are157-homework-2-key

are157-homework-2-key - ()p.h . Lola CD 2006fl 2007/8 P Q...

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Unformatted text preview: ()p.h . Lola CD 2006fl 2007/8 P Q Revenue P Q Revenue Aug 8.89 12845 114192.1 10.1 9579 96747.9 Sep 9.04 10212 92316.5 10.2 14396 146839.2 OCt 9.86 13237 130516.8 11.1 16382 181840.2 Nov 10.2 11790 120258.0 11.8 11919 140644.2 Dec 1Q.4 13083 136063.2 11.7 20402 238703.4 Jan 10.4 18199 189269.6 12.4 19569 242655.6 Feb 10.1 12502 126270.2 12.6 14761 185988.6 Mar 10 13604 136040.0 13.6 14581 198301.6 Apr 10.2 11540 117708.0 14.6 12083 176411.8 May 10 11979 119790.0 15.9 12271 195108.9 Jun 10 9977 99770.0 16.5 8533 140794.5 Jul 10.1 10156 102575.6 16.8 8709 146311.2 mean 12427 123730.8 13598.75 174195.6 a. Quantities, multiplicative model Trend component = new mean/old mean .8112427 1.094291 ,.... (rose by over 9%) Forecast 200819 12931.9 13991.0 16888.8 13680.5 18996.1 21603.5 15561.8 16123.1 13520.6 13886.3 10642.4 10845.9 =13598 verage 0.86902 0.94019 1.13493 0.91261 1.21654 1.46176 1.04576 1.08347 0.90858 0.93316 0.71517 0.72884 Seasonalcomponems; 2006f7 2007/8 Aug 1.033636 0.704403 Sep 0.821759 1.058627 OCt 1.065181 1.20467 Nov 0.948741 0.876478 Dec 1.052788 1.500285 Jan 1.464473 1.439029 Feb 1.006035 1.085467 Mar 1.094713 1.072231 Apr 0.928623 0.888538 May 0.963949 0.902362 Jun 0.802849 0.627484 Jul 0.817253 0.640427 We see that Jan is the leading month for rice sales, in terms of quantity June and July have low levels of sales. b. Quantities, additive model Trend component = new mean-old mean =13598 Seasonal components; 200617 . 2007/8 Aug 418-4019.8 Sep-2215 797.3 Oct 810 2783.3 Nov-637-1679.8 Dec 656 6803.3 Jan 5772 5970.3 Feb 75 1162.3 Mar 1177 982.3 Apr-887-1515.8 May-448-1327.8 Jun-2450-5065.8 Jul-2271-4889.8 verage-1800.9-708.9 1796.6-1158.4 3729.6 5871.1 618.6 1079.6-1201.4-887.9-3757.9-3580.4 .8 -12427 ( 1171.8 (rose by 1172 x 1000 cwt) Forecast 200819 -..... 12969.6 14061.6 16567.1 13612.1 18600.1 20641.6 15389.1 15850.1 13669.1 13882.6 11012.6 11190.1 ./ Forecast 200819 181271.9 194853.2 257349.3 218183A 302873.6 358385.0 256060.9 274410.6 240834.1 2S6058.9 197984.9 204648.7 GV ~ Msv C- &.-/ cU~ c~t- ) &v-k stR~ to ~t'lth =174195.61123730.8 1.407859 " rC:::.. (rose by over 40%1) ~Q)'l . ~~ttl~+O~-1 ~~p~ ~ NUct~on. I.J~ r(~~ ~ ltU:u c. Revenues, multiplicative model Trend component = new mean/old mean Seasonal components: 2006f7 2007/8 Average 0.922907 0.555398 0.73915 0.746107 0.842956 0.79453 1.054845 1.043885 1.04936 0.971932 0.807392 0.88966 1.099671 1.370318 1.23499 1.529688 1.393007 1.46135 1.020523 1.0677 1.04411 1.099483 1.138385 1.11893 0.951323 1.012723 0.98202 0.96815 1.120056 1.04410 0.806347 0.808255 0.80730 0.829022 0.839925 0.83447 Aug 5ep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jan was leading month in both years, for revenues. Summer months are lower....
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