Vibration - ME SIS Risk Based Design Prof lrem Y.Tumer...

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Unformatted text preview: ME SIS Risk Based Design Prof. lrem Y.Tumer Mechanical. Industrial.& Manufacturing Engineering Oregon State University Week I: Basic Concepts 0! Risk and Uncertainty, Rlsk Analysis Process About me... 0 PhD in I998.The University ofTexas atAustin. Mechanical Systems and Design, Mechanical Enjneering 0 Worked at NASA as a research scientist and group lead.and project manager from I998-2006: Helicopter transmissions/vibration analysis Aircraft engines/condition based maintenance System fault monitoring and health management Complex system level design and modeling Failure and risk analysis 0 Associate professor at Oregon State University since 2006 Now a little about you... 0 Name? Hometown? 0 Year in Grad School? MS or PhD! 0 Thesis advisor? 0 Research area? 0 Courses taken? 0 Career goals? 0 What do you expect to get out of this course? Syllabus Lecture Time: MW ZOO-leSpm o 4 credit course. 75 minute lectures 0 Research'Deygn project course 0 Exceptiom; Wednesdays with presentations/exam may last the entire time zoo-3:50pm Location: ROG 332 Office Hours: Wednesdays “JO-6:00 (or email anytime) Textbook: None required Reading material: Research Papers a Book Excerpts will be posted on course web site Course web site will be used for all communication. announcements. and assignments: httpchiassesengoregonstateeddmimelfallzo I OlmeS I 5! Syllabus 0 Grading O 40% Design Proiect (4 case studies to choose from) 0 30% Exam (Week 7: Lecture and DP assignments) O 30% Research Project (4 topics to choose from) See Design Project (DP). Research Project (RP) deliverables and ReadingAssignments (RA) on syllabus NO FINAL EXAM Attendance is expecced and critical for success in class! Expectations This is a very reading, writing, and research intensive course! independent thinking and teamwork are required Reading assignments and literature findings can be discussed in class with everyone participating Literature search and research problem formulation required for research project Professional presentations and reports required Course Content 0 Our goal: Implement risk analysis as an integral part ofthe design process Traditional design process Traditional risk analysis methods Risk-based (informed) design process 0 What you will learn: Failure. reliability. risk concepts and analysis processes Failure. risk. and reliability analysis methods Research In risk-based (informed) design methodologies Comparison 0! approacheslresults using actual case studies Topics 0 Topics & Schedule 0 Week I 8: 2: Intro. project selection, risk analysis process Week 2 8: 3: Reliability engineering. measures. RBD Week 4: Failure mechanisms 8: databases Week 5 & 6: Risk analysis methods (FMEA. FTA. ETA) Week 7: Exam Week 8 8: 9: Risk based design methods (FFIP) Week I0: Research project presentations Teaming 0 Form teams (4 teams of 4) O MBTI survey (take by the end of today) . I . 5 . I i f I. , I o Teaming assignments by the end oiTuesday 0 MBTI/teaming discussion on Wednesday 0 first team assignment due next weeld Assignments 0 Oeliverables: 0 Design Project Assignments (CPI-0P7) 0 Will be asked to present/discuss in class 0 Research ProjectAssignmencs (RPI oRP6) 0 Will be presented in class at the end of the term 0 ReadingAssignments (RAI -RAS) 0 May be asked to discuss in class 0 ln-class paper discussion forum: paper discussion 0 ln-class exercises Case Studies (Pick one per team) 0 Case Studies: 0 Oil Industry. e.g.. Deep Water Horizon 0 Automotive Industry. e.g..Toyota 0 Nuclear Industry: eg..Three Mile Island 0 Space lndustrr. 23.. Space Shuttle Challenger. Columbia 0 Select by the end 0‘ Wednesday dais week 0 Provide order of preference per team (l-4) (I : top choice) Design Project Assignments 0 DP I due Week 2 (first team assignment): 0 Case study proposal [2 pages) and presentation (5 minutes) 0 Description 0! the ICOdCfll and selected system to analyze 0 DP 2 due Week 4 (MMduall‘team assigmnent): Reliability 0 DP 3 due Week 5 (team assignment): Failure mechanisms 0 DP 4 due Week 6 (MMduallteam assignment): FMECA 0 DP 5 due Week 8 (indm‘duall‘team assigmnent): FTNETA 0 DP 6 due Week l0 (team assignment): FFIP 0 DP 7 due Week l0 (team assignment): Case study report Research Topics (Pick one per team) 0 Topics: 0 Reliability based design optimization 0 Utility based decision making 0 Uncertainty analysis 0 Robust design 0 Select a topic by next weeld 0 Provide order of preference per team (l4) Research Project Assignments RP I due Week 3 (first team assignment): 0 Research proposal (I page: brief discussion 0! topic) a Research meeting; begin literature search Week 2! RP 2 due Week 4 (second team assignment): 0 ln-tlass paper discussion forum: pick one paper per team. assign reading to class. present main ideas and conduct discussion RP 3 due Week 5 (individual assignment): 0 Init‘nl literature survey summary (l0 