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335 reading2 - i CHAPTER 4 Demographic Data Mean Center of...

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Unformatted text preview: i CHAPTER 4 Demographic Data Mean Center of Population for the United States: 1790 to 2000 ‘ AROLiIftAI' \ A munvCi'Hlvvffl“OpulJllan l l l A | N Figure 4.1 Population Center of the United States Based on Data from the Deccnniul Censuses Soun‘e: US Census Bureau: http://www.census.g()v/ger>/www/cenpi)p/iiie;ixicrr.|ulf, accessed 2.006. SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ADMINISTRATIVE DATA Population Censuses \ t , , t SAVI ’L , S l 2 t The Census of the United States I I F l RVI Ys The Census of Canada The Census of Mexico REGISTRATION OF VITAL EVENTS COMBINING THE CENSUS AND VITAL STATISTICS Demographic Surveys in the United States Canadian Surveys Mexican Surveys Demographic and Health Surveys Demographic Surveillance Systems European Surveys 108 l l]; gro not kin an: lin mu C()l as m hei hut inh 5( Th gm of ma sta ter Ad Lil: Po Fo tht go (ihnplcr -| Demographic 1mm 1115'1'()I(I(I.\l \l N |R( .I-S l-INHAY: 'I'n .'\tii.1lhl'flf Nut m .\d|uxi-—'l'h.lt ls tluL‘ _ t) :U I N .-\| r N "? Iii-MU‘IRIWI “(i I,” h m. “FU‘IRM‘I m: \nutlnn r ». It huh ul \lmut mlnnh I.\"|-i 3R .\"|.-\ I It 1N SYH'I EM.“- l.l.‘i .lml rltv li.h. ( mulls l’mrmu | 11.1w.- nlf'unul ynu n urn-[y nl Hut. thllw f.1r :15 [ dL-scrmhul [hL‘ hismry nf pnpuhrinn grnwth .nul prm-‘idud ynu wnh .m nvwvicw Hf the WUI‘ILI‘N‘. pupniarmn unlnllnn. I do HUI: iml HMLV up lhrw numlwrw. nl cnurw. an In 31w. cluptur I discth rhu vnrluus kinda ur drnmgmphiu LidL‘l \w mlrnw :m m know what he luppanin}: in (In: world. I}: .umlyzr [11v dmmgmphy (II .1 Inn'tiulLH' musk-1y. wr nu'd m knuw hnw Inme pumpk- liw thx-rv. huw Hwy arr Lllhlrll‘lll't'Ll ;.:cn_a.:r:IpI1iL.11|y. how many .IrL- Ewing hum. how many .n‘vdy'mu, Imw In.my;1n' Illmillg imei hnw Infill}?.II’L‘HIIIVHIgUIH.111.“,11t -'n:1|rw.:~.n111\ 1hr hrginmug. [I m.- \\-'.'lIlI m mmwul Ihc mph-rim nl why things an: .}~Tl1\’)'.ll't‘.!t1\l IIIII In-ar dwcrihu what [In-y arr. wu Inm- m knuw .Ilmul‘ II'IL' sucinl. payclnal'nlmull. u'nmmnu. .I11d L-u-n phyxtml (lint-.IL'IH'Ixtics ul :hv pcnplc and [11305 Iu-ing «.mdini. l'ut'tln-I'mm'g'. \u' "usual to know l'hvw [lungs nut I'm: for thu prcwnr, hut fur 1h;- |1.I‘xl :Ix wrll. [H 11w I‘t'glll [hr discussitm. hnwvw'r, with murws nl' imaic Illl'urmJtinn .1lmul thus numhrrx uf Ining VL-uplv. I'HTIIIH, lelhs, .uul migrant». Hlllll't't‘H ul l)(‘llltl§il'il|)|li{‘ Della: I'hcprmmn-wul‘u'nlL|.II.1unpupulalinnam.-.mddislrihulinn..15. \u'll .h nn dunn- :_.:'.Iphu \[I'llL'llll‘l‘ .Iml L'hJI'JL'll'I'iNllL'R. Is Ilu' census of population. Am‘r .ln :wvrviL-w mt TI'IL' lu-‘mry ul ptlpllLHInll L'L-uxuws. [ W1“ Inky .1 L'Imcr husk .u (cums taking; in \hrth .\|'IiL‘I'|L'.l—{|'IL'ljlillk‘kl HIJIL‘H,(i.111.nl.1.;llld Mvvm. l'hu Iminr mmrw uf infnr m.1[inn m1 lhl.‘ pulmlJllun pr’m'wwn ul luriha .Iml dullha is' Ihl.‘ I'L‘gisft'dtinll nt' vital statistics. .Iillmngh In 4 TL-\\' uaunn'icx this [Mk i». .u‘gm11pliahrd I‘y population rcgis~ tcrs..1ml :11 1mm tll‘Vt‘EHI‘lHfi II.|[it)|1~ vim] vu-ntx .lrc l'HllllMH'd from sample surveys. Administrative dam .nui historical data prunqu much at {ht iut'm'lnatlun .Ilmul pup- ||1.HIl)Hkll.lTl_lil."I.1! [[u- lnml vai .Imi .Ilmul grownphic rimhllity .‘IIILI Inigramun. l’upulatiun Censuses Eur “mm-Iva. guwmmmrs Imu- wantnl m knuw how many pcuplu wen: umlur IhL-ir I'ulc. Ran-lg |I.I~. flu-Ir (urlmlry I‘t'L‘Il puluul |a_\' suu'lmhc gnnwrn. [mt rarhvr ~111\L'1'IIIT1L‘II!\ “mm-d In L-nnw \vlm thus tawny-ch wL-rv. nr rhuy wnmul ru ialmtify n-ncm'ml Lilmrcra .1I1LI wldlurn. ihu most direct way to find nut Imw many pcnplu hm; Mr 1» luumnt [llL-III.;1IIL1 wIn-n yml LII! rlmt 3.1m .m: mmlncting .1 population 'L'il‘ill‘u. ['Iu- Umtcd NJumls Llrfint» a wmm of pnpuldtitm 111an: spcul'imlly .15 "rhu 110 Part One A Demographic Perspective total process of collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time or times, to all persons in a country or delimited territory” (United Nations 1958:3). In practice, this does not mean that every person actually is seen and interviewed by a census taker. In most countries, it means that one adult in a household answers questions about all the people living in that household. These answers may be written responses to a questionnaire sent by mail or verbal responses to questions asked in person by the census taker. The term census comes from the Latin for “assessing“ or “taxing.” For Ro— mans, it meant a register of adult male citizens and their property for purposes of taxation, the distribution of military obligations. and the determination of political status (Start 1987). Thus, in /\.l). 1 19 a person named Horos from the village of Bac~ chias left behind a letter on papyrus in which he states: “I register myself and those of my household for the house—by—house census of the past second year of Hadrian (Iaesar our Lord. I am Horos, the aforesaid, a cultivator of state land, forty—eight years old, with a scar on my left eyebrow, and I register my wife Tapekusis, daughter of Horos, forty~five years old. . . . ” (Winter 1936:187). As far as we know, the earliest governments to undertake censuses of their pop— ulations were those in the ancient civilizations of Egypt, Babylonia, (Ihina, India, and Rome (Shryock, Siegel, and associates (condensed by E. Stockwell) 197(3). lior several hundreds of years, citizens of Rome were counted periodically for tax and military purposes, and this enumeration of Roman subjects was extended to the en— tire Empire, including Roman Egypt, in 5 B.(I. The Bible records this event as fol— lows: “In those days a decree went out from (Taesar Augustus that all the world should be enrolled. This was the first enrollment, when Quirinius was governor of Syria. And all went to be enrolled, each to his own city“ (Luke 2:1—3). You can, of course, imagine the deficiencies of a census that required people to show up at their birthplaces rather than paying census takers to go out and do the counting. And, in fact, all that was actually required was that the head of each household provide gow eminent officials with a list of every household member (Horsley 1987). In the seventh century ,r\.1)., the Prophet Mohammed led his followers to Medina (in Saudi Arabia), and after establishing a city-state there, one of his first activities was to conduct a written census of the entire Muslim population in the city (the res turns showed a total of 1,500) (Nu’Man 1992). William of Normandy used a simi— lar strategy in 1086, twenty years after having conquered England. William ordered an enumeration of all the landed wealth in the newly acquired territory in order to determine how much revenue the landowners oWed the goVernment. Data were recorded in the Domesday Book, domesa’ay being the word in Middle English for doomsday, which is the day of final judgment. The census document was so named because it was the final proof of legal title to land. The Domesday Book was not re— ally what we think of today as a census, because it was an enumeration of “hearths,” or household heads and their wealth, rather than of people. In order to calculate the total population of England in 1086 from the Domesday Book, you would have to multiply the number of “hearths” by some estimate of household size. More than 300,000 households were included, so if they averaged five persons per household, the population of England at the time was approximately 1.5 million (Hinde I998). The population actually was larger than that because, in fact, the Domesday Book does not cover London, Winchester, Northumberland, Durham, or mu are am of cat Do hoi for of km PM a p we FI‘t the b0 tht po frc of me d1( SC\ Ur fir: sta \V( foi G( pe otl et) [I14 sel in Chapter 4 Demographic [Jam much of northwest England. and the only parts of Wales included are certain horder areas ill-K. Public Records Office llllll }. The European renaissance hegan in northern Italy in the fourteenth century, and the Venetlans and then the Horentines were interested in counting the wealth of their region. as William had been after conquering England. They deyeloped a cat-ash: that eomhmed a count of the hearth and individuals. Thus. unlike the Domesday Book. the Florentine catasto of I437 recorded not only the wealth of households hut also data ahout each metnher of the household. In fact. so much in— formation was collected that most of it Went unexatnined until the modern advent of computers {l-lerlihy and Klaplseh—Zuher I983}. The value of a census was well known to Francois- de Salignac de La Mothe—Feneltm. who was a very Influential l-‘rench political philosopher of the late seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries. lie was the tutor to the Duke of Burgundy and much of his writing was intended as a primer of government for the young [)uke: Do you know the ntnnher of men who compose your nation? How many men. and how many women. how many lattners. how many artisans. how many lawyers. how many tradesneople. how many priests and Inonlts. how many nobles and soldiers? What Would you say ol a shepherd who did not know.r the sire of his flock? . . . A king not knowing all these things is only half a lsing. [quoted In Jones llllll: l Ill} By that descriptioln Louis XIV lthe “Sun King") and his grandson Lotus XV were only partial longst hecause the demographic eytdence now suggests that the l-rench population was growing in the eighteenth century. rather than declining, as Ihe royal advisors {Including the physioerat Qtiesnayi helieyed at the tune. l~'etielon's hooks and essays were Widely read in the early eighteenth century, which ushered In Ihe modern era of nation—states. in turn giving rise to a genuine quest for accurate population information {l lollingsworth 19h”. Indeed the term stdrtsttt' is derived trotn the (ierman word meaning “facts about a state.“ Sweden was one of the first of the European nations to keep track of its population regularly with the estahlish- ment in IN” of a cornlnned population register and census administered in each diocese hy the local clergy iStatistIka (fentralhyran [SwedenI I983]. Denmark and several Italian states [before the uniting of ltaly in the late nineteenth century) also conducted censuses during the eighteenth century ((Iarr‘Saunders [93(3), as did the United States lwhere the first census was conducted in 1739”). England launched Its lirst modern census in Hill]. By the latter part of the nineteenth century, the statistical approach to under- standing lnasiness and government affairs had started to take root I” the Western world itiassedy I969}. The population census began to he yieWed as a potential tool for finding out more than inst how many people there were and where they lived. tan-'ernments began to ask questions about age, marital status. whether and how people were employed, literacy. and so forth. Census data lll‘l colnhination with other statistics] have hecolne the " lenses through which we torm images of our soci- ety." Frederick Jackson lurnet‘ announced [his famous View on the significance of the closing of the frontier on the basis or data from the 1390 census. Our national alt-image today is coniirn‘led or challenged by numbers that tell of drastic changes Ill. the family" the increase in ethnic diversity. and many other trends. Winston —————————’~ 112 Part One A Demographic Perspective Churchill observed that “first we shape our buildings and then they shape us. The Inc same may be said of our statistics" (Alonso and Starr 1982:30). ml. The potential power behind the numbers that censuses produce can be gauged 2; by public reaction to a census. In Germany, the enumeration of I983 was postponed pet to 1987 because of public concern that the census was prying unduly into private & lives. Germany did not conduct another census until 2002, Well after reunification, and even then it was a sample census, not a complete enumeration. In the past few C0 . decades, protests have occurred in Iingland, Switzerland, and the Netherlands, as {ht I well. In the Netherlands case, the census scheduled for the l980s was actually can— Eh, celed after a survey indicating that the majority of the urban population would not so I} cooperate {Robey I983), and no census has been taken since. lloWever, the Nether- so lands maintains a population register, which I discuss later, so they do haVe good de- (ht mographic information even in the absence of a census. er] Since the end of World War II, the United Nations has encouraged countries to CC enumerate their populations in censuses, often providing financial as well as techni- or cal aid. Between I953 and I964, 78 percent of the world‘s population (including to that of mainland China) was enumerated by census. In the most recent census in: round (I 995 through 2004), 89 percent of the world’s population was enumerated, 3f based on data provided by the United Nations Statistics Division (2005). Figure 4.2 re maps the countries that had either a census or an in«place population register be— m tween 2000 and 2005. You can see that the poorer countries in sub-Saharan Africa 39 and central Asia are the places least likely to have been enumerated. gr The world’s two largest nations, (lhina and India, each conducted a census at b; the beginning of the twenty—first century. In November 2000, the (Ihinese govern~ p; ment undertook the most ambitious census in world history when it counted its th 1.26 billion inhabitants, l2 percent more than I0 years earlier (HIKE News 200i). fi, The task itself involved I0 million volunteer and government enumerators (Chang 0} 2000), nearly equivalent to the entire population of lielgium. 