Problem 40

# Problem 40 - probabilities Contract P(C = 0.4 P(F|A = 0.7...

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Chapter 12 Problem 40 Decision Node Probability Payout 40,000.00 P(A|F) = 0.7 25,600.00 P(U|F)=0.3 -8,000.00 Drill Press P(A|F) = 0.7 20,000.00 25,600.00 Lathe 15,200.00 P(U|F)=0.3 4,000.00 Grinder P(F)= 0.4 P(A|F) = 0.7 12,000.00 11,400.00 P(U|F)=0.3 10,000.00 16,480.00 P(N) 0.6 40,000.00 P(A|U)=0.2 1,600.00 P(N|U)=0.8 -8,000.00 Drill Press P(A|U)=0.2 20,000.00 Lathe 10,400.00 P(N|U)=0.8 7,200.00 4,000.00 Grinder P(A|U)=0.2 12,000.00 10,400.00 P(N|U)=0.8 10,000.00

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1 2 3 4 5 States of Nature Prior Probabilities Conditional Prior probabilities x posterior Probabilities conditional probabilities

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Unformatted text preview: probabilities Contract P(C) = 0.4 P(F|A) = 0.7 0.28 0.70 No contract P(N) = 0.6 P(F|N) = 0.2 0.12 0.30 0.40 1 2 3 4 5 States of Nature Prior Probabilities Conditional Prior probabilities x posterior Probabilities conditional probabilities probabilities Contract P(C) = 0.4 P(U|A) = 0.3 0.12 0.20 No contract P(N) = 0.6 P(U|N) = 0.8 0.48 0.80 0.60 Maximum fee the owner should pay: 15,200.00 Beysian is a lot more precise, as the Drill Press is not the best choice if the report is unfavorable...
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Problem 40 - probabilities Contract P(C = 0.4 P(F|A = 0.7...

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