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# 1mid09 - DADSS First Midterm Spring 2009 Test Number Don't...

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DADSS First Midterm Spring 2009 Test Number: _________ Don't forget, this test will be graded using the special grading scheme. The questions are roughly organized in order of difficulty within each topic. However, you may have strengths or weaknesses that do not follow the order in which I have laid out the test. Question 1 is a free five points. Don't over look it. Questions 2-15 deal with subjective probability, Bayes, decision theory, and value of information. Questions 16-19 deal mostly with Engineering Economics. Question 20 is another chance to get a free five points. Answer it only after finishing the rest of the test or when time is up. If you are accurate, you will get bonus points. For each question, you are to write the probability that you think each option is correct. We will use the scoring rule discussed in class to grade the test. Make sure that you record your probabilities on the answer sheet. You will turn in only the answer sheet. If you leave any probabilities blank, we will assume that you wanted to have any remaining probability distributed equally among the blank answers. If you make a mistake in adding your probabilities, we will normalize the values so that they sum to 1.0. A probability of 0 by the correct option will cause you to flunk the test. Don't panic. If you are stuck on a real hard problem, use your best judgment to eliminate some alternatives, fill in appropriate probability values, and push on. For a quick, no risk, five points: 1) On a scale from 1 to 7, how fair do you think this testing procedure is? 1: Totally unfair, I am really bothered by it. 2: 3: 4: As fair as any other testing procedure that I have been exposed to at CMU 5: 6: 7: Much fairer than other testing procedures at CMU. 1

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DADSS First Midterm Spring 2009 2
DADSS First Midterm Spring 2009 Given the following decision matrix showing COST data. Outcome 1 Outcome 2 Outcome 3 Alternative 1 4 1 4 Alternative 2 5 -1 5 Alternative 3 3 2 5 Alternative 4 4 -2 5

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1mid09 - DADSS First Midterm Spring 2009 Test Number Don't...

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