Bongaarts_etal_HIV_2008

Bongaarts_etal_HIV_2008 - Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked? John...

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Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked? John Bongaarts, Thomas Buettner, Gerhard Heilig, and François Pelletier WORKING PAPER NO. 9 2008 POVERTY, GENDER, AND YOUTH
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One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza New York, New York 10017 USA www.popcouncil.org pubinfo@popcouncil.org For information on Poverty, Gender, and Youth working papers, see www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/index.html This material may not be reproduced without written permission from the authors. ISSN: 1554-8538 © 2008 The Population Council, Inc.
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Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked? John Bongaarts Thomas Buettner Gerhard Heilig François Pelletier The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not neces- sarily represent those of the United Nations. This paper has not been formally edited and cleared by the United Nations. John Bongaarts is Vice President and Distinguished Scho- lar, Population Council, New York. Thomas Buettner is Assistant Director, Gerhard Hei- lig is Chief of the Estimates and Projections Section, and François Pelletier is Chief of the Mortality Section, Population Division, United Nations.
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A BSTRACT This study first reviews the highly diverse regional and country patterns of HIV epidem- ics and discusses possible causes of the geographic variation in epidemic sizes. Past trends and projections of the epidemics are presented next and the peak years of epidemics are estimated. The potential future impact of new prevention technologies is briefly assessed. A final section summarizes the future impact of the epidemic on key demographic variables. The main finding of this analysis is that the HIV epidemic reached a major turning point over the past decade. The peak years of HIV incidence rates are past for all regions, and the peaks of prevalence rates are mostly in the past except in Eastern Europe, where it is expected to peak in 2008. But owing in part to the life-prolonging effect of antiretroviral therapy and to sustained population growth, the absolute number of infected individuals is expected to keep growing slowly in sub-Saharan Afri- ca and remain near current levels worldwide, thus posing a continuing challenge to public health programs. No country is expected to see a decline in its population size between 2005 and 2050 that is attributable to high mortality related to AIDS.
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3 Over the past quarter century the HIV virus has spread to all corners of the globe, resulting in one of the deadliest epidemics of modern times. In 2007 a total of 2.1 million men, women, and children died of AIDS. The death toll will remain high in the future because 33.2 million individuals are currently infected and about 2.5 million new HIV infections occur each year (UNAIDS 2007). Most of these currently and newly infected individuals are likely to die of AIDS eventually, despite the increasing availability of treatment.
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Bongaarts_etal_HIV_2008 - Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked? John...

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