'l‘he year 2001 saw 5L St H tr at at si F. e: .p is ti - No recent census 3 :] Recent census b - Population register a ti Figure 4.2 Most Countries in the Conducted a (Iensus between 2000 and 2005 O Source: Adapted and updated by the .inthor from United Nations Statistics Harmon. 2007, I’o/m/n/zmi “ and Housing Censuses; Census [Lites [or all (fox/limes 2005 [cited 2007]. Available lmm http:// unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/stmrces/census/censusdates.htm, 0 Chapter 4 Demographic Data India well into its second [[10 years of census taking. the first census having been taken in IHXI under the supervision of the Ilritish. The Indian census used "only" 1.2 million enumerators to count l.l]27 billion Indians as of March 3.001. a 2.1 percent increase in population compared to II} years earlier [India Registrar General IX Census Llomtttissioncr .1001}. In contrast to India‘s regular census—taking. another of England‘s former colonies. Nigeria {the world’s 9th most populous nation), has had more trouble with these efforts. Nigeria’s population is divided among three broad ethnic groups: the Hausa~Fulani in the north. who are predominately Muslim; the Yoruba in the southwest, who are of various religious faiths; and the largely Christian Ibo in the southeast. 'l‘he I933 census of Nigeria indicated that the Hausa—Fulani had the largest share of the population. and so they dominated the first post—colonial gov- ernment set up after Independence in I960. The newly independent nation ordered a tensus to be taken in [96.1. but the results shoWed that northerncrs accounted for only .‘ill percent of the population. A “recount” in 1963 led somewhat suspiciously lo the north accounting for 67 percent of the population. This exacerbated underly- ing ethnic tensions, culminating in the lbo declaring independence. The resulting Bi- .n'r-an war 1 l 951—71)} saw at least three million people lose their lives before the [ho reioined the rest of Nigeria. A census in 1973 was never accepted by the govern« meat. and it was not until I‘m! that the nation felt stable enough to try its hand again at enumeration. after agreeing that there would be no questions about ethnic group, language, or religion, and that population numbers would not he used as a basis for governn‘lent expenditures. The official census count was 88.5 million peo— ple. well below the l Ill million that many population experts had been guessing m the absence of any real data {Ukolo I999). In March of zone, Nigeria completed its Iirst census since IWI, but not Without protests, boycotts, rows over payments to officials, and at least [5 deaths llalasr. 2006}. If the final count from the 3006 cen— sus conforms to demographic estimates, it should he about 130 million. The census \[CCI’L’d clear of questions about religion, but the .1003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey [see later in this chapter for a discussion of these surveys] suggests that 31 percent of these people are Muslim, while about 48 percent are Christian. and l percent practice some other religion {Nigeria Nation-.1] Population Commis~ won and ()RC Macro 2.004}. Lebanon has not been enumerated since I932. when the country was under french colonial rule {Domschke and (Boyer I986}. At the time there was a nearly equal number of (Ihristians and Muslims in the country and that. combined with the political strife between those groups, made taking a census a very sensitive political issue. llefore the nation was literally torn apart by civil war in the 19805, the Chris- tians had held a slight maiority with respect to political representation. But Muslims .ilniost certainly now hold a demographic tnalority. especially along its southern border. next door to Israel. The Israelis knew something of the demographics of that urea before they invaded it briefly in late 2006 because they had collected informa— tion about the population and infrastructure there during their military occupation of the region in the [‘Hills {Associated Press [983). I should note that censuses historically have been unpopular in that part of the world. The Old 'l'estatnent of the Bible tells us that in ancient times King David ordered a census of Israel in which his enumerators counted “one million, one 114 Part One A Demographic Perspective hundred thousand men who drew the sword. . . . But (liod was displeased with this thing [the censusl, and he smote Israel. . . . So the Lord sent a pestilence upon Israel; and there fell seventy thousand men of Israel“ (1 Chronicles 2|). Fortunately, in modern times, the advantages of census taking seem more clearly to outweigh the disadvantages. This has been especially true in the United States, where records indicate that no census has been followed directly by a pestilence. The Census of the United States Population censuses were part of colonial life prior to the creation of the United States. A census had been conducted in Virginia in the early |(a()0s, and most of the northern colonies had conducted a census prior to the Revolution] (U.S. (Iensus Bu~ reau 1978). A population census has been taken every l0 years since 1790 in the United States as part of the constitutional mandate that seats in the l louse of Reprv sentatives be apportioned on the bases of population size and distribution. Article | of the US. Constitution directs that “Representatives and direct taxes shall he apportioned among the several states which may be included within this union. ac- cording to their respective numbers. . . . The actual Enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States. and within every subsequent term of ten years, in such manner as they shall by law direct.” Even in I790 the government used the census to find out more than inst how many people there were. The census asked for the names of head of family. free white males aged 16 years and older, free white females, slaves, and other persons (Shryock ct Ll]. I976). The census questions were reflections of the social importance of those categories. For the first 100 years of census taking in the United States. the population was enumerated by US. marshals. ln I880, special census agents were hired for the first time. and finally in I902 the (Iensus Bureau became a permanent part of the government bureaucracy (Francese I979; llobbs and Stoops 2002). ’ie— yond a core of demographic and housing information, the questions asked on the census have fluctuated according to the concerns of the time. lnterest in internas tional migration, for example, rose in I920 just before the passage of a restrictive immigration law, and the census in that year added a battery of questions about the foreign—born population. In 2000, a question was added about gramlparents as caregivers, replacing a question on fertility, and providing insight into the shift in focus from how many children women were having to the issue of who is taking care of those children. Questions are added and deleted by the (Iensus Bureau through a process of consultation with (Iongress, other government officials, and census statistics users. ()ne of the more controversial items for the (Iensus 2000 questionnaire was the question about race and ethnicity. The growing racial and ethnic diversity of the United States has led to a larger number of interracial/interetlmic marriages and re|a~ tionships producing children of mixed origin (also called multiracial). l’revious cen— suses had asked people to choose a single category of race to describe themselves. but there was a considerable public sentiment that people should be able to identify themselves as being of mixed or multiple origins if, in fact, they perceived themselves in that way (Harris and Sim 2002). Late in I997, the government accepted the I‘CCC heri 200 Afri whc was dee] care ratl‘ cial care mes Uni of t sair que and plin nun det; thet Uni I‘Cc‘t 50| fort tiol eve che Thi buy hot (ic‘l req firs yea quc wh lon clus obt ind of % wil rea (Ihapter 4 Demographic Data recommendat’ion from a federally appointed committee that people of mixed racial heritage he ahle to choose tnore than one race category when filling out the (Census 3000 questionnaire. Thus, a person whose iuother is white and whose father is African American was ahle to check hoth “White” and “Black or African American,“ whereas in the past the choice would have had to he made hetween the two. ‘I‘here was still a separate question on “I Iispanic/liatiiio/Spanisli Origin“ identity. An even deeper controversy concerns the question of whether “race“ is even an appropriate category to ask ahout. theri (ZUUI) argues that hecause race is a social construct rather than a hiological l'act’, it should he treated dillerentl} than it currently is in so cial statistics, and llirschman, Alha, and l‘arley (100W suggest replacing the racial categor) iii the census with a question ahout “origins,” which mat he a more socially meaninglul war ol looking at the issue ol minority status within a soc iet)’. The census is designed as a complete enumeration ol the population, htit iii the United \tates ottl} a ten» ol the questions are actually aslted ol eiertone. lioi‘ reasons or economt; most items in the census questionnaire hare heeii administered to a I‘M) through l‘) illt Jll questions were Ll\l\t'(l ol all applicahle personse hut as the .'\lttt‘t‘tt'.ttt popttlation };t'e\\' sample ol households in the last several censuses. l‘rottt l and ('onggtess l\ept adding new questions to the ( Ieiisus, the s;l\’ttt};s ttl\‘t)l\t‘tl iii sam pling §;I‘t'\\“ and in I‘l-ltl the (:etistts Bureau hegzan its practice ol aslttntg onlt a small nttniher ot items ol all lttittfst‘ltttltls‘ and ll’sllljc: a sample ol households to gather more detailed data. l‘ortunatel)‘, there has heeii no sigzniticant loss in actiirac}. In ftlttth there \\ere lfw‘l million people counted in more than It)” million households in the United States. lhus‘ the sampling; ol one otit ol every si\ households in 100” nho recened a questionnaire \\ith detailed questions still yielded data lroni nearlt 50 million people. 'lihe itetns ol intormaiion ohtanied lroin eteryone are otten called the slioit lorm items and include hasic deitiogi’.iphic and housing: characteristits. l he qties rioiiiiaire lor t eiisiis lt)t)t) is reproduced as l'igzure lei. ‘lhe tirsi page itslss that ever)oiie in the household he listed hi name, nhteh allo\\s the ( ensus l‘aiieait to checlx tor duplicate ltsltlttts ol people (such as college students a\\.i\ trout lioniei. The |irst person listed is supposed to he soiiieoue in the household \\lttt H\\'tls‘ is huyinle,‘ or rents this housing unit. lhis person used to he lslltHVll as the “head ol household“ tand there is still a t.i\ c.1te;;ot‘t iii the Us tor such a pet‘soiiL hot the Census Bureau now relers to hint or her as the “househtilder.“ littorniation is then requested hit each person iii the household regarding: his or her relationship to the liii‘st person listed (the householder), st‘\, racial and ethnn tdetitiltcation. age and year ol hirth. marital status, and llispanic/l,atino/Spantsh oiitzm. lhese and the questions relating: to t haracterisiies ol the housing: unit comprise the short torni. i\ppro\iin.itelt li\e ottt ol si\ households |'L’tt‘t\t'tl the short hunt to llll out, \vl‘iereas one Ht si\ tahout I- percent ot households) were asked to complete the longer. more detailed questionnaire shown in liietire ~‘i. i. 'lahle 'l.| lists the items in eluded on the [1.5. (iensus ltltlt) tlltt‘slittttlt;tll't\ compared \\'|llt a list ol iiilorniaiion oht’ained hr the gout (iensus ol (Ianada and the ltltlt) t ensiis ol .