Handout No. 2 - Role of Uncertainty in Civil Engineering

Handout No. 2 - Role of Uncertainty in Civil Engineering -...

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CE 311S Chapter 1 The Role of Probability and Statistics Probability and Statistics in Engineering
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Types of Uncertainty Aleatory Uncertainty = Uncertainty associated with inherent randomness VERSUS Epistemic Uncertainty = Uncertainty associated with imperfect/insufficient knowledge or models
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First First … some examples of aleatory uncertainty in all areas of civil uncertainty in all areas of civil engineering
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Example: Randomness in Rainfall Data Inherent variability (from year to year, in this example)
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Binned Data – prior to drawing histogram Sum = 29 Sum = 1.0000
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bin width = 4 in bin width = 4 in. bin height = No. of occurrences in that bin bin height = Fraction of Divide occurrences in that bin by 29
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Take histogram. Divide by no. of data (29) Divide by bin width (4 in.) Area = 1.0 (also called Frequency Density Distribution )
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Construction Material Variability
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Construction Material Variability
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Material Properties (Strength) Variability
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Material Properties (Strength) Variability
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Material Properties (Elastic Modulus) Variability Timber: Timber: natural organic material
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Material Properties (Elastic Modulus) Variability Masonry: heterogeneous mixture of cement and sand
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Corrosion
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Rock Discontinuities
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Soil Properties
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Soil Properties
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Pile Group Performance
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Wind-induced pressures on buildings
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Earthquake-induced soil loading
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Environmental engineering applications DO deficit affects DO deficit affects water quality
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Environmental engineering applications Max stream temp. affects water quality
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Transportation engineering applications
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Transportation engineering applications
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Pavements
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Transportation engineering applications
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This note was uploaded on 09/14/2010 for the course C E 301 taught by Professor Staff during the Spring '08 term at University of Texas at Austin.

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Handout No. 2 - Role of Uncertainty in Civil Engineering -...

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