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1B+Without+Knowing+Much+Student+Version

# 1B+Without+Knowing+Much+Student+Version - MS&E 220...

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1 MS&E 220 Probabilistic Analysis Lecture 1B What common sense can do Samuel S. Chiu Stanford University 2 How much do you know .. Let’s see what we can do just with common sense Giving you a taste of our approach 3 To represent an uncertain situation 0.3 ? \$10 -\$6

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2 4 To represent an uncertain situation 0.6 ? Will be admitted to Stanford Will not be admitted to Stanford 5 A tree representation Lay out all the scenarios and their associated probabilities A tree naturally satisfies all the rules of probability theory: to be formally introduced later Scenarios S 1 S 2 …. …. S k …. S n p n p 1 p 2 6 Components of a probability model What are possible? List them all (exhaustively) How likely is each of the possibilities? Assigning probability to each of the possibilities Scenarios S 1 S 2 …. …. S k …. S n p n p 1 p 2 What are possible? How likely?
3 7 Rumsfeld’s Remark They are just guesses. There are possibilities , not probabilities . 8 A Simple Example If you know the answers, just sit back and enjoy the ride – without giving away the secret!

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