\lt‘\lt(t, ‘lille tahle indicates \\’lttclt items are aslsed olierei‘)‘ household and which are .I\l\t'tl ol .1 sample of households. ,\ major change lor the 20“) (Ieiistis in the United States is that it will include old} the short lorm, with the detailed data henna collected‘ t‘\t‘tt as ton read thise throuin the outgoing; American (fommunity Survey which I tlisc tiss helon. IIS 53:25: . 53.: .0: D 0: U U: ‘0 52.. .< ,, carom Soon «coioav 3.5:; are: l v q n. “2,: ,umzotum 42 I . cot... 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Census Canada Mexico Mun Census Item 2000 2001 2000 Man Population Characteristics: mp; Age XX XX ymr Sex XX XX XX limp Relationship to householder (family structure) XX XX XX RU”, Race XX X l’wdr Hispanic origin X X l\IILl Marital status X XX XX I’lun Fertility XX _ 'I'elei Income X X XX M” Sources of income X X X Hm, Health insuranee XX y“. Joli heneiil’s X My” Unpaid household activities X VJIH Iahor toree status X X XX splay Industry, oeeupation. and class of worker X X XX RH“ Work stains last year X ,MM Veteran status X NHL Grandparents as caregivers X hold Place of work and journey to work X X XX saril ~lourney to work X X Vehicles availahle X Ancestry X X “1" Place of birth X X XX a)” Birthplaee of parents X kwc} (fiii/ensliip H I ~ wh \ear ol entry il not horn in [his eountry X X J W I aneuaee spoken at home X X XX lam language spoken at work X H“. Religion X \ X m- 5 lidneational attainment X X X X tori School enrollment X X XX liut Residence one year ago (migration) X “I TJ Residence five years ago (migration) X X XX HI" International migration oI family memhers \ I” I Disability (aetivities of daily living) X X XX Housing Characteristics: WP Tenure (rent or own) XX XX rho Type of housing X X X X ([ln {I VIII/[III/I’i/J Chapter 4 Demugraphie Data I23 Table4.l L'enntinuedl XX Material used lnr eunstruetiun nf walls Material use-J l'tir eunstruetiun uf runl XX Material nsetl llll’ enlistmetiun nl lluurs XX Repairs needed on struetute X Year structure Inuit X. X X Units in structure X Remus in unit X X XX Bed H II ilns X X XX Kitchen Iaeilities X XX I’lumliing laeilities X XX l'elephnne in unit X X Material pitssessluufi I'I'V. radio. ere.) XX House heating luel X XX Year muted intu unit X Farm rL’sltlt'llL't' X Value X Seleetetl monthly owner ensts X X Rent X X __._—— Nate: \X - lneltttletl and asked tii ensns may he different; similar eategnrt every lttlusehnld: X = Included hut asked u'l unlv .1 sample n! house- hulels. Questions asked un eaeli e es of questtmts asked do not twee-v sarin mean strict eunlparalttlitv ul data. :isus ulitains aeettrate infnrntatiun from everyune. But the lirst question that d to he included in the census? Are visitors to the absent from the enttntty nn eensus day to he ln theme. a ee eenstn \t‘nrkers have tn ask is: Whit is suppose enuntry to he inehuled? r'\re people who are excluded? are several ways to answer that question. and each prntluees .1 phl't'lll'mlly tlillerent tutal nuniher til people. At one extreme is the concept of the dc laclo popu- lation. wltieh emmts penple wltn are in a given tetritnry nn the census day. (\t the uther extreme is the de iure population. which represents peuple who legally "belong" to a given area in mine way or anuthet. regardless nf whether they were there an the day of the eensus. l-‘ur countries wtth h-w foreign workers and where Working in annther area is rare. the tlistitietiun makes little tlillerettee. llut tn.th mutttties. ittelntling nearly all of the (Bull states in the Middle iiast. have large numbers at guest \Mll'lu'rh lrmn uther enuntrtes. and thus have a larger th.‘ laetn than de iure populatiun. ()n the other hand. a ennntry sueh as Mexico. from which migrants regularly leave tetnpnrarily tn gu in the llllll'L'kl States. has a tit: int-e population that is larger than the tie Eaetn. Must euuntttes {including the United States. Canada. and Mexienl haVe nth atluptetl a enn- eept that lies somewhere hetween the extremes nf tle faeto and de iure. and they Include penple in asis ut usual residence, which is mugth defined as Who Is Included in the Census? l‘here the census cm the it usually sleeps. (Stillege students whu live away 'ege address rather than being euttnted itt their pare [the humeless. including migratory workers. the place where a petstin from home. for example. are ineluded at their eul- nts‘ household. l’enple with an usual residence vagrants. and "street people") are euunted where 1 4- 4 Part One A Demographic Perspective they are found. On the other hand, visitors and tourists frotn other countries who “belong” somewhere else are not included, even though they tnay he in the country when the census is being conducted. At the same titne, the concept of usual residence tneans that undocumented immigrants (who legally do not “belong” where they are found) will be included in the census along with everyone else. Where you belong became a cottrt issue following (Iensus 2000 in the Unirt-tl States. The (Iensus Bureau included in the census members of the military and the fed— ' eral government who were stationed abroad. 'l‘hey were counted as belonging to the state in the US. that was their normal domicile, and this tttrned out especially to ben-~ efit North (farolina. However, Utah filed suit in federal court, ohiecting that Mormon missionaries frotn Utah who were serving abroad should also be counted as residents of Utah, rather than being excluded hecattse they Were living outside the llnited States. In 200], the US. District (Iourt ruled against that idea, and so North (Iarolina gained a seat in (Iongress on the basis of its “overseas residents“ while Utah did not. Knowing who should be included in the censtis does not, however, guarantee that they will all he foitnd and accurately counted. There are several possible errors that can creep into the enumeration process. We can divide these into the two broad categories of nonsampling error (which includes coverage error and content error) and sampling error. Coverage Error The two most common sources of error in a census are coverage error and content error. /\ census is designed to count everyone, hitt there are always people who are missed, as well as a few who are counted more than once. The com hination of the undercount and the overcount is called coverage error, or net census undercount (the difference between the undercount and the overcount). /\s l discuss below and in the essay that accompanies this chapter, there are several ways to mear sure and adiust for undercount, but it becomes more complicated (and political) when there is a differential undercount, when some groups are more likely to be uan dereitumerated than other groups. In the United States, the differential undercount has tneaut that racial/ethnic mi nority groups (especially African Americans) have been less likely to be included in the census count than whites. 'l'able 4.2 shoWs estimates of the net undercount in the last several censuses, along with the differential undercount of the black population. The overall undercount in the I940 census was 5.0 percent, and you can see that it has been steadily declining since then as the (Zensus bureau institutes ever more so phisticated procedures. But you can also see that in I940 more than l0 percent of African Americans in the country were missed by the census. 'l‘his was the year that the differential undercount was discovered as a result of a “somewhat serendipitous natural experiment“ (Anderson and liienherg l99922‘l). because of World War ll, men were registering for the draft when that census was taken, providing demogra phers with a chance to compare census returns with counts of men registering for the draft. It turned out that 229,000 more black men signed tip for the draft than would have been expected based on census data (l’rice I947), signaling some real problems with the completeness of the census coverage in I940. Since then, a great deal of time, effort, and controversy have gone into attempts to reduce both the overall undercount and the differential undercount. The numbers in Table 4.2 show that (Iensus 2000 appears to have been tnore successful than any previous census in Tal the (lit .ttlt big ()lll 11);) No sttt stil‘ ctil for tbii Me (:L'I sus L'\l use (ch ma tba PU] tim titn nui the the (Ilutptcr 4 Demographic Data Tahic 4.2 3111 [halt-111111111 .1111l IJiH't-rrntiJl [11115110111111 111 11,5. ( 11-115mm lhfh-rvntt.1i tundra-1111111 \1-1 Utttlrm 11111: “111l1‘l‘1'lrltl1'l *p1~t‘1‘1-11t.11:1‘ 11111111 1|iII1-r1-111'1’ “11111111111111 Iur ul' 111.1111 111' \1'l1111‘ i‘l'lu't‘t‘l'l |1|.11'L .1111l ‘11'.1r 1111.1I pnpulnuun 1"'£.} pnpuhtinn 1"..1 punulntnm 1"..lt 1 \1i1111' 11111i1'1'1'1111111] [440 1'11 “Li il {.1 I‘Pqi] In! ".11 i..‘\' ‘i,.\‘ I‘M” Li SJ 3.? 1.11 1"?” I." H." 1.1 1.3 11-1411 1.4 in! 11.' 111 [991] LS i.— IJ -l.-| 1111111 1.1 3.1 [.11 1,1 In I'Jh'll .11'1- 1mm _\111|1'r~u|1 .1111! | 11-11I11-t1: t | ""‘J: |1iti1--l.ll;.111111|.11.111Ir I""l'|.11111.}illlil 111‘ [.1hi1- I11. Hu- 1111111'1'1'1111111 1111' I‘J-III ilmuuflt I""t} 1w Iuwd 1111 1I-'111-111,r.l|!in1 1m tltt- .\1111r.11'\' i '111-1'r.1_1'.1- .1111l I \.1|1:.1I1nn‘111r\1‘\. _\.1;¢r1.-1:|1.11,1 rur I'J-III tlurmu: 1mm Ruhmwn. \\'."1-~.I. .1111! \1li.11.i1.1 tllllL‘: 111.1111“. .1111l 1111' 11I11I1‘r11-11m fur Jill!” 1w |1.1~1-1| .“'l hr 11.1“ 1.11 I‘NII .1111i 1111!” r1‘|'|l'1‘~1'lll 1i11' mmhLuk pnpnhnnu 1 111M II1.111--§1r11111.1|l\ 1hr 11111111 pnpulJnuu. may 111.11 .1111111111.111i1-~. tl11~1 Ihih 1‘1';;.It‘1i. .md l 1111111“ t|11~1 last": 111 1111:1'1- tit-LIII 111 1311‘ 1 1113111111. {.1 1111.1111' is 11 ‘llitlfl‘Hx “It-1111111111111“ s11 l|1.tt 1'1'1'r}' hunwhuitl rru-n‘m .1 11111-1111111111111'1' .1111l Mung .1 1111:,I1—111‘111111- .111111-1'11511111 11111111111111 111-1111111111 111 11111111112119: .1 high rtwpumc 111 t|11- 111111] 11111 11111-111111111nir1'. More 111.111 twwthirtls [11? 111111-111} 11f huuwhnlds rt-spnndul 111 [I'll' 11141111111 1|111‘~.11111111.11r1- 111 1111111. .1111! 1111' rut wt-rr 111111111111] by rh1- t L1'11s115 Btu-mu 111 thv Nun—Rrspunw i-'11l|11w-U111NRI’U) |1|111w1-uf1l.-1t.1 1-11II1'1'111111. 'l 111' (1111111 151111.111 111-111 111111 111111111111» iutu 1|11- Ii11l1l 111 11111-r1'11rw 111-1111I1: who [Md 11111 11111111111111! inrms. .1111}. 111 5. 111 [11111 11111 .-1l111111 pumplt- whnm 1|11-_v wcrt- 1111.11111- 11) 131111.111. \Vlu-u 11111 11h 1111' 131': 1|111t 1111c 1111-1111111 cal 11 huuwhultl 111.11 11.1w Itllml in MW 111 1111r111-1-1i 111 1111-1111111» by .1 \'.11‘111_\ 111 111111111111». s111i1 11111.11'11114111-111'1' 'Ml'llt.‘ (.1511: mmlwinv tlus 11: 11111111111111 1111' .1l| huuwltultl 1111311111111, It 1» 121-11 In 511- why ~11 11111111- pcnplt' mutim‘i» 1hirtk thry haw nut bet-11 1111111111] 111 t|11' t‘l‘llfilh—NHIIIL‘UIII.‘ 1431- .tmwvl‘ui 1111' {ht-111. Measuring (Inverngc Error R1111" 11111.1 1-1111 .1r1- probably Ask-1111', Imurwlt ltuw 1111- 1.1-11111‘1 15111-11111 amid 11111-1‘ 111-14111 111 L‘Hllll‘ldtc 1111: 1111111l11-r 111' pruplu 111111111! 111 -.1 1'1-11- 1115. H111. i1 11111 .111 11-131- 1.1\k. .1111! a111ti~11111111~1 11111111 [1,.‘1. .1111lntl11‘r 1-11111111‘111s 11.11-1- '\'p1'1‘11111'ttl1-1l 111th .1 1111111|11°r 111'1111-tl1111inm'1'r 1|11- wan. I'l11' twn pnnnpnl 1111'ti1111ls 111.1:11 .111 1 H dcmtmraphic analysis {DA}. .1111! 1'11 dual-system estimation (USE). [111‘ 111-11111111‘11111111‘ analysis 1111111111111 1151"». 1l11- demographic balancing equation It) 11111 :11;1r1- 1111.11 tl11- pnptlhtlntl .It 1511‘ 11111-111 1c11~11~ almuhl 11.1w i11-1-11. .1111i 1111-11 1'111111111r1-1. 111.11 1111111|11-r1111|11-.11'111.tl 11111111. 1111‘ 1I1-111ugrnplti1' h;l|.ll‘lt.’lll]..'. 1111111111111 1.11» that I|11‘ pnpulntinn .11 111111' 1 1s 11111111 111 1111: pupulatmn .11 111111: I I‘Iitlh the births hum-111111 111111- I .1111! .1. 111111111. tilt: 1|1u11|111 [11111-1111 111111- | .11111 I, 111111 1|11- 111 migrants I11'1w1'1'11 time I .11111 .1. 1111111151111: 1:111 unmann-|11'tw1-1‘tttim1' l .1111I 3. Hum. it 111' Lunw II11‘ 1111mlw1' nl pcnplc 1111111 I|11' prvwnux 1'1-11stt-1. 1111* 11111 .11l1l 1l11~ 1111111|11-r11t births sinu- 1111-11. sulttiau't 1111- 1111111|11-r 11l'1l1-11tl1s s1111'1: then, Add thc 1111111|111r111 111 111113.111“ “1111- 111111, .1111i a11l111‘111't tl11- 11111111111 11! 11111-111111r.11111. 