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Unformatted text preview: Revised (Posterior Probabilities) Prior x Conditional Revised (Posterior Probabilities) Decision Node Probability Node Payout P(P) 0.55 EV with Consultant's Info $916,118 P(N) 0.45 EVSI: $51,117 Efficiency: 0.26 Expand $767,300 $1,141,950 Maintain $1,141,950 Sell $320,000 Expand $640,100 $640,100 Maintain $527,150 Sell $320,000 P(gP) $800,000 0.89 P(pP) 0.11 $500,000 P(gP) $1,300,000 0.89 P(pP) 0.11$150,000 P(gP) $320,000 0.89 P(pP) 0.11 $320,000 P(gN) $800,000 0.47 P(pN) 0.53 $500,000 P(gN) $1,300,000 0.47 P(pN) 0.53$150,000 P(gN) $320,000 0.47 P(pN) 0.53 $320,000...
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This note was uploaded on 09/24/2010 for the course BU 628 taught by Professor Dr.tapp during the Spring '10 term at Georgian.
 Spring '10
 dr.tapp

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