MicroMorts - MicroMorts Comparing Death Rates Across Age...

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1 MicroMorts: Comparing Death Rates Across Age, Gender, Race, and Geographic Regions DeathRiskRankings.com 23 August 2009 Professor Paul Fischbeck Center for the Study and Improvement of Regulation Carnegie Mellon University [email protected] 412-268-3240 Professor David Gerard Lawrence University [email protected] 920-993-6035
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2 DeathRiskRankings.com A new website allows for quick and easy calculation of the probability of dying in the next year across multiple dimensions Age, gender, and race US states and European countries The US-European comparisons are not available elsewhere on the web and are relevant for informing the current health-care debate The website is designed to be easy to use and includes a basic tutorial to help new users These slides highlight some of the million comparisons that are possible with the website
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3 3 To Help Understand Death Risk, A Simple Thought Experiment Imagine an urn with 1,000,000 balls (one million) Some are colored purple The rest are green Every year on your birthday A blind-folded 6-year old pulls out a ball If it is purple , you will die within the year If it is green, you will live through the year Each purple ball is a one-in-a-million chance of dying and is called a MircoMort The term MicroMort was first coined by Professor Ron Howard of Stanford
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4 Other Ways to Think about a MicroMort Number of Purple Balls (MicroMorts) Risk of Dying Percent per Year Number of Coin Flips All Coming Up Heads 100 1 in 10,000 0.01% ~13 1,000 1 in 1,000 0.1% ~10 10,000 1 in 100 1% ~7 100,000 1 in 10 10% ~3 500,000 1 in 2 50% 1
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5 5 How Risky Is Your Lifestyle? For you personally, How many balls in your urn are purple for the next year? What lifestyle changes could you make that would change purple balls to green? What vice (or risk) could you take up that would change green balls to purple ? What would you pay to have a purple ball turn green without having to change your lifestyle? How much would you take to have a green ball turn purple ?
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6 6 Baseline Number of Purple Balls (MicroMorts) for US For every age group, men are much more likely to die in the next year (20% to 166% more likely) Age Male Female M/F Ratio 05-09 170 137 1.24 10-19 578 275 2.10 20-29 1,338 503 2.66 30-39 1,849 989 1.87 40-49 3,713 2,134 1.74 50-59 7,809 4,690 1.67 60-69 18,653 11,864 1.57 70-79 43,519 30,406 1.43 80+ 117,211 97,588 1.20 Risks are doubling about every 10 years for the younger age categories. More than doubling for the older
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7 Details for an Individual Dying in the Next Year (MicroMorts) 45-year old white in Maryland Sorted by male risk Large gender differences (almost twice the risk for men) Major causes – Circulatory for men Cancer for women Men are higher for nearly every cause Cause of Death Male Female Total 3,334 1,862 Circulatory system diseases 894 331 Cancers 707 734 Accidents 287 86 Undetermined - Homicide Suicide or Poisoning? 269 105 Digestive system diseases 253 122 Suicide 229 66 Infectious and parasitic diseases 180 81 Endocrine/metabolic diseases 116 73 Respiratory diseases 93 71 Mental and behavioral disorders 77 26 Nervous system diseases 71 58 Homicide 43 18
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MicroMorts - MicroMorts Comparing Death Rates Across Age...

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