1.11111-tin-1111111111111111'\1'i1.1tth1'tnt.1i I26 Part One A Demographic Perspective TO ADJUST OR NOT TO ADJUST—THAT IS THE QUESTION; OR IS IT MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING? The differential undercount, which I discuss in this chapter, mntlers for many reasons in the United Sixties. tn the first place, these cerriinunities tltrtt :tre less well counted will receive less li,>gislntive representation as a result of censusvbnsed fil)pt)l’~ tienment and redistricting, They Will (tlfIO strind e lose out in the distribution el populztitan—buserl lundtng from federal or state governments Alse iiu portant is the fact lltiil these whe tire typiciity missed in the US. censuses incltittiitii e:;pei:i;i ty AlricattAmericzius {llltl Hispanics; (tit) mere likely to vote for Demecrzilir: cundirtiites thiin fer Republi can candidzites, llizit puts the i:;1;iie el Ilte ililleiei ital undereetint very much in the peliltitzit f1|)t)llttj fl :is (,‘Itijlt census tells; {liOlllHl Census. Pittttt writ; (it; politiezilly churned us my census; ever unit It itentieveity seems likely le spill ever title the 20 0 Census. A let the tutti) census; the Census Bureau hiid etetltieut zt :;t;t el very detuiled aidiusted numbers, reflect iii; llt(‘ ffiiirenu's estimates of underceuitl by (tile Ellltl wee/ethnicity for each county in tlte tlnitiit Stiles. However, the US, Deprirtineul til Cetttineree (the bureaucracy Within which the (Zen sits Bureziii is housedi and {II lltitl time |te;iilerl lJV :i Rt;le)llC’ifl in the George H W, l'illfllt .iilitiinitttii lien) had refused to |lllll\(3 the lt(lllli§l(ltl ltttlttlttrtf‘. “ellictal” So the étfljlllrlttl numbers; Were there. lllll were Wet tisisit let iiitpertieititteitt, redistricting, er the ilslriltiitien el {)OVf‘IllIllilllllll tesetirttes Ilzirl llte zitttusliiteitls; l)(,‘(lll utziile iu lflflt)‘ llte stnles (ll Wineriuniit .iiiil lr’ettitsylvziutri would irriitli ltthtT lest zi ‘K‘ill in (‘lettriress zittrl Citlllitl‘ltli’t :iiiil Ari/rind weiilrl ()it(‘,lt llélVU (iriiued it ilttftl llie ili‘i1i51iittt tiiil ti) Ittlllttll senile-d :i flurry el lJlWi.llllt}. el <:itiii:;e, and iii 19% the U 53. Supreme (ieurt ltn:t|ly rulerl Ullrtltllllifllfily tltrit the Census Hurenii wrir‘, under llt) legal eblirizitien tr) ztdiust the liiiiil liriiires, despite the acknowledged undereeuitl el tlll)ittt iuiiteiity grout) ittembers (Brit'rett lttifli) Yeti might well llttlth lllill .t lllléiltlllltttfi‘. Supreme Cetit’l ileiiirneu thlll(l settle :itt lfHLlltl, ltiit yeti W()lfl(l he wrenri tit lltlf; rinse tier:ziii:;i~ iii the niezinltnti: the liensiit; Hittetiii liiirl (teeiiliiil te llll‘-.ll lllliit(lVl()f2()llt}lt;\llIVllltINilllflllillAttiltliflllyttllitll enees‘. (I iliiii)ii:;len iittil iir:ltiill/e littlliv Nilllftltlll l'it,‘1;(,‘.’tl't1lt(itnltltltl lflttit Wlitte illlll lillf;| lll‘lr’) :itiil riitiiiiutieetl lliiil ltll (lensun I‘tttttt ll Illli‘lttlt‘tl ll) use i;l;iltslt<:zil fiitllltflllttl littilllttftlltk‘} ll) tlfiillltltlt' .iiiil iii r:|ttilethirst:piritpli:wliitwirii:itlliiiWim-itii:,:.ivil Irv lllt‘ i:ett:;ii:; eitiiiui‘irittiiit llits it. it ptiii‘iiur, lulfl‘Wlt its; 2;ziiitt)liitri lttt iiiiitti::;piiii:;i.~ lltllltW up (i 3t-»l|i‘l lllltl yeti levers; til :ii:tr>iiyittr;l, lllt‘ ltii51ii‘ ltlt'it wxis lli;il rztlltei llitin |i;iyinii it Iittillt‘lllllltt‘ltllltlll irllley lit (:E;llltti’tl(t lt()W trinity piziiiile wt It‘ llllftflt'll try tlw census, the siii’Vey pieimtu, thtlltl l)t't‘ttlllt‘ putt ttl the census (lttll lltut; Ilium» wliii Wl‘tl' i-rtliuiutwil lit lt/ive lteeu lItf.5tl!(l wittilil ltt' tttiliiili'il llt llit‘ llllill itittiitl lllf1lt‘riltlttlllt‘lllllliilllttltlt‘tldlltllitllilltitrvtl litter llii‘liiiililiiitinliiietlietluuleiiitiiii'iiittitiiwittiiit liir used It) tiltlitiit lllt‘ lii';t flit itttmiit Ill tt‘ ittlttllfd‘ft‘ lttll llie lzi‘,| llt iti’tt‘i‘itl (lltt‘ iiuilly lltllll ltlltllll[)(31)[)lt?)Wt)lllllltt‘t'ftlllllltll‘tl ltttlllrliillllt‘ (/litltttlt) ltitti:.itltitltl:;) :;.iiiittli survey llii', ltlt‘il upiiilwil :i tltr‘N lliiitv lll littltljlt‘fi‘il'lltml lflrtlllldlt“. ttlttl l;iw:;tiit:; (lit Ullt‘ utite ttl llttt tl(‘ll.’flt' \Nl‘lt‘ llltl‘.t‘ Iltt‘lll lltliltttli:tllltlltfilf.\iVllltl/i/rllllllilllttH-llitlilllitllll‘ , itii :iilitir;luii:tt|) Wlllllfltil‘Wl tittil \Nlllt titlitiiliiiiit ltill‘, in (lending; ll) liiiltiil llti‘ (ii-ii:.ii:, ltiiiiuiii liiiiii fill'lltillllfl any Illttllt"/ t'VI‘lt en pliiiiiiiiri lttl ‘litlll pliiiri (ltull lttft/t itiiittimt lltrt“.i* iiiivntliwi‘mttLiiti iii ::.:, Weir; tlt liltil, Illtlllltfilllt] llt.il llii: tllft’t‘ltltlitl iteiiuiis; lie It‘lllltTt‘tl lll it li'w llllt‘tilltlltft lllJtl t’ttllltl pttptlltifltm ceunt sheuld have been. /\ cempuisen Hi this number with the ‘Iklllill census cetmt PI'()VILlL‘\‘ ;t clue as l() llIL‘ accurate)» ell tht' t‘t‘nsus. llsmt; llIt‘Nt‘ nit-thirds, the (Icnsus Bureau is ;ll)lL‘ [0 piece together A crimpesitt- rendering el \V‘lLII the pepu l;tti()u “should” leek like. I)illtrenccs from that plL’lllt‘t‘ .tud the one IMIIIIIL‘kl hi the (L'IISllS can he used its estimates el under— or ever L‘IIlIIIIt‘I‘JIIItHI. It! IIIillsllllL; lllt‘\t' L.Il L’tiliitiens lei" till age, si:\, :lltd racial/ethnic ureups. we tum .u'riw .u .m L‘SllllIillk‘ el the possible undcrcmmt ;1|II(>II:.L Vitrieus groups iii [lIL' pttplllrtllttlt. ()t CUlII‘HL‘, it we de net have an accurate ceunt elk lttt‘ths‘ duiths, .md migrimis‘, then our demi)gmphic—nnnlysis estimate may itself he wrung, se this int-thud requires til ( WEI L310 t’Ltli GUI ll’lti SiSl lltt‘ OW Cei bet lell Sltr: Ollli inri Pelt ni)l Cer deli siei whi just the apt can ever witl due witl Mitt; SUIT Uni I'L'IIII .III.-IIIIIIII II) II'II' IIII.IIII_\ III IIII.‘ IIIIII II-IIxIIs II.II.I. .\|III.I \IIII \H. \\II\ ~|IIII:|I! m- '- "'.I I.II\I' .I. IL-an-Ix II \\I- IIIIIIL \\l' I .III I'HIII'IIJIL' IIII' IILIFIIII‘I r III IIIIIIIII- IIIIII'I‘ .ILK III'.III'II III:IIIII II? IIIL‘.IIIH\\I|'!‘1III.I'.IiIL‘iIL'IIIIJILI'JIIIIh .III..1I\I.II. .III’I‘JILIIII 'IIHII IIII I-IIII III'II ..._'I.I~ .III I\I|IIIIIII' III II‘IL' IIILII IIIIIIIIII'I' II! III'I-IIII' III .IIII .IL'IL. \l'\, I.Ix|.II."l'III!‘II|. -,:;IIIIII. IrIIIIIII III'm IIIIIIIII .I u .I\ III LIII I\\ III}; IIII' lIl'IIIIIH I II [III- IIIIIIIII.III:III- -\\ III. II I\ \\ ILEI \\ II I'I.IIII II'IIIII IIsLI L.l'“\“'\ IIIIt'xllIIIIII.III'LI. IIII' IIII.1I HIHIL'III \‘NTIIIIIIIIIIIII II'N'IIIIJII |II\III\'\'\ IIIIIIIHIIIII: IIII' I.\'I‘J'\II‘- I'IIIIIIII-I \HIII II'.‘.t‘ IIIIIL'I' x: IlII'LII' :II IIIIIII'IIMIIIIII .IIII IlII IIIl‘ I‘I-III’IIII L'IIIIIIIL'LI. .\|IL‘I I L'|I\l|\ _1I"IIJII III IIII' : :It'LI\I.IEl'H.Ihl'{I k'II'Vth IIIIII'I‘JII IIIIIIII'IIIL'IIIILI IIN.\\\'1!I'.]I\ .IIHI I II\III'.I_:I_L' | \.IIII.IIIIIII .‘ - .. -I._. I.|I.IIIII:I' 4 Demographic llnm |.I I II'. II ' I III .II'.- .II I ’I: II ’I' II 'I‘I I ' .‘ :I' I I III I I -I'-| II II:. I I I IIIII I I '- III II I I-._| | I II ..r.I I 'II :r III _" |I I'I ' . I'l ' .I I I. . I I II I II. - III. .I, II I | I. II .II I II-I-‘I I ' I I; .I III I I I'I-I -!II.II--. I I I I II II II' II' I I' I‘.‘ I . ' I- II: I'. I'II I'IIIIII I I II I. '_f .".| 'I ,I II I'III'IIIII I "I I III 'I'I II "I ' I ' II I I ' !" J 5 III ' I' .I' II I ' I I , I III 'I... I I|:II. ’ III : I I I . II. I III . '; II I I I i] '. I ' II III III-I-I-I' . .I llI'III I II ;. . ‘I I‘I I .II'I III II ' 'Ir I II I I’I II I ’ I III " III. II I III I I III II. I I | l I I; I ' I 'I II I: III' II II I. .I I l I' "I II IIII I I II. I 'I- I. II . :I' | I ' ' I I.I II. 'III I II‘ I. I I: ‘_.I III I . I. I " {I I. I III'I_I III I ' lI "I I."I :I. I II ' I I IIII|.. I. : I "I ' ' II II ..I I I I I I I' ' I I I I 'I I ' I I I .- I. I . I '- I-II. -.II EI II' .I III I I'!:I II I III : 1- . I I I I I- I I ..1 .- I : II ' I II. I I "I I M I . ‘I -. I I 'i I I I II II I' I' I" I I II' | I " | I ‘I' "' 'III“ 1" II I "I I' ' I I ' II'II I 'I I I I II I I I'. . I . I-. I III .. I. I I . ' " II I.|III.' 'I ::I III II; I‘ II _~I-I I II II I I.- I. I. I I I;_I I I: . I ' I I II 'I. I I I I I' ' I . II I | I II',’ ' II I I : " "I I ' ' .I; I .I I I I, -i I II I I II II II I I: '.I;:'. I: I‘" 128 Part One A Demographic Perspective (A.C.E.) Survey, which was similar to, alheit larger than, the pt>st—enumerati<in survey (PES) conducted after the I990 census. This involved taking a carefully constructed sample survey right after the census was finished and then matching people in the sample survey with their responses in the census. This process can determine \rvhether hottseholds and individuals within the households were counted in hoth the census and the survey (the ideal situation); in the census htit not in the survey (possihle hut not likely); or in the survey hut not in the census (the usual measure of underenumeraA tion). ()hviously, some people tnay he missed hy hoth the census and the suryey, hut the logic underlying the method is analogous to the capture—recapture method used hy hiologists tracking wildlife (( Iholdin W‘H). ‘l‘hat strategy is to capture a satnple ol an) iinals, mark them, and release them. later, another sample is captured, and some ot the marked animals will wind tip heing recaptured. The ratio of recaptured animals to all animals caught in the second sample is assumed to represent the ratio of the first group captured to the whole population, and on this hasis the wildlife population can he estimated. Although sortie humans are certainly “wild,” a few adiustments are re~ quired to apply the method to human populations. The (Iensus Bureau used both the l)/\ and the D515. approaches in e\aluating the accuracy of (Iensus Z000 ((Ilark and Moul 1003; Rohinsolt, West, and .\d|aklta 2002). Note that the dual—system estimation approach also provides a way or testing for content error by comparing people‘s responses on the census questionnaire With their answers to the ptist~enumeratitm survey questionnaire. Content Error Although coverage error is a concern in any census, there can also he prohlems with the accuracy of the data ohtained in the census (content error). (Iontent error includes non—responses to particular questions on the census or inacw curate responses it people do not understand the question. lirrors can also occur ll. information is inaccurately recorded on the form or if there is some glitch in the pro cessing (coding, data entry, or editing) of the census return. By and large, content error seems not to he a prohlem in the US. census. although the data are certainly not (00 percent accurate. There is always the potential (or misunderstanding the meaning of a question and these prohlems appear to he greater (or people with lower literacy skills (lversen, l'tll'stettherg, and Bel/er I‘J‘N). In general, data lroni the United Nations suggest that the more highly developed a country is, the more ac curate the content of its census data will he, and this is prohahly accounted (or largely hy higher levels of education. Sampling Error It any of the data in a census are collected on a sample hasis (as is done in the United States, ('anada, and l\le\ico), then sampling error is introduced into the results. With any sample, scientifically selected or not, differences are likely to exist hetween the characteristics of the sampled population and the larger group from which the sample was chosen. However, in a scientitic sample, such as that used in most census operations, sampling error is readily measured hased on the mathematics of prohahility. lo a certain extent, sampling error tan he controlled~ samples can he designed to ensure comparable levels of error across groups or across geographic areas (US. (Iensus Bureau 1997). Not1~satnplitig error and the hiases it introduces throughout the census process prohahly reduce the quality ot results more than sampling error (Schneider 1003). Conn data llnite heen (if stu lfiure; eluiiu with Survc ancll Jentu htiusi to pr provi at te htnim lectet The t The Franc to-dt tweet and t tics ( Nort regul to th censt perm ( ment years mant simil staye surei' just I recen holds State hold I99] ition i l arvcy ucted n the ether :nsus e but nera— J, but ed by it an— ne of 315 to : first Chapter 4 Demographic Data Continuous Measurement—American Community Survey Almost all the detailed data about population characteristics obtained from the decennial censuses in the United States come from the “long form,“ which for the past several decades has been administered to only ahout one in six households [see Table 4. l l. The success of surveir sampling in ohtainiilg reliahle demographic data has led the US. (Census Bureau to undertake a process of “continuous measurement" that is expected to eliminate the need for the long form in subsequent decennial censuses. heginning with the Bill!) ('ensus. The vehicle for this is the monthly American (Lommunitv ‘iurvev. which the Census lhtreau implemented on an experimental basis in 1996 and has heen expanding ever since lMather, Rivers, and lacohsen 3.005; 'l'orrieri and ,Iennifet lllllll; Torricri 300?