Lec11-2010 - Application Judgment and Decision Making 1 Books Quirkology How We Discover the Big Truths in Small Things by Richard Wiseman How We

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–11. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
1 Application: Judgment and Decision Making
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Books: Quirkology: How We Discover the Big Truths in Small Things by Richard Wiseman How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday by Thomas Gilovich Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other C by Michael Shermer 2
Background image of page 2
3 Final Exam will cover Medin, et al: Chapter 8 (first half), 10, 13, 14 Nothegger, C. Winter, S. and M. Raubal, M. (2004) Selection of Salient Features for Route Directions. Spatial Cognition and Computation, 4, 113-136. . Gabora, L., Rosch, E., Aerts, D. (2008). Toward an Ecological Theory of Concepts, Ecological Psychology , 20 , 84-116. Tversky, A., & Shafir, E. (1992). The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 3 , 305-309. Courseweb Syllabus
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
4 Presentations Use own laptop, overhead projector, handouts (20), or just talk. Do NOT to turn in any part of the presentation. Project does not need to be finished. Final Report Submit electronically on courseweb Questions about exam Use blackboard discussion. See review questions on Courseweb.
Background image of page 4
What is a Good Decision? Outcome? Process? read car reviews online but wind up with lemon. .
Background image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Evaluating Decisions Because the decision comes before the outcome, it must be evaluated on the basis of what is known at that time (no Monday morning quarterbacks) So. . Decisions are evaluated based on what might have happened as well as what did. .
Background image of page 6
The umbrella problem Suppose we want to evaluate the decision to carry an umbrella. . We need to know about two things: Costs & benefits: how much hassle is it to carry (3:10) & how much do we hate getting wet (9:10) ? Weather: what’s it going to be?
Background image of page 7

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Umbrella Problem P(rain)=.6 P(Nrain)=.4 Expected Hassle Carry (hassle 3) .6 * 3 = 1.8 .4 * 3 = 1.2 3 Not Carry .6 * 9=5.4 0 5.4
Background image of page 8
Rational Decision Making A rational decision maker is one who chooses the alternative which maximizes his expected utility. . So If I have a crooked coin that is known to come up heads p(H)=.51 then you are a cinch to bet with me as long as you get to call So if I offer to flip you once for your net worth, what’s a rational decision maker going to do?
Background image of page 9

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Consider … Imagine that you have just taken a tough qualifying examination. It is the end of the fall quarter, you feel tired and run-down, and you are not sure that you passed the exam. In case you failed you have to take the exam again in a couple of months —after the Christmas holidays. You have the opportunity to buy a very attractive 5-day Christmas vacation package to Hawaii at an exceptionally low price. The special offer expires tomorrow, while the exam grade will
Background image of page 10
Image of page 11
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This note was uploaded on 09/28/2010 for the course SIS IS2300 taught by Professor Brianbutler during the Fall '10 term at Pittsburgh.

Page1 / 83

Lec11-2010 - Application Judgment and Decision Making 1 Books Quirkology How We Discover the Big Truths in Small Things by Richard Wiseman How We

This preview shows document pages 1 - 11. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online