1B+Without+Knowing+Much+Student+Version

1B+Without+Knowing+Much+Student+Version - MS&E 220...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–4. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
1 Probabilistic Analysis Lecture 1B What common sense can do Samuel S. Chiu Stanford University 2 How much do you know . . • Let’s see what we can do just with common sense • Giving you a taste of our approach 3 To represent an uncertain situation 0.3 ? $10 -$6
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
2 4 To represent an uncertain situation 0.6 ? Will be admitted to Stanford Will not be admitted to Stanford 5 A tree representation • Lay out all the scenarios and their associated probabilities • A tree naturally satisfies all the rules of probability theory: to be formally introduced later Scenarios S 1 S 2 …. …. S k …. S n p n p 1 p 2 6 Components of a probability model • What are possible? – List them all (exhaustively) • How likely is each of the possibilities? – Assigning probability to each of the possibilities Scenarios S 1 S 2 …. …. S k …. S n p n p 1 p 2 What are possible? How likely?
Background image of page 2
3 7 Rumsfeld’s Remark • They are just guesses. • There are possibilities , not probabilities . 8 A Simple Example • If you know the answers, just sit back and enjoy the ride – without giving away the secret! 9
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Image of page 4
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Page1 / 7

1B+Without+Knowing+Much+Student+Version - MS&E 220...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 4. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online