Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences (with Student Suite Online)

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Stat 321 – Day 5 Probability Rules (2.2)

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Last Time – Probability Definition of probability : long-run relative frequency… Determining probabilities is hard Need to follow basic rules, our intuition is often rather faulty… Empirical probability Run the experiment many times to estimate how often outcome occur
Determining Probabilities Basic rules 0 < probability < 1 P(sample space) = 1 Other terminology Outcome Sample space = all possible outcomes Event = subset of outcomes in sample space Union vs. Intersection Complement of event = all outcomes in sample space not in the event

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Special Case IF outcomes are equally likely, P(A)= # of outcomes in A # of outcomes in S
Example 1: AFI films Top 100 movies Sample space Beth yes Beth no Allan yes See text for more discussion of Venn diagrams and probability trees

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Example 1: AFI Films Work through rest of Example 1
AFI Films Two-way table of counts ≠ P(A)+P(B) = .

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