}. This is a “rolling survey" of three million American households each year‘ and it is designed to collect enough data over a Ill—year period to provide detailed information down to the census block level, and in the process provide updated information on an annual basis, rather than having to wait for data at ten-vear intervals. Just as with the census. questionnaires are mailed out the households selected for the sample. and if they are not returned. the data are col- lected liy phone. or hit a perSonal visit from the (Jenstis Bureau. The Census of Canada The first census in (Ianada was taken in lfihfi when the I-‘reneh colony oi New France was counted on the order of King Louis XIV. This turned out to he a door- ro-door enumeration of all 1,2 I S settlers in (Laiiada at that time. A series of wars be“ tween England and France ended with France ceding (lanada to England in U63. and the British undertook censuses on an irregular hut fairly consistent basis {Matis- tics (lanada lWSl. l'he several regions of Canada were united under the British North America Act of “£67. and that Act specified that censuses were to he taken regularlyr to establish the number of representatives that each province would send to the House of (Ioinmons. The first of these was taken in “WI. although similar censuses had heen taken in ISSI and IBM. li'i [905. the census liureaii l‘Iecarne a permanent government agency, now known as Statistics Canada. (Ianada began using sampling in I‘MI, the year after the United States experi- mented with it. In [9%. (Zanada conducted its first quinquennial census leverv five years. as opposed to everv 1i) years—the decennial census], and in 19?! (Janada mandated that the census he conducted every live years. 'l‘he US. Congress passed -imilar legislation iii the [9?le hut never funded those efforts, so the United States iiayed With the decennial census until the recent implementation of continuous mea— slll'L‘l'l'lL’llt provided by the American (.‘onnnunitv Survey. Two census forms are used in (Canada. as in the United States—a short form with inst a few key items (see Table 4. I] and a more detailed long form. in lillll. and more recently in lit-Uh, the long form went to a sample of in percent of (Ianadian house- holds. Public opinion miluences census activities in tanada. as it does in the United \tates. and so the I996 Census ot Canada included a set of questions on unpaid house~ hold activities because of a Saskatoon housewtfe‘s protest. She refused to fill out the I99! Census lorin land risked going to iail as a result} lie-cause the census form's delin- iiion of Work did not include household work or child care. This helped to galvanize 130 Part One A Demographic Perspective public opinion to include a set of questions on this type of activity in the 1996 census (De Santis 1996), and those questions have been repeated in subsequent censuses. ()n the other hand, the Canadian government decided that the number or children born to a woman might be too private 3 question to be asked any longer (it had been asked on every decennial census since 1941), and it is no longer included in the census. (ianada‘s population is even more diverse than that of the United States and so the census asks several questions about language-indeed, the split between English and lirench speak— ers nearly tore the country apart in the l990s. Detailed questions are also asked about race/ ethnicity, place of birth, citizenship, and ancestry. Statistics Canada estimates coverage error by comparing census results with population estimates (the demographic analysis approach), and by conducting a Re— verse Record Check study to measure the undercoverage errors and also an ()1,er coverage Study designed to investigate overcoverage errors. 'l‘he Reverse Record Check is the most important part of this, and involves taking a sample of records from other sources such as birth records and immigration records and then looking for those people in the census returns. An analysis of people not found who should have been there is a key component of estimating coverage error. The results of the Reverse Record Check and the Overcoverage Study are then combined to provide an estimate of net undercoverage, which was 2.99 percent in the 200| census (Ministry of Management Services 2003). The Census of Mexico Like Canada and the United States, Mexico has a long history of census taking. ‘I here are records of a census in the Valley of Mexico taken in the year I I In, and the subse- quent Aztec Empire also kept count of the population for tax purposes. Spain colt- ducted several censuses in Mexico during the colonial years, including a general census of New Spain (Nueva l-lspafia as they knew it) in I790. Mexico gained inde~ pendence from Spain in l82l, but it was not until 1895 that the lirst ot the modern series of national censuses was undertaken. A second enumeration was done in I900, but since then censuses have been taken every l0 years (with the exception of the one in I921, which was one year out of sequence). From 1895 through the [97th, the census activities were carried out by the (ieneral Directorate of Statistics (Direction General de Estadistica), and there were no permanent census employees. I lowevcr, the bureaucracy was reorganized for the I980 census, and in I98.) the Instituto Na- cional de listadistica, (ieografia e Informatica (INE(iI) became the permanent gov— ernment agency in charge of the census and other government data collection. Fewer questions were asked in the 2000 Mexican census than in the US. or Canada, as you can see in Table 4. l. The 2000 Census was the first in Me\ico to use a combination of a basic questionnaire administered to most households, plus a lengthier questionnaire administered to a sample of households. lairthermore, the sampling strategy was a bit different than in the United States and (ianada. Most of the questions were asked of most households, and the sample involved asking 2.2 million households (about l0 percent of the total) to respond to a set of more detailed questions about topics included in the basic questionnaire. lispecially note— worthy was a set of questions seeking information about family members who had beet :tgai ft) Ll and of it the cans digc dive lang .th) hoir an it using mau 2.3. whit Me\ Re; \th volu {aga cl‘Jl‘tl Birtl‘ cVen COIHt in m l Prics have Euro Scho clerg (ll: fl) nuni reuin .1 we Bills recot Th u r vital bure; 1 3 a 996 census ~nsuses. On ten born to :n asked on s. Canada’s census asks ench speak- isked about 'esults with Icting a Re— 0 an Over— tse Record 5 of records ien looking who should 'sults of the ) provide an 15 (Ministry iking. There d the subse- . Spain con— g a general rained inde— the modern me in 1900, n of the one t 19705, the s (Direccion 5. However, nstituto Na- nanent gov~ :tion. the U.S. or exico to use olds, plus a ermore, the da. Most of ‘lved asking set of more ecially note— :rs who had Chapter 4 Demographic Data been international migrants at any time during the previous five years. In 1995 and again in 2005, Mexico conducted a mid—decade census, which it calls a “Conteo,” to distinguish it from the decennial censuses. Less income detail is obtained in Mexico than in Canada or the United States, and socioeconomic categories are more often derived from outward manifestations of income, such as housing quality, and material possessions owned by members of the household, about which there are several detailed questions. Since most Mexi— cans are “mestizos” (Spanish for mixed race, in this case mainly European and in— digenous), no questions are asked about race or ethnicity. The only allusion to diversity within Mexico on the basic questionnaire is found in the question about language, in which people are asked if they speak an Indian language. If so, they are also asked if they speak Spanish. ()n the long form administered to a sample of households, a question is also asked specifically about whether or not they belong to an indigenous’group. In Mexico, the evaluation of coverage error in the census has generally been made using the method of demographic analysis. On this basis, Corona Vdsquez ( 1991) esti- mated that underenumeration in the 1990 Mexican census was somewhere between 2.3 and 7.3 percent. No analysis has yet been published of the 2000 census’s accuracy which, in all events, would be difficult to establish because of the large number of Mexican nationals living outside of the country, especially in the United States. Registration of Vital Events When you were born, a birth certificate was filled out for you, probably by a clerk or volunteer staff person in the hospital where you were born. When you die, someone (again, typically a hospital clerk) will fill out a death certificate on your behalf. Stan— dard birth and death certificates used in the United States are shown in Figure 4.4. Births and deaths, as well as marriages, divorces, and abortions, are known as vital events, and when they are recorded by the government and compiled for use they be- come vital statistics. These statistics are the major source of data on births and deaths in most countries, and they are most useful when combined with census data. Registration of vital events in Europe actually began as a chore of the church. Priests often recorded baptisms, marriages, and deaths, and historical demographers have used the surviving records to reconstruct the demographic history of parts of liurope (Landers 1993; Wall, Robin, and Laslett 1983; Wrigley I974; Wrigley and Schofield [98 | ). Among the more demographically important tasks that befell the clergy was that of recording burials that occurred in England during the many years of the plague. In the early sixteenth century, the city of London ordered that the number of people dying be recorded in each parish, along with the number of chris— renings. Beginning in 1592, these records (or “bills”) were printed and circulated on .1 weekly basis during particularly rough years, and so they were called the London ’rills of Mortality (Laxton I987; Lorimer I959). Between 1603 and 1849, these records were published weekly (on Thursdays, with an annual summary on the l'hursday before Christmas) in what amounts to one of the most important sets of vital statistics prior to the nineteenth—century establishment of official government bureaucracies to collect and analyze such data. 131 V,,_.‘.-g..w,,..i«.,aw.w was” a. aw“, , ,,,.,_, swag“; i E .r i w ‘Strawv :,:CC~./ ,5: finimUUiZw ,J:_.:L TLfifiCva on: p.24 afar—u .1,»ZJZC;QU £517 fizw SHth :5: 7.: FEW—mu; 2 : :quxsz§_ , ‘ECCEP/ULL 72¢ 71‘:va ufifilg .2; VLQHCD J .25. 32% ES: 3: : av fr; it ,t. acmfgm 5:3: * 32m :35 €12,217. 32% $3.25 of E 333 mEmUECwU 53m. fizz LEE FEE: 3:32 a 3 Bums , , 9,? . _ w m , 4 N uw mr _ . w W L a ‘ mm mm a , w m w» s y .Zl514 rot-(ll: W z ‘ w. I?!.EEUFEFEHH—iE—AE 5.5! mm1h(u KWIFOI 55m w>3 no 551.53 014925 m a 132 Chapter 4 U.S. STANDARD CERTIFICATE OF DEATH I 0cm. FILI‘ Nov HIAIE FILE «0 "1 S. ; (D I um: I 20 , 35 (C O >§ I2“ 130 «I; I5 fig 50 E,“ C 62 IE 03 If; Nu. 