semnnl journal publications) RP 4: lnnerim progress report (team assignment) RP 5: Final presentation (team assignment 20 minutes) RP 6: Final report (team assignment lZ-lS pages;20+ references) Reading Assignments 0 RA l- RA6 0 Important to read them during the week assigned 0 Note on shart vs. long documents 0 May be asked to commentldiscuss RAs Literature Search 0 Ubrary use demo 0 Databases 0 E-joumals 0 Googie use demo Topics 0 DefinitiOn of RISK 0 Risk vs. Uncertainty 0 RiskAnaJysis Process 0 RiskAssessment 0 Risk Management 0 Risk Communication Risk:What is it? Class exercise: Define n'sk! Define uncertainty! Risk:What is it? 0 Risk 0 Many defnitions. depaidng on application and context 0 An event With a potent'nl form or losses 0 UNCERTAINTY with a badlnegative outcome 0 Key componerm: 0 Likelihood (aka probability. an uncertainty) 0 Consequence (losses in dollars. work hours. human lives. etc.) 0 RISK = (Probability ol the event) it (Consequence oi the event) Risk vs. Uncertainty 0 Risk and Uncertainty very commonly used interchangeably 0 Definitions from Decision Theory and Statistics (Doug Hubbard); 0 Uncertainty. a lack of certainty: a state of loving limited knowledge about an event. inking it impossible to exactly describe existing state or future outcome 0 Measurement of Uncertainty: a set 0! possible states or outcomes where probabilities are assigned to each possbie state or OUKMQ 0 Risk; a state of uncertainty where some possble outcomes have an undesired effect of significant loss 0 Measurement ofRi'sk: a set o! measured uncertainties where some possible outcomes are losses. and the magnitude 0! those losses Types of Uncertainty 0 Uncertainty might be only due to a lack of knowledge about obtainable hcts which can be remedied e e.g.;You might be uncertain about how a new roclcet design will workbut you might be able to remove this uncertainty with lurther analysis and testirg o Uncertainty might be more Intrinsic and hence unavoidable 0 egg Inherent variations in manufactured products (tolerances) 0 Uncertainty of a measurement given In error bars 0 Found by repeaum the measurement enough times until you obtain a good estimate of the standard deviation of the values Risk vs. Uncertainty 0 Example: Learning to live with rain (welcome to Oregon!!) 0 if you do not know whether it will rain tomorrow. you have a state ofunoenmnty 0 If you apply probabilities to the possible outcomes using weather forecasts. you have quantified the uncertainty 0 If you have qmtil'ied your uncertainty as a 90% chance of sunshine. and are phnning a major outdoor event for tomorrow. then you have risk since there is a IOX dance that it will be rain. which is undesirable 0 If there is potential oi monetary loss due to the cancellation of the event in case olraln.then you have quantified the nsk (eg..a l0% chance of loosing 350.000) Risk2Where? When? Class exercise: 0 EngineenngWhene do you expect to find risksluncertainty? Teaming Results 0 4 teams of 4 0 NET! survey results and discussion (Dr. Rob Stone) 0 0 Project selection (DP and RP) due to me today 0 Reminder: first team assignment (DP I) due next weeld Risk:Why do we care? Consequence Risk in Different Phases of the Product Lifecycle I Operations Types of Risk Considerations Technical Risk Analysis Process Class exercise: Write down ideal n’sk analysis process Assess. manage. communicate risks! Risk Analysis Process 0 In most cases. risks cannot be avoided.and in some cases. it is part of the business model and a natural component of technology development 0 It is important to: 0 Identify risks (proactive. continuoust EARLY!) 0 Analyze risks: levels. likelihood. consequence 0 Assess options 0 Develop plan to manage. mitigate risks. and recover from failures due to risks 0 Goal: Treat risk as just another design parameter! e Design stage: RISK BASED (lNFORMED) DESIGN Risk Analysis Process 0 Mskassessment: 0 Identifying sources oi potential harm and assessing the likelihood that harm will occur and the consequences 0 Risk management: 0 Evaluating which risks that were identified require management. and choosing/mplementing the phns or actions required to control or mitigate those risks 0 Risk communication: 0 Creating an open dialogue between the van’ous stakeholders (customers and enp‘neers). risk assessors (analysts). and managers to then actively inform all the other processes Involved Your Design Projects 0 For your final reports. tell me how the failures in the selected case Study handled: 0 Risk assessment 0 Risk management 0 Risk communication Risk Assessment 0 Qualitative: 0 lists. dlSCUSSDOhS. brainstorming sesszons. lessons learned databases. pn‘or knowledge _. 0 Quantitative: 0 simple rankings. occurrence. probabilities. Qualitative RiskAssessment Fever Charts ' ltd-o Home-"W ’. . (:0me ’..." 1.7.1" 1.377" w J, u ‘ r ~..‘.._ ~ ,... ...~... “- F... V-... t -‘- -.., ,.... . .,. --u ,‘. 