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Homework - Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand for Carpet 8 12...

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Month Demand for Carpet 3 month moving average 3 month weighted moving average 1 8 2 12 3 7.00 4 9.00 9.00 8.77 5 15.00 9.33 8.70 6 11.00 10.33 12.06 7 10.00 11.67 12.08 8 12.00 12.00 10.93 Absolute Error 1 2 3 4 0.00 0.23 5 5.67 6.30 6 0.67 1.06 7 1.67 2.08 8 0.00 1.07 MAD 1.60 2.15 MAPD 14.04% 18.84% Due to the deviation %, the 3 month moving average seems to be more accurate
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Weights used months 1 0.55 2 0.33 3 0.12
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Exponential Smoothed Trend Factor Adjusted Demand Forecast Year Occupancy Rate % Alpha=0.2 Beta=0.2 Alpha=0.2 1 83.00 --- --- 2 78.00 83.00 0.00 83.00 3 75.00 82.00 -0.20 81.80 4 81.00 80.60 -0.44 80.16 5 86.00 80.68 -0.34 80.34 6 85.00 81.74 -0.06 81.69 7 89.00 82.40 0.09 82.48 8 90.00 83.72 0.33 84.05 9 86.00 84.97 0.52 85.49 Absolute Errors 1 2 5.00 5.00 3 7.00 6.80 4 0.40 0.84 5 5.32 5.66 6 3.26 3.31 7 6.60 6.52 8 6.28 5.95 9 1.03 0.51 Mad 4.98 4.94 Mapd 5.21% 5.16% The average error chart seems to be more accurate
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Linear Trend Line Linear Trend Line Slope 1.33 78.33 Intercept 77.00 79.67 Demand = 1.33*t +77 81.00 82.33 83.67 85.00 86.33 87.67 89.00 Exponentially smoothed
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Homework - Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand for Carpet 8 12...

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