3 months Purchasing, job scheduling, workforce levels,  job assignments, production levels Medium-range forecast 3 months to 3 years Sales and production planning, budgeting Long-range forecast 3 +  years New product planning, facility location, research  and development Forecasting Time Horizons
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    Forecasting Approaches Used when situation is vague and  little data exist New products New technology Involves intuition, experience e.g., forecasting sales on Internet Qualitative Methods Qualitative Methods
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    Overview of Qualitative Methods Jury of executive opinion Delphi method Sales force composite Consumer Market Survey
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    Forecasting Approaches Used when situation is ‘stable’ and  historical data exist Existing products Current technology Involves mathematical techniques e.g., forecasting sales of color  televisions Quantitative Methods Quantitative Methods
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This note was uploaded on 09/08/2010 for the course BUS 140 at San Jose State University .

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CH 4 - BUS 140 Fundamentals of Operations Management Professor Ming Zhou Chapter 4 Forecasting Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter

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