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Class-4-21-10 - COMPUTING PROBABILITIES and CONDITIONAL...

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COMPUTING CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES PROBABILITIES and
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QUIZ 2 scores
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LET US PLAY A GAME You cast the dice try to get at least a 6 and later on an 8 before 7 comes up two times or at least an 8 and later on a 6 If you succeed you win!!! What is the probability of winning? 7 We will use the diagram in the next page to compute this probability next
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The game simulated by by three spins next
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SOLUTION next 5/16 6/16 5/16 5/16 5/11 6/11 5/11 5/11 5/11 5/11 5/16 5/11 6/11 5/16 x 6/11 x 5/11 6/16 5/16 5/11 x x 6/16 5/16 5/11 x x x 5/16 6/11 x 5/11 5/16 5/11 x 5/16 x 5/11 P[win] = 0.545584
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Some Probability Paradoxes A Paradox is a true statement that contradicts intuition next
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1. The Pelph disease hits about 5% of the population The False positive Paradox 2. The Uni test is 95% accurate in detecting Pelph The Question: The setup: 3. Given that you are Pelph-positive (by the Uni test) what is the probability that you have Pelph? Some Answers: a) 95% b) 90% c) 80% d) 70% e) 60% f) 50% next
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A good advice Don’t guess Draw the wheel 5% Pelph 95% no Pelph 5% of the population has Pelph 95% of the population does not have Pelph next
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