Excel, Decision Analysis with additional Info

Excel, Decision Analysis with additional Info - Conditional...

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Purchase Alternatives 0.6 0.4 Apartment Building $50,000 $30,000 Office Building $100,000 -$40,000 Warehouse $30,000 $10,000 EVPI= $28,000 Good Economic Conditions Poor Economic Conditions
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EMV $42,000 $44,000 $22,000
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Revised Probability when a Positive Report is G States of Nature Good Conditions 0.6 0.8 Poor Conditions 0.4 0.1 P(P): Revised Probability when a Negative Report is States of Nature Good Conditions 0.6 0.2 Poor Conditions 0.4 0.9 P(N): Prior Probabilities Conditional Probabilities Prior Probabilities Conditional Probabilities
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Given 0.48 0.923 0.04 0.077 0.52 Given 0.12 0.250 0.36 0.750 0.48 Prior x Conditional Revised (Posterior Probabilities) Prior x
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Unformatted text preview: Conditional Revised (Posterior Probabilities) Decision Node Probability Node Payout $89,231 P(P) 0.52 EV with Consultant's Info $63,200 P(N) 0.48 $35,000 EVSI: $19,200 Efficiency: 0.69 P(g|P) $50,000 Apt. Building $48,462 0.92 P(p|P) 0.08 $30,000 P(g|P) $100,000 Office Building $89,231 0.92 P(p|P) 0.08-$40,000 P(g|P) $30,000 Warehouse $28,462 0.92 P(p|P) 0.08 $10,000 P(g|N) $50,000 Apt. Building $35,000 0.25 P(p|N) 0.75 $30,000 P(g|N) $100,000 Office Building-$5,000 0.25 P(p|N) 0.75-$40,000 P(g|N) $30,000 Warehouse $15,000 0.25 P(p|N) 0.75 $10,000...
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This note was uploaded on 09/24/2010 for the course BU 628 taught by Professor Dr.tapp during the Spring '10 term at Georgian.

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Excel, Decision Analysis with additional Info - Conditional...

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