SME_8e_Ch_20_Section_3

# SME_8e_Ch_20_Section_3 - CHAPTER 20 SECTION 3 TIME-SERIES...

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1 CHAPTER 20 SECTION 3: TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING MULTIPLE CHOICE 118. In determining monthly seasonal indexes, the first step is to construct a centered moving average with a period of a. 24 months b. 12 months c. 6 months d. 3 months ANS: B PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 119. Which of the following will not be present in a deseasonalized time series? a. Trend effects b. Cyclical variation c. Seasonal variation d. Random variation ANS: C PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 120. The term b 1 in the equation y 8 t = b 0 + b 1 t + b 2 Q 1 + b 3 Q 2 + b 4 Q 3 , where y 8 t represents the predicted value of y at time t , is: a. time trend b. seasonal trend c. an indicator variable d. a value between 0 and 4 ANS: A PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 121. The level of construction employment in Michigan is lowest during the winter. A model designed to forecast construction employment in Detroit should use: a. a time trend b. a moving average c. seasonal indicator variable d. an autoregressive model ANS: C PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 122. Which of the following will be reflected by deseasonalized time series? a. Trend effects b. Cyclical effects c. Random variation d. All of these choices are true. ANS: D PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3

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2 123. Which of the following equations deseasonalize a time series, where T , C , S , and R are respectively the trend, cyclical, seasonal, and random variation components of the time series? a. ( T × C × S × R ) / T = C × S × R b. ( T × C × S × R ) / C = T × S × R c. ( T × C × S × R ) / S = T × C × R d. ( T × C × S × R ) / R = T × C × S ANS: C PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 124. The linear model for long-term trend is: y = β 0 + 1 t + ε , where t is the time period. The trend is indicated by: a. 0 b. 1 c. y d. t ANS: B PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 125. The trend line y 8 = 0.70 + 0.005 t was calculated from quarterly data for 1999-2003, where t = 1 for the first quarter of 1999. The seasonal indexes computed from the trend line for the four quarters of the year 2004 were .85, 1.05, 1.15, and .80, respectively. The seasonalized forecast for the third quarter of the year 2004 is: a. 0.937 b. 0.820 c. 0.815 d. 0.943 ANS: A PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 126. If summer 2004 sales were \$12,600 and the summer seasonal index was 1.20, then the deseasonalized 2004 summer sales value would be: a. \$12,600 b. \$12,601.2 c. \$15,120 d. \$10,500 ANS: D PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3 127. Forecasts based on trend and seasonality are generated by: a. identifying and removing the seasonal effect b. extrapolating the linear trend c. adjusting the forecasts to the seasonal effect d. All of these choices are true. ANS: D PTS: 1 REF: SECTION 20.3
3 128. In determining monthly seasonal indexes for gas consumption, the sum of the 12 means for gas consumption as a percentage of the moving average is 1150. To get the seasonal indexes, each of the 12 monthly means is to be multiplied by: a. 1150 / 1200 b. (1200 + 1150) / 12 c. (1150 + 12) / 1200 d. 1200 / 1150 ANS: D PTS:

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SME_8e_Ch_20_Section_3 - CHAPTER 20 SECTION 3 TIME-SERIES...

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