CH3 Forecasting 1-31-08

CH3 Forecasting 1-31-08 - Irregular variations MA - Moving...

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Bus 1/31/2008 CH3 Forecasting Use the past to forecast the future. Rarely perfect. Forecasts more accurate for group than individual Accuracy decreases as time horizon increases – more accurate short term than long term Types of Forecasts Judgemental – subjective Time Series – quantitative Trend – long term movement in data Seasonality – short term regular variations in data Cycle – wavelike variations of more than one year’s duration
Background image of page 1
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: Irregular variations MA - Moving Average MA4 MA2 Index Deseasonalized 2006 1 40 58.99705015 2 80 65 61.49116065 3 50 67.5 66.25 50/66/25 0.754716981 3 66.25 4 90 72.5 70 90/70 1.286 4 69.9844479 2007 1 50 75 73.75 50/73.75 0.678 1 73.74631268 2 100 78.75 76.875 100/76.875 1.301 2 76.86395081 3 60 79.5 4 105 81.64852255 Forecasting Associative models -...
View Full Document

This note was uploaded on 09/08/2010 for the course BUS 140 at San Jose State University .

Ask a homework question - tutors are online