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are157-homework-2

# are157-homework-2 - ARE 157 Analysis for Production...

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Unformatted text preview: ARE 157 Analysis for Production Management Spring 2010 Homework 2 Due Wed., April 21“, in class 1. (10) The table below shows average monthly US farm prices for rice, and the quantity of rice marketed, for 2 recent crop years. Each crop year begins in August, and runs through the following July (similar to academic year Sept-August). Note data columns are in reverse order compared to our usual layout. Using this data, prepare the following forecasts. Use a spreadsheet to speed up the work! Note: “cwt” means “hundredweight” which means “100 lbs.” So '30 “Mr : PACQ 2007/08 """_-“2ooe/o7 a 11000 abut : Céqu/uhh/V 1.000 cwt 1,000 cwt \$1M slam 10.10 9,579 8.89 12.845 10.20 14.396 9.04 10.212 11.10 16.382 9.86 13,237 11.80 11,919 10.20 11,790 11.70 20.402 10.40 13,083 12.40 19.569 10.40 18,199 12.60 14,761 10.10 12,502 13.60 14,581 10.00 13,604 14.60 12,083 10.20 11,540 15.90 12,271 10.00 11,979 16.50 8,533 10.00 9.977 16.80 8,709 10.10 10,156 a. Forecast 2008/2009 quantities by month, using time series decomposition, multiplicative model. For full credit, show the trend component; seasonal component for each month, and the 2008/09 forecast values. b. Rgpgat your Quantity forecasts from part a, but using the additive model. Parts c and d do not need to be solved for homework credit. (So, don’t turn them in) Their answers will be shown on the key, though, to give you another example to study. Note that it is likely to be more accurate to calculate Revenue = P*Q ﬁrst, then forecast the next year’s revenue from the result, instead of forecasting P and Q separately ﬁrst and then multiplying the forecasts together (because with the latter, we have 2 different errors, multiplied together.) c. Now forecast 2008/09 revenues, using the multiplicative model (revenues = P*Q) d. Forecast 2008/09 revenues, using the additive model. Comment: World rice prices skyrocketed in 2008, because farm production problems caused the world supply to be unusually low. You may remember that some customers were hoarding large quantities of rice, and some stores limited the amount each customer could purchase. >mm‘uu mag 88 u. mognﬁsnamsga. ﬁglaxofmamsngawa. §§§§.§g§§.§§£§§28§335528322139833085035. gﬂiugoaaoaﬁaeaﬁg amggméggaﬁaboﬁgavagsimomESSogoﬂi. xleﬁsgagiagﬁdcagguguga.waging;§§§53ogiznmaooa§=8§§50=§§£§o839 IOZMEONX N ao§g&§.gg£§§§1§“guisbggﬂgaiaﬂzggumidis—min.m§wu§2§o358=§aoa§rooaoﬁ§<g. §§m§§g§8§.5¢gonaquuoiugbmggaﬁgaﬁuSgaggSSSoaxp m. 0330532555..agﬁgﬁkugmgiggxbvowzﬂauiﬁgagﬁg. woniﬁﬁgggoaaﬂgudguﬂagasggﬁ§§v mongﬁogglgagrgaséaazgwﬁgagv 63.9.9306 3383353.: 830:. .26?8:693Eocooaaaooﬁaﬁgaagazngu.Sigﬁgoaﬁwﬁggogﬁagg ggggaﬁanﬁmgus §§Eu§§3§ §§§§o<§3 §§_u§2§§3§§.§.8x&3 gm vqm 30mm mr<>ZdLu924m um.» 0.25m an no 3 130520 ><mm>0mm 3:38 35» 338%.! 33839 §s§mxvozmzd>r mzooqxﬁos: “\$35 ta. 2.» .53 n .3823 «.9 .u... oh «503° 5» Pa a nah nab o o.» Nd—hddeJ—l—id DUOVOU&UNJOOQVOGhUN-l 338333883618:3888888338338 3388838888338\$383 Saw 4 M a. man». :5 2022: £85. 5.8 can :03 3.8.6 m<mam 0. 3m mmno. 55m. .538 mason 5n» m «950 233.. 353 am 308 562 8 996: Seaman? .6850 an 3 Eu» 35.023 man .8350 :9: «ram 3% 33 38E :03 02:0 8 33m. m9. :5 SEQ 3883 3 :5 9603033. gaze 331m. :8 3.3. ._.<8xo.m 329.533 m<mBo¢ 353 953 w 968mg: @233. 0.93m 3m immxm m<>zm 3 3 36822 38839 M mm a m ..l---.|...§0<_zm ><mm>mmmalil \StSthOZmzdk. mZOOdIEQS: a w 90mb \$230 £23 £8. _s> £25 n m G 25 . . . .. Pm: oh 3 m an 3 m. 3 3 m. 3 3 m. 3 u ma a no m we 8 no 3 3 B 3 N5 8 3m .3 3 3m 3 3 nm .3 3 3 we 8 N5 8 3m 3 3 - 3m 8 8 w; .6 Nu NA no 8 Nu ~m nm 3 pm I we NV 3 nm an 3 aw 3 u: 3 mm 3 um u: 3 na am am am a 8 8 2 Nu ...
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