Lecture_12 - NR Econ Lecture 12 Today's topic Module IV:...

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NR Econ Lecture 12 Today’s topic Module IV: Endangered Species Conservation B. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Application: Snake River Salmon C. Benefit-Cost Analysis
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Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Definition: an analytical framework for finding the least-cost approach to achieving a particular policy or management goal Example: Recovery of Snake River salmon under the Endangered Species Act
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Salmonids listed under ESA in Pacific Northwest
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Cost-Effective Recovery Strategies for Snake River Chinook Salmon: A Biological-Economic Synthesis Background: -- threatened and endangered salmon in Snake R. -- spring-summer run chinook salmon -- cost-effectiveness analysis: least cost recovery strategies for achieving a given biological goal -- biological goal = population growth rate (lambda) -- the framework trades-off biological outcomes versus economic cost
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Integrating models Salmon passage model (down Snake and Columbia rivers) (biology) Population growth rate model (biology) Cost-effectiveness analysis (economics)
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● Background (cont.): -- potential recovery measures: - Caspian tern removal - predator removal near dams - eliminate human harvest - change/remove barge transportation - flow augmentation in river - reservoir drawdown at 4 lower Snake dams - breach the 4 dams -- “Recovery strategies” = packages of different measures >> How do we proceed?
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Biological Uncertainty How effective is transportation of juvenile smolts in barges around the dams? Sensitivity of results to “D value” Completely effective: D = 1.0 Relatively ineffective: D = 0.4 Current best estimate: 0.553 Relatively high D: rely on transportation Relative low D: stop transportation, and dam breaching also is relatively useful
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λ ∆λ %∆λ ∆λ/ $ λ ∆λ %∆λ ∆λ/ $ Baseline - $ 0.864 0.000 0.00% N/A 0.864 0.000 0.00% N/A Discontinue smolt transportation (2.250) $ 0.939 0.075 8.67% (0.03) 0.891 0.027 3.14% (0.0121) Maximize 3-dam transportation (9.060) $ 0.845 (0.019) -2.23% 0.00 0.861 (0.004) -0.43% 0.0004 Add McNary Dam transportation 0.863 $ 0.847 (0.017) -2.02% (0.02) 0.856 (0.008) -0.93% (0.0094) Flow augmentation
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This note was uploaded on 04/03/2008 for the course ECON 472 taught by Professor Moore during the Winter '08 term at University of Michigan.

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Lecture_12 - NR Econ Lecture 12 Today's topic Module IV:...

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