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IIII All II'II IIII,II.I III..I,»I.IIIII L‘A Mr IIIIIII I“ II I, w II'IAI III 1w :IIIIII,IIIIIIIIIII.II «w. II x.III m IIIIIIIImIII . mII I.IIIIII« IIIIII. «IIIIIIIIIIIIWJVI, IIII an: «m III III .4 II in" III ,II IIIIL I UPAIIIJIIIIV‘ IIIumIII I, II III IIII...,IIII._,IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII, II')IIUI «I II IIIIIIII III NNJIII IIII‘INI - MYII‘UIINV Demographic Data I33 134 Part One A Demographic Perspective Initially, the information ahout deaths indicated oiin the cause (since one goal was to keep track of the deadly plague), hut starting in the eighteenth century the age of those dying was also noted. Yet despite the interest in these data created hy the analyses of Graunt, Petty, Halley, and others mentioned in (lhapter 3, people re~ mained skeptical ahout the quality of the data and unsure ol what could he done with them (Starr I987). So it was not until the middle of the nineteenth century that civil registration of hirths and deaths hecaine compulsory and an otlice of vital stir tistics was officially established hy the linglish government, mirroring events in much of Europe and North America (lander I95"). ln fact, it was not until l‘)()() that hirth and death certificates were standardized in the United States. Today we find the most complete vital registration systems in the most highly developed countries and the least complete (often nonexistent) systems in the least developed countries. Such systems seem to he tied to literacy (there must he someone in each area to record events), adequate ctnnnumication, and the cost of the hureau— cracy required for such record keeping, all ot which is associated with economic den velopment. Among countries where systems of vital registration do e\'ist, there is wide variation in the completeness with which events are recorded. liven in the United States, the registration of hirths is not yet ltlt) percent complete. Although most nations have separate systems of hirth and death registration, dozens of countries, mostly in liurope, maintain population registers, which are lists of all people in the country (see l’igure 4.3). Alongside each name are recorded the vital events for that individual, typically hirth, death, marriage, divorce, and change of residence. Such registers are kept primarily for administrative (that is, so- cial control) purposes, such as legal identification of people, election rolls, and calls for military service, hut they are also extremely valuahle for demographic pur~ poses, since they provide a demographic lite history for each individual. Registers are expensive to maintain, htit many countries that could afford them, such as the United States, tend to avoid them hecause of the perceived threat to personal tree dom that can he inherent in a system that compiles and centrali/es personally iden tilying information. (:oiiiliiiiiiig‘ the (tensors kllltl Vital Statistics Although recording vital events provides information ahout the numher of hirths and deaths (along with other events) according to such characteristics as age and sex, we also need to know how many people are at risk ol these events. ‘l'hus, vital statistics data are typically teamed tip with census data, which do include that inton mation. l’or example, yoti may know from the vital statistics that there were 4,l4(),4l9 hirths in the llnited States in 3005, htit that numhet tells you nothing ahout whether the hirth rate was high or low. In order to draw any conclusion, you must relate those hirths to the 196,507,0ol people residing in the US. as ot mid- 2005, and only then do you discover a relatively low hirth rate of l4.” hitths per 1,000 population, down from lo.7 in WW), hut higher than the HS in 100.). Since no census has heen taken since l()()(l, you may Wonder how an estimate ol the population can he produced for an interccnsal year such as 3005. ‘l‘he answer is that once again censtis data are comhined with vital statistics data (and migration estin chap plus 20W cura wha ple a tima largt ,r\( l Koo sign whc impi nugi lot i taht l)ep ixati titlit :Wtit Stat yide PC“) niiti (ien (lR‘ Sect Pl'ti' tl'at dat; con as c (Mt Sn 'l'lit stat usu ess. Illtlt a goal ry the ted by yle re- done y that al sta~ nits in l900 highly 3 least neone areau— llC de— lete is in the union, :h are :orded e, and is, so— d calls : pur— gisters as the .1 free— I iden— births ;e and ;, Vital infor— » were 0thng n, you f micl— hs per mm of LWCI‘ is ;rati0n (lhaptet 4 Demographic Data estimates} using: the demographic balancing equation {which I discussed earlier ill the chapterl—Ihe population in 2005 is equal to the population as of the 2mm census plus the hirths minus the deaths plus the iii—migrants minus the out-migrants hetween .3000 and 2005. Naturally. deficiencies in any of these data sources will lead to inac- curacies in the estimate of the mini her of people alive at any time, and this is exactly what happened in the United States in 2.000. The (Iensus counted ESL-421.906 peo- ple as of April l, 2001], hut the demographic balancing equation had produced an es- timate for that day of only 274,510,000. The difference was probably accounted for largely by undocumented immigration between [990 and 2000. r\(llllllli5lrilli\/(‘ Dom Knowing that censuses and the collection of vital statistics were not originally de— signed to provide data lot demographic analysis has alerted demographers every- where to keep their collective eyes open for any data source that might yield important information. For exainpltu an important source of information about im- migration to the United States is the compilation of administrative records filled out for each person cnteriin:1 the country from abroad. These forms are collected and tabulated by [he U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service tUSLJlSl within the lLS. Department of Homeland Security, which used to be the immigration and Natural- :zation Service llNS} within the U_S. Department of Justice. (If course. we need other means to estimate the number of people who enter without documents and avoid detection by the government. and I discuss that more in Chapter 7. Data are not routinely gathered on people who permanently leave the United States. hut the administrative records of the U.S. Social Security Administration pro— vide some clues about the number and destination of such indiViduals because many people who leave the country have their Social Security checks follow them. An ad— n'iinistrative source or information on migration within the United States used by the Census Bureau is a set of data provided to them Iiy the Internal Revenue Service ilRS}. Although no personal information is ever divulged, the IRS can match Social Security numbers of taxpayers each year and see it their address has changed. thus providing a clue about geographic mobility. At the local level. a variety of adminis- trative data can he tapped to determine demographic patterns. School enrollment data provide clues to patterns of population growth and migration. Utility data on connections and disconnections can also be used to discern local population trends. as can the number of people signing up for governmerit-sponsored health programs LMedicaid and Medicare) and income assistance [various torms of welfare}. Sample Surveys-s [here are two maior difficulties with using data collected in the census. by the vital stdtlSEiL‘S registration system. or derived From administrative records: ll} They are usually collected for purposes other than dcmogra phic analysis and thus do not nec- essarily reflect the theoretical concerns of demography. and [2} They are collected by many different people usng many different methods and may be prone to numerous 136 Part One A Demographic Perspective kinds of error. For these two reasons, in addition to the cost of big data~collection schemes, sample surveys are frequently used to gather demographic data. Sample surveys may provide the social, psychological, economic, and even physical data I referred to earlier as being necessary to an understanding of why things are as they are. Their principal limitation is that they provide less extensive geographic cover- age than a census or system of vital registration. By using a carefully selected sample of even a few thousand people, demogrm phers have been able to ask questions about births, deaths, migration, and other subjects that reveal aspects of the “why” of demographic events rather than inst the “what.” In some poor or remote areas of the world, sample surveys can also provide good estimates of the levels of fertility, mortality, and migration in the absence of census or vital registration data. Demographic Surveys in the United States I have already mentioned the American Community Survey (ACS), which is now be— coming an important part of the census itself. For the past several decades, one of the most important sample surveys has been the (Iurrent Population Survey ((LPS) conducted monthly by the US. (Iensus Bureau in collaboration with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since I943, thousands of households (currently more than 50,000) have been queried each month about a variety of things, although a major thrust of the survey is to gather information on the labor force. liach March, detailed demo graphic questions are also asked about fertility and migration and such characteris tics as education, income, marital status, and living arrangements. These data have been an important source of demographic information about the American popula- tion, filling in the gap between censuses, and providing the (Iensus I’ntrean With the experience necessary to launch the more ambitious /\(IS. Since I983, the (Iensus Bureau has also been conducting the Survey on Income and Program Participation (SIPP), which is a companion to the (Inrrent Population Survey. Using a rotating panel of more than 40,000 households which are queried several times over a two to four year period, the SlPP gathers detailed data on sources of income and wealth, disability, and the extent to which household meni- hers participate in govermnent assistance programs. The (Iensus Bureau also regu- larly conducts the American Housing Survey for the US. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and this survey generates important data on mobility and migration patterns in the United States. The National (Ienter for Health Statistics (NCHS) within the US. (Ienters for Disease (Iontrol and Prevention generates data about fertility and reproductive health in the National Survey of llamin (irowth (NSFG), which it conducts every five years or so, and also obtains data on health and disability from the regular National Health Interview Survey (Nl llS). Canadian Surveys (Ianada has a monthly Labor Force Survey (LFS), initiated in 1947 to track em— ployment trends after the end of World War II. Similar to the (PS in the US, it is a rotat to pr core prov tistic abon life i topic Mexi Mcxi ll‘S. ()cui' by ll‘ (PS, and t glslx't‘t set ()l l 2. ye Demt One 1 Snrve thlit bearii viewc to on were Snrve ica, /\ ment lr lence Healt Nlfltil‘t child graph about been ( Latin chaptt vital s tute st Chapter 4 Demographic Data rotating panel of more than 50,000 households, and although its major purpose is to produce data on the labor force (hence the name), it gathers data on most of the core sociodemographic characteristics of people in each sampled household, so it provides a continuous measure of population trends in Canada. Since I985, Sta— tistics (Tanada has also conducted an annual (ieneral Social Survey, a sample of about 25,000 respondents designed to elicit detailed data about various aspects of life in (Ianada, such as health and social support, families, time use, atid related topics. Mexican Surveys Mexico conducts a regular national survey that is comparable to the (II’S and the LFS. The National Survey of Occupation and Iimployment (lincuesta Nacional de Ocupacion y limpleo |I{N()Ii|) is a large monthly sample of households undertaken by INHII that is designed to be representative of the entire country. [\s with the CPS, the goal is to provide a way of regularly measuring and monitoring the social and economic characteristics of the population. Many of the population questions asked in the census (see 'I‘able 4. I ) are also asked in the IiNOIi, along with a detailed set of questions about the labor force activity of everyone in the household who is I2 years of age or older. Demographic and Health Surveys One of the largest social scientific proiects‘ ever undertaken was the World Fertility Survey, conducted under the auspices of the International Statistical Institute in the Netherlands. Between I972 and I932, a total of nearly 350,000 women of child“ bearing age from 4.1 developing nations and 10 developed countries were inter< viewed (lightbotn'ne, Singh, and (ireen I‘ltS’l). These data contributed substantially to our knowledge of how and why pcople iti different parts of the world were (or were not) controlling their fertility at that time. (ioncurrent with the World Iiertility Survey was a series of (Zontraceptive Prevalence Surveys, conducted in Iatin Amer- ica, Asia, and Africa with funding from the US. Agency for International Develop- ment (IlS/\II‘)). In I984, the Work of the World Iiertility Survey and the Contraceptive l’reva— lence Surveys was combined into one large project called the Demographic and Health Surveys (I)HS), which are now carried out by a private company, ()IUI Macro, with funding from USAII). 'I‘he focus is on fertility, reproductive health, and child health and nutrition, but the data provide national estimates ol basic demo— graphic processes, structure, and characteristics since a few questions are asked about all members of each household in the sample. More than I70 surveys have been conducted in more than 70 developing countries in Africa, western .\sia, .ntd Latin America. 