HO3-Prob - MS&E 252 Handout #3 Decision Analysis I...

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MS&E 252 Handout #3 Decision Analysis I September 21 st , 2010 ________________________________________________________________________ Page 1 of 5 Probabilistic Question Info. & Grading Policy Multiple-choice questions are often administered in large classes to assess students’ abilities to recognize correct answers to questions that are essentially definitions or calculations. Students presumably pick the answer that they believe is most likely to be correct. When you pick your answer, you are making a decision about which answer is most likely to be correct. In MS&E 252, we will encourage you to practice and reflect on the decision processes you employ to choose your responses. The multiple choice format we employ as part of this encouragement works because it does more than just ask you to pick the answer you believe most likely to be correct. That would only give us a crude picture of what you know or don’t know. On a typical multiple choice test with four answers, for example, your response indicates what you believe about the correctness of one answer. In the case where you picked a wrong answer, we don’t learn much about what you believed about the correct answer. In some settings, knowledge assessors have used “strictly proper” scoring functions to elicit the beliefs of respondents for each answer on a multiple choice question. The respondents are invited to assign a probability of each answer being correct. Their scores are calculated as a function of their likelihood or probability assignment; when the function is “strictly proper,” (e.g., logarithmic), the respondents maximize their expected score when their probability assignments reflect their true beliefs. Using such a probabilistic multiple choice format, we intend to provide opportunities for you to reveal how well you know the course material; and opportunities to practice deciding how to allocate your resources on quiz and exam questions, guided by new insights from the course. Example (for illustration only; real questions will feature concepts learned in the course): The title of MS&E listed in the 2004 Time Schedule is: a. Intro to Decision Analysis b. Decision Analysis I c. Introduction to Decision Analysis
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This note was uploaded on 09/28/2010 for the course MS&E 252 taught by Professor Howard during the Fall '08 term at Stanford.

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HO3-Prob - MS&E 252 Handout #3 Decision Analysis I...

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