Lecture_18 - Energy: Facts and Perspectives Petroleum...

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Energy: Facts and Perspectives Petroleum Natural Gas Coal Hydrogen
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Are we at the brink of a world oil crisis? Readings: Lomborg, Holdren, Maass, Tierney “Doomsayers.” Finite supply of natural resources and waste capacity on the planet Earth. (Ecological footprint) “Cornucopians.” Human ingenuity will respond to market forces with creativity and innovation. Market analysts. Two forces at work: -- steady depletion of a nonrenewable resource -- demand increasing by developing countries U.S.: 780 vehicles/1000 people China: 8 vehicles/1000 people
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Petroleum Some Basic Facts The largest commodity in international trade (by $ value) Oil consumption (crude oil; 1 barrel = 42 gallons) World consumption: 84 million barrels/day U.S. consumption: 20+ million barrels/day U.S. imports: -- almost 60% of use Transportation sector: -- 67% of use Saudi Arabia production: 10.5 million barrels/day Oil = 37% of global energy consumption
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Petroleum Products Yielded from One Barrel of Crude Oil in California Product Percent of Total Finished Motor Gasoline 51.4% Distillate Fuel Oil 15.3% Jet Fuel 12.6% Still Gas 5.4% Marketable Coke 5.0% Residual Fuel Oil 3.3% Liquefied Refinery Gas 2.8% Asphalt and Road Oil 1.9%
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Petroleum (cont.) Graphs: -- U.S. Energy Consumption, 1750-2000 -- World Energy Production, 1890-1999 -- Oil Price and Production, 1871-2020 -- Imported crude oil to U.S., 1994-2008 Price of crude oil has more than quadrupled in the last 5 years (low $20s to over $100 per barrel) Now around $105-110
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Price of Imported Crude Oil, 1994-2008 (Nominal dollars per barrel)
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Saudi Arabia “the ‘central bank’ of the world oil market” Peter Maass, “The Breaking Point” Idea: industrialized countries have relied on Saudi Arabia to control price on the world oil market. Saudi Arabia has excess capacity in crude oil production, and it adjusts its output to regulate the market. Context: If the world is at the brink of an “oil
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Lecture_18 - Energy: Facts and Perspectives Petroleum...

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