'I’Itis is a rich source of information, as you will see in subsequent chapters, and for several poorer nations, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, where vital statistics may not be routinely available, the DI IS serves as an unofficial substi« tute set of information. I37 I x 4. ii saw-hm ’u:w:~5;;\/ am «snow» New. so. as.» 138 Part One A Demographic Perspective A complementary set of surveys has been conducted in poorer countries that, for a variety of reasons, have not had 3 Demographic and Health Survey. Known as the Multiple Indicators Cluster Surveys (MICS), they were developed by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and are funded by a variety of international agen— cies. These surveys collect data that are very similar to those in the DHS. Demographic Surveillance Systems In Africa, many people are born, live, and die without a single written record of their existence because of the poor coverage of censuses and vital registration sys— tems (de Savigny 2003; Korenromp, Williams, (iouwa, Dye, and Snow 2003). To provide a way of tracking the lives of people in specific “sentinel” areas of sub— Saharan Africa (and to a lesser extent south Asia), an INDEPTH network has been created that works with individual countries to select one or two defined geo— graphic regions that are representative of a larger population. A census is con— ducted in that region and then subsequent demographic changes are continuously measured by keeping track of all births, deaths, migration, and related characteris— tics of the population. As of 2007, this method permitted the estimation of fertility and death rates and their changes over time for 37 sites in 19 different countries of Africa and Asia. European Surveys Declining fertility in Europe has generated a renewed interest in the continent’s demography and there are now several surveys in Europe that capture useful demo— graphic information. In particular, the Population Activities Unit of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe funded the Family and Fertility Surveys (FPS) in most European nations during the l990s. Since 2000, they have funded a new round of surveys called “Generations and (Sender: Research into their Behaw iour and Quality of Life,” which has a slightly different focus, but incorporates many of the questions asked in the EES. Historical Sources Our understanding of population processes is shaped not only by our perception of current trends but also by our understanding of historical events. l‘listorical de— mography requires that we almost literally dig up information about the patterns of mortality, fertility, and migration in past generations—to reconstruct "the world we have lost,“ as Peter Laslett (1971) once called it. You may prefer to whistle past the graveyard, but researchers at the Cambridge (iroup for the History of Popula— tion and Social Structure in the Department of Geography at Cambridge University (UK) have spent the past several decades developing ways to recreate history by reading dates on tombstones and organizing information contained in parish church registers and other local documents (Reher and Schofield 1993; Wrigley and Schofield historica IIISU tics, but rates spc records i records f profile o munity r family gr recent ye 'lilic tions ab< graphic i is not a r [974). ll several c« to the pr needs of may hav been tho (ioih (ll’llMS) Ruggles selecting surveys i data sets been org census Ll subsequr Princetoi and rcpr liy i demogr: ingful f." America determii British r D(‘l I HI Demogr some ol showed. Haggett Snow u '1'! .1- .‘0 r_‘. it. et- v: 5!?! ~ 9‘? Chapter 4 Demographic Data Schofield I981), extending methods developed especially by the great French historical demographer Louis Henry (Rosenta12003). Historical sources of demographic information include censuses and vital statis— tics, but the general lack of good historical vital statistics is what typically necessi~ rates special detective work to locate birth records in church registers and death records in graveyards. liven in the absence of a census, a complete set of good local records for a small village may allow a researcher to reconstruct the demographic profile of families by matching entries of births, marriages, and deaths in the com— munity over a period of several years. Yet another source of such information is family genealogies, the compilation of which has become increasingly common in recent years. The results of these labors can be of considerable importance in testing our no- tions about how the world used to work. For example, through historical demo— graphic research we now know that the conjugal family (parents and their children) is not a product of industrialization and urbanization, as was once thought (Wrigley I974). In fact, such small family units were quite common throughout Europe for several centuries before the Industrial Revolution and may actually have contributed to the process of industrialization by allowing the family more flexibility to meet the needs of the changing economy. In the United States, conversely, extended families may have been more common prior to the nineteenth century than has generally been thought (Ruggles I994). Conclusions such as this come from the Integrated Public Use Microdara Series iIPUMS) of the Minnesota Population Center at the University of Minnesota. Steven Ruggles and his associates have built an innovative (and accessible) database by selecting samples of household data from a long series of censuses ( I 850 to 2000) and surveys in the United States, and they are in the process of collecting similar census data sets from elsewhere in the world. The African Census Analysis Project has also been organized at the University of Pennsylvania to archive and analyze micro-level census data (information specific to individual households) from African nations. In subsequent chapters, we will have numerous occasions to draw on the results of the Princeton European Fertility Project, which gathered and analyzed data on marriage .md reproduction throughout nineteenth— and earlyetwentieth-century Europe. By quantifying (and thereby clarifying) our knowledge of past patterns of demographic events, we are also better able to interpret historical events in a mean~ mgful fashion. Wells (I985) has reminded us that the history of the struggle of .\merican colonists to survive, marry, and bear children may tell us more about the determination to forge a union of states than a detailed recounting of the actions of l’iritish officials. Demographic Uses of Geographic Information Systems Demograpbers have been using maps as a tool for analysis for a long time, and '-\()m€ of the earliest analyses of disease and death relied heavily on maps that \howed, for example, where people were dying from particular causes (Cliff and llaggett I996). In the middle of the nineteenth century, London physician ,[ohn \now used maps to trace a local cholera epidemic. He was able to show that 139 _ ‘3; 140 Part One A Demographic Perspective cholera occurred much more frequently among customers of a water company that drew its water from the lower Thames River (downstream), where it had become contaminated with London sewage, whereas another company was associated with far fewer cases of cholera because it obtained water from the upper Thames—«prior to passing through London, where sewage was dumped in the river (Snow 1936). Today a far more sophisticated version of this same idea is available to demogra— phers through geographic information systems (GIS), which form the major part of the emerging field of geographic information science (GlSc). The advent of powerful desktop computers has created a “GIS revolution” (Longley and Batty 1996) that encourages demographers (and others, of course) to bring maps together with data in innovative ways (Ricketts, Savitz, Gesler, and Osborne 1997; Rindfuss and Stern 1998; Weeks 2004). A GIS is a computer—based system that allows us to combine maps with data that refer to particular places on those maps and then to analyze those data using spatial statistics (part of GlSc) and display the results as thematic maps or some other graphic format. The computer allows us to transform a map into a set of areas (such as a country, state, or census tract), lines (such as streets, highways, or rivers), and points (such as a house, school, or a health clinic). Our demographic data must then be gee—referenced (associated with some geographic identification such as pre- cise latitude-longitude coordinates, a street address, ZIP code, census tract, county, state, or country) so the computer will link them to the correct area, line, or point. Table 4.3 The U.S. Census Provides Geographically Referenced Data for a Wide Range of Geographic Areas W Basic Geographic Hierarchy of Census Data: ______________________..._—.——————————————————————— United States Region (4) Division (9) State (50, plus the outlying areas of American Samoa, Guam, northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands) County (the basic administrative and legal subdivision of states) County Subdivision (also known as minor civil divisions, including towns and townships) Place (incorporated cities and unincorporated census-designated places) Census 'l‘ract/Block Numbering Area (tracts are small, relatively permanent subdivisions of a county, delineated for all metropolitan areas and other densely settled areas; block numbering areas are similar to census tracts except that they are set up for nonmetropolitan areas that have not been tracted) Block Group (a cluster of blocks within census tracts, usually containing about 400 housing units) Census Block (the smallest geographic unit, usually bounded on all sides by readily identifiable features such as streets, railroad tracks, or bodies of water) ____________.____.__——...——————————_—————- Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000. .mwmw , , \ m_¢*-n- 1- —.—......\... H, - vauzn 1W! wwwrwm «‘ «w -. Chapter 4 Demographic Data Geographic information software Demographic concepts and measurements Remotely sensed data Spatial statistics Figure 4.5 The Elements of (icodcmographics Geodemographics Geo~referenced demographic data Demographic data are virtually always referenced to a geographic area and in the United States the Geography Division of the US). Census Bureau works closely with the Population Division to make sure that data are identified for appropriate levels of “census geography,” as shown in Table 4.3. The “revolutionary” aspect of (115 is that gen—referencing data to places on the map means we can combine different types of data (such as census and survey data) for the same place, and We can do it for more than one time (such as data for 1990 and 2000). When geographic information systems incorporate demographic data, the resulting combination is called geodemographics (demographic data analyzed for specific geographic regions), as illustrated in Figure 4.5. This may incorporate other geospatial techniques, including remotely sensed satellite imagery (that can help us understand aspects of population size and distribution) and spatial statistical methods. (,‘eodemographics improve our ability to visualize and analyze the kinds of demographic changes taking place over time and space. Since 1997, for example, most of the Demographic and Health Surveys in less—developed countries have used global positioning system (( RPS) devices (another geospatial technique) to record the location of (geo—reference) each household in the sample in order to allow for more sophisticated geodemographic analysis of the survey data. GIS and the U.S. Census Bureau It is a gross understatement that the computer——the revolutionary element that has created (£15 (maps and demographic data have been around for a long time)-——has vastly expanded our capacity to process and analyze data. It is no coincidence that census data are so readily amenable to being “crunched” by the computer; the his— tories of the computer and the US. Census Bureau go back a long way together. Prior to the l89l) census, the U.S. government held a contest to see who could come up with the best machine for counting the data from that census. The winner was Herman Hollcrith, who had worked on the [880 census right after graduating from Columbia University. His method of feeding a punched card through a tabu- lating machine proved to be very successful, and in [886 he organized the Tabulat- ing Machine (Iompany, which in l9l l was merged with two other companies and became the international Business Machines (lBM) Corporation (Kaplan and Van 141 142 Part One A Demographic Perspective are drav tions, at Valey 1980). Then, after World War II, the Census Bureau sponsored the develop- ment of the first computer designed for mass data processing—the UNIV/MEI— which was used to help with the 1950 census and led the world into the computer age. Photo—optical scanning, which we now heavily rer on for entering data from printed documents into the computer, was also a by—product of the (Iensus Bureau‘s need for a device to tabulate data from census forms. F()SII)(I (film optical sensing Plcrc "n device for input to computers) was first used for the I960 census (US. (Iensus North A Bureau I999). In [Imr‘ Another useful innovation was the creation for the I980 U5. (iensus of the “1 “ICAWI‘ DIME (Dual Independent Map Encoding) files. This was the first step toward coni- 'll‘lrrmb' ever, the and earl iug knm puter mapping, in which each piece of data could be coded in a way that could be C"”“”" matched electronically to a place on a map. In the IVBUs, several private firms “all” latched onto this technology, improved it, and made it available to other companies 1"“ for their own business uses. demogr By the early 1990s, the pieces of the puzzle had come together. 