4-... “Quantifying” qualitative risks 0 Simple rankings 0 Fever charts with numbers for liioeiihood and tansequence 0-5) 0 FMEAIFMECA: with numbers (Risk Priority Number) 0 Probabilities based on past experience. expert judgnent... Qualitative Risk Assessment Class exercise: What are some problems with qualitative assessments of n'sk.’ Quantitative Risk Assessment "Risk Sensidve" Industries: Ex: nuclear power and aircraft industries. NASA. Possible failure oi a complex series of engineered systems can result in highly undesirable outcomes Required to manage risk in a highly quantitative way 0 The usml measure of risk for these types 0! events; RISK = (Probability of the event) it (Consequence) Quantitative Risk Assessment Class exercise: What are some problems with quantitative risk assessment! Quantitative Risk Assessment 0 Measuring engineering risk is ohen very difficult 0 Probability is assessed usng case stud es 0 Frequency of post similar events 0 What to do in new designs. technologies. environments? 0 Rare failures are lord to estimate 0 Huge problem with NASA type des'gns! 0 Public scrutiny: tax dollars. human lives 0 Astronauts understand and accept the risk of spate flight 0 Benefits 04 space flightlexploration outweigh the risks! 0 Requires deep knowledge and lots and lots of analyses! Probabilistic Risk Assessment 0 For “risk sensitive" industries: 0 PRA: a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associated with complex engineered technological systems (eg. airliners. nuclear power plants. spacecraft) 0 Accepted use by US government agencies. regulatory agencies to enhance safety without applying undue conservatism 0 Answers 3 basic questions: 0 What can go wrong (initiating events)? 0 What and how severe are the potential detriments! 0 How likely are they to occur (probabilities or frequencies)? Probabilistic Risk Assessment 0 What can go wrong (initiating events)! 0 Use of technical knowledge of possible causes 0 Use of FMEA to focus on most important initiators 0 What and how severe are the potential detriments? 0 Development of event (or accident) scenarios 0 Deterministic analyses (thermal.fiuid. structural) to descn‘be the phenomena that can occur along the path of event scenario 0 How likely are they to occur? 0 Probabilities or frequencies of events 0 Boolean logic methods for model development (ETA & FTA) 0 Probabilistic 8: statistical methods to quantify model Risk Management 0 Figuring out what might go wrong. decitfing what to do to about it (or whether to do anything about it). and implementing necessary steps to prevent/eliminate (mitigate) it. andior reduce its impact 0 Ideal: prioritize to handle the risks with the greatest loss & probability of occurrence first 0 In practicewery difficult to balance between high probilow loss and low prob/high loss Risk Management 0 Risk avoidance: do not perform activity that has risk 0 Losing out on potential gain. not flying. not going to space? 0 Risk reduction. implement methods to reduce severity of loss 0 fig. sprinklers to put out fire to reduce risk oi loss; developing software incrementally; prototyping 0 Risk retention: accepting loss when it occurs 0 Viable strategy for small risks; the cost oi insuring against risk pream- than the total losses stistaiied 0 Risk transfer: causing another party to acceptlshare the risk 0 hsurance. liability 0 Outsourcing SW development. manufacturing customer stpport Your Design Projects 0 When researching your case studies. look specifically for what they chose to do as an organization to manage risks: Risk avoidance. reduction. retention. transfer? Risk Communication 0 Any ideas? 0 Meetings. charts. bninston'ning sessions. rem'ews. reports. informal discussions 0 How effective do you think this is in the real world? 0 Think about recent events. failures...how much was due to lack of communicatiOn or miscommunication mout the potential risks! 0 Numbers help...but are they realistic? Do they mean anything? Example System Class enrol“: Perform risk analysis on the day-to-day operation of Rogers Hall 0 List potential failures/events. risks (uncertainties?). consequences 0 Rank consequence from low to high (rank l-S) 0 Rank liicelihood from low to hip: (rank I-S) a Place on a S by 5 chart (likelihood vs consequence) Closing Thoughts Most industries deal with risk on a regular basis The number of risks taken/ach and the impact of that decision depends greatly on the domain. situation Most acknowledge risk and uncertainty as one of the “fuzziest” aspects of their decision making process during desigi and development Most admit that prior knowledge or an expert is their nnin means 0! assessing risks (identifying them. deciding whether to do anythingaboucMand whatto do aboutthem) Most state that a formal and (believahly) quantitative means to do risk analysis would be of gut benefit. but do not believe that it can be done ...
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Vibration - ME SIS Risk Based Design Prof lrem Y.Tumer...

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