Probability of Project Completion.docx - Probability of...

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Probability of Project Completion Introduction When developing a project schedule, the project manager aspires for the project to be completed on time. However, the project manager should anticipate a delay. Another possibility is an early completion of the project. The project manager might consider the probability or likelihood of each outcome. Learning Materials The critical path analysis determines the expected project completion time. However, there may be significant variation in the time estimates for activities. Variations of activities on the critical path can impact the overall completion time. Early Completion and Delay If activities are completed early, the completion date will be prior to the expected date. Or, there could be a possible delay. An early completion should not concern the project manager, but a delay could be worrisome. Variance of the Complete Project The variance of the complete project is computed by summing the variances of the activities on the critical path. The project standard deviation is the square root of the project variance. Project variance = σ² p = ∑ (variances of activities on critical path) Example Given the project example used in this section with the critical path of Start-A-C-E: The project variance = variance of activity A + variance of activity C + activity of activity E =0.11 + 1.78 + 0.11 =2.0 The project standard deviation = √project variance = √2.0 = 1.41 weeks. Using PERT Using the project variance and standard deviation, program evaluation and review technique (PERT) uses the following two assumptions:
Total project completion times follow a normal probability distribution.

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