'I‘he data from the ‘ll'llr‘l‘l‘ I990 U.S. (Iensus were made available for the first time on (II)~I{()M and at prices "ll‘mm affordable to a wide range of users. Furthermore, the (Iensus Bureau reconfigured its gm‘Vlh geographic coding of data, creating what it calls the 'I'I( LI‘IR ('Ii)pi>l<>gic;illy Integrated C'lh‘m“ Geographic Encoding and Referencing) system, a “digital (ct)mputer~readable) geo— SWWHM graphic database that automates the mapping and related geographic activities re— *“lWlm‘ n l quired to support the (Iensus Bureau‘s census and survey programs“ (U5. (Iensus Bureau I993:A1 I). At the same time, and certainly in response to increased demand, “mm ‘ personal computers came along that were powerful enough and had enough memory 3‘ “W” to be able to store and manipulate huge census files, including both the geographic Pm‘w" database and the actual population and housing data. Not far behind was the softr- '5‘ 1"” V ware to run those computers, and several firms now make software for desktop com< am “I'll puters that allow interactive spatial analysis of census and other kinds of data and then the production of high-quality color maps of the analysis results. Two of these firms———I§nvironmental Systems Research Institute ([{SRI—Iittp://www.esri.com) and [HUVL’ tli Geographic Data Technology ((iI')T———http://www.ge()graphic.com)———Were awarded Main contracts in I997 to help the U5. (Iensus Bureau update its computerm-d Master Address File (the information used to continuously update the TI( iIiR files) in order I. In ( to improve accuracy in (lensus 2000. In a very real sense, the census and the ‘I'I(iI{R pet files more specifically helped to spawn the now—booming (iIS industry. mo Knowledge and understanding are based on information, and our information ,- 1\ I base grows by being able to tap more deeply into rich data sources such as censuses _ m“ and surveys. (iIS is an effective tool for doing this, and you will see numerous exanr ‘ ples of (iIS at work in the remaining chapters. You can also see it at Work on the In» "' N” ternet. Virtually all of the data from (lensus 2000 and the American (fommunity W” Survey are being made available on the US. (Iensus Bureau‘s website at http:// 4. Iirr fact finder.census.gov, which allows you to create thematic maps “on the fly. " mo sar . S. It | Summary and (Ionclusmn dm The working bases of any science are facts and theory. In this chapter, I have discussed (7‘ Inf rec the major sources of demographic information, the wells from which population data Chapter 4 Demographic Data are drawn. Censuses are the most widely known and used sources of data on popula- lions~ and humans have been counting themselves in this way for a long time. How- ever. the modern series of more scientific censuses dates only from the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The high cost of censuses, combined with the increas- ing knowledge We have ahout the value of surveys, has meant that even so—called com- plete enumerations often include some kind of sampling. That is certainly true in North America. as the United States. Llanada. and Mexico all use sampling techniques in their censuses. Even vital statistics can he estimated using sample surveys, especially in developing countries. although the usual pattern is for hirths and deaths {and often marriages, divorces. and abortions} to he registered with the civil authorities. Some countries take this .1 step further and maintain a complete register of life events for everybody. Knowledge can also he gleaned from administrative data gathered for non» demographic purposes. These are particularly important in helping us measure migration. It is not inst the present that we attempt to measure: historical sources of information can add much to our understanding of current trends in population growth and change. Our ahility to know how the world works is increasingly enhanced hy incorporating our demographic data into a geographic information system. permitting us to ask questions that were not really answerable hefore the advent of the computer. In this and the preceding three chapters. 1 have laid out for you the hasie e|e~ ments of a demographic perspective. With this in hand {and hopefully in your head .is welli, we are now ready to prohe more deeply into the analysis of population processes, to come to an appreciation oi how important the decline in the death rate I‘s‘ yet why it is still so much higher in some places than in others. why hirth rates are still high in some places while heing very low in others. and why some people move and others do not. Main I’oiols I. In order to study population processes and change. you need to know how many people are alive. how many are being horn. how many are dying, how many are moving in and out, and why these things are happening- _. r‘t hasic source of demographic information Is the population census. in which information is ohtained about all people in a given area at .1 specific time. a. Not all countries regularly conduct censuses, hut most of the population of the world has been enumerated since Jill"). 4. Errors in the census typically come ahout as a result of nonsampling errors [the most important source of error, including coverage error and content error] or sampling errors. J: . It has heen said that censuses are important hecause if you aren‘t counted. you don’t count. n. Information about hirths and deaths usually comes from viral registration records—data recorded and compiled by government agencies. The most complete 144 Part One 10. A Demographic Perspective vital registration systems are found in the most highly developed nations, while they are often nonexistent in less—developed areas. Most of the estimates of the magnitude of population growth and change are derived by combining census data with vital registration data (as well as admin- istrative data), using the demographic balancing equation. Sample surveys are sources of information for places in which census or vital registration data do not exist or where reliable information can be obtained less expensively by sampling than by conducting a census. Parish records and old census data are important sources of historical informa- tion about population changes in the past. Geographic information systems combine maps and demographic data into a computer system for innovative types of geodemographic analysis. Questions for Review: In the United States, data are already collected from nearly everyone for Social Security cards and driver’s licenses. Why then does the country not have a popu— lation register that would eliminate the need for the census? Survey data are never available at the same geographic detail as are census data. What are the disadvantages associated with demographic data that are not pro- vided at a fine geographic scale? Virtually all of the demographic surveys and surveillance systems administered in developing countries are paid for by governments in richer countries. What is the advantage to richer countries of helping less-rich countries to collect demo- graphic data? What is the value to us in the twenty—first century of having an accurate demo- graphic picture of earlier centuries? Do you agree with the statement that “demographic data are inherently spa- tial”? Why or why not? Suggested Readings 1. David A. Swanson and Jacob S. Siegel, 2003, Methods and Materials of Demography, Second Edition (San Diego: Academic Press). The first edition of this book. by Henry Shryock and jacob Siegel, was published in l976 and immediately became a classic in the field of population studies. It has now been re- vised and updated to reflect the important changes occurring over the past 25 years in the sources of data and techniques for analyzing them. National Research Council, 2007, Tools and Methods for Estimaling Populations at Risk From Natural Disasters and Complex Humanitarian Crises (Washington, DC: National Academies Press). This report summarizes the state of the art in using geodemographic techniques to estimate the number and characteristics of various kinds of disasters, who may thus be in need of humanitarian relief. people living in areas at risk of ;, while nge are admin- ;)r vital led less forma- into a - Social 1 popu- IS data. ()t pro- iistered What is demo« demo- ly spa- grapby, in 1976 ween re— 's in the at Risk lational graphic risk of 1-4—4” 3P '-"“'III_¢" 4!: -' 3 it. 3. Chapter 4 Demographic Data Dominique Arel, 2002, “Demography and Politics in the First Post-Soviet Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities,” Population (English Edition) 57(6):801-828. The breaking up of the Soviet Union meant the restructuring of the census in the new Russian Federation, and this process has offered important insights into the social and political issues that lie behind censuses everywhere in the world. Monica Boyd, Gustave Goldmann, and Pamela White, 2000, “Race in the Canadian Census,” in Leo Driedger and Shiva S. Halli, eds., Race and Racism: Canada's Challenge (Montreal: McGill/Queen‘s University Press). Canada has been a country marked by demographic diversity from its earliest national roots, and these authors trace the way in which the census has reflected the country’s angst over how best to measure the ethnic and cultural diversity of the population. Christine E. Bose, 2001, Women in 1900: Gateway to the Political Economy of the 20th Century (Philadelphia: Temple University Press). This is a fascinating example of the social scientist as detective using historical census data to allow women to “speak” to us from the past. Websites of Interest Remember that websites are not as permanent as books and journals, so I cannot guarantee that each of the following websites still exists at the moment you are reading this. It is usually possible, however, to retrieve the contents of old websites at http:// www.archive.org. l. http://www.census.gov The home page of the U.S. Census Bureau. From here you can locate an amazing variety of information, including the latest releases of data from Census 2000, the American Com- munity Survey, and all of the surveys conducted by the Census Bureau. This is one of the most accessed websites in the world. . http://www.statcan.ca The home page of Statistics Canada, which conducts the censuses in Canada. From here you can obtain data from the 2001 and 2006 Censuses and track other demographically related information about Canada, including vital statistics and survey data. . http://www.inegi.gob.mx The home page of INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia, y Informatica), which is the government agency in Mexico that conducts the censuses and related demo— graphic surveys, as well as compiling the vital statistics for Mexico. You can obtain the latest information from the 2000 Mexican census and 2005 Conteo from this site. http://www.cdc.gov/nchswwwlnchshome.htm In many countries (including Canada and Mexico), a central statistical agency conducts censuses and also collects vital statistics. Not so in the United States, where these functions were divided up in the 19405. The vital statistics data are collected from each state, tabu— lated, analyzed, and disseminated by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), which is part of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). . http://mumford.albany.edu/2000plus/ The Center for Social and Demographic Analysis and the Lewis Mumford Center at the University at Albany (SUNY) provides the user with the ability to create on-line maps of sociodemographic variables for areas down to the county-level in the United States, updat- ing information from Census 2000. 145 ...
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