MC - Geog 503 Spatial Uncertainty Analysis $ Monte Carlo...

Info icon This preview shows pages 1–3. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Geog 503. Spatial Uncertainty Analysis & $ % Monte Carlo method Consider the following equation quantifying the dose D of tetrachloroethylene (in mg kg day ) received by an individual as a function of other pertinent variables: D = C × IR × ED BW × AT where C: denotes the chemical concentration (in mg per liter) IR: denotes the ingestion rate of tapwater (in liters per day) ED: denotes the exposure duration (in days) BW: denotes the body weight (in kg) AT: denotes the averaging time (in days) we assume the following distributions (and fixed values) for the various variables: C follows a log-normal distribution, i.e., log( C ) N (1 . 6 , 0 . 3) . IR follows an Exponential distribution with parameter λ = 1 . ED follows a Gaussian distribution, i.e., ED N (13 , 1 2 ) . BW follows a Uniform distribution, i.e., BW U (50 , 100) . AT is fixed at 25,550 days (70 years). Lab assignment #3 (due 10/06) Eun-Hye Enki Yoo 1 of 4
Image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Geog 503. Spatial Uncertainty Analysis & $ % Monte Carlo method: parametric case 1. What is a base-case value for dose, assuming mean inputs? For the concentration C, assume that the mean is 5 . 0 mg per liter. 2. Perform Monte Carlo simulation from the respective distributions of the input variables. Use 100 draws from each distribution as your sample size. 3. Evaluate the uncertainty in dose due to the uncertainty of its inputs. Do so by calculating 100 simu- lated dose values using the 4 × 100 simulated values of the four input variables. Present/summarize your dose predictions. In your summary, apart from the distribution of simulated dose, include nu- merical values for the mean, std deviation, interquartile range, minimum and maximum. Assuming a regulatory threshold on dose of 0 . 02 mg kgday
Image of page 2
Image of page 3
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

What students are saying

  • Left Quote Icon

    As a current student on this bumpy collegiate pathway, I stumbled upon Course Hero, where I can find study resources for nearly all my courses, get online help from tutors 24/7, and even share my old projects, papers, and lecture notes with other students.

    Student Picture

    Kiran Temple University Fox School of Business ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    I cannot even describe how much Course Hero helped me this summer. It’s truly become something I can always rely on and help me. In the end, I was not only able to survive summer classes, but I was able to thrive thanks to Course Hero.

    Student Picture

    Dana University of Pennsylvania ‘17, Course Hero Intern

  • Left Quote Icon

    The ability to access any university’s resources through Course Hero proved invaluable in my case. I was behind on Tulane coursework and actually used UCLA’s materials to help me move forward and get everything together on time.

    Student Picture

    Jill Tulane University ‘16, Course Hero Intern