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1.
The Bayesian theorem is the predominant approach to the confirmation of
conditional probabilities. Given that we let h=hypothesis and e=evidence, the Bayesian
theorem can be written as,
P(h/e)=P(h).P(e/h)
P(e)
The subjective Bayesian sees the probability as the degree/strength of belief that a
person has in the truth of such a proposition. The beliefs can come in varying levels of
strength and so a subjective probability function P can represent a rational individual’s
beliefs. For each h that a person has a strong opinion, P(h) would measure the level of
confidence in the truth of h. Conditional probabilities would represent conditional beliefs,
so P(h/e) would measure the person’s confidence in h on the assumption that e is fact.
2.
This quote is from Feyerabend’s Against Method.
He seems to be showing his
“anything goes” belief. Basically, he is saying that a scientific point of view may as well
exist through matters of persuasion and by becoming more “fashionable.” Feyerabend
found that “such ‘irrational’ methods of support are needed because of the ‘uneve
development’ of different parts of science.” Feyerabend analyzed Galileo’s findings and
discussed that Galileo had to make use of ad hoc hypothesis and alterations to the very
language in which observations are made. For Feyerabend, Galileo proceeds
counterinductively, and against the rational principles of scientific method. Feyerabend
did not agree with the strict guidelines of any methods given by scientists and
philosophers of science because he did not want the scientific process to be restricted in
anyway. The fact that Feyerabend supports Galileo’s approach it shows his distaste of the
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