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Unformatted text preview: Introduction Course logistics Review of Probability Econ 103, UCLA, Fall 2010 Introduction to Econometrics Lecture 1 Sarolta Lacz September 23, 2010 Introduction Course logistics Review of Probability Introduction/1 Econometrics... uses economic theory and statistical techniques to analyze economic data. aims to answer quantitative questions. Main tool: regression analysis We want to determine the effect of one variable ( X ) on another variable ( Y ). Econ 41: statistical analysis of one variable Econ 103: analysis of the relationship between two (or more) variables Introduction Course logistics Review of Probability Introduction/2 Examples of questions of interest: How does demand change with the price of the good? What is the effect of a new marketing campaign on sales? How does class size affect education outcomes (e.g. test scores)? How much an additional year of schooling increases wages? What is the relationship between credit scores and loan default rates? How do taxes on cigarettes influence smoking? Do more policemen reduce crime? Does increasing the incarceration rate reduce crime? If free bed nets are distributed, will the prevalence of malaria decrease? How to predict inflation? Or the dollar/euro exchange rate? Introduction Course logistics Review of Probability Introduction/3 In this course, you will learn... theory. Not to misinterpret results in articles, or the results your computer gives. To understand the caveats of regression analysis. It is essential to do good empirical work. how to do empirical analysis yourself. You will work with real datasets. You will use statistical software, namely STATA. Introduction Course logistics Review of Probability Course logistics/1 Lectures: Tuesday and Thursday 9.30  10.45, Moore Hall 100 Office hours: Wednesday 9.00  11.00, Bunche Hall 8369 This is an impacted course! If you want to drop it, you have to do so by October 8 . Textbook: James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson: Introduction to Econometrics (second edition), Addison Wesley Lecture notes will be posted on the Classweb site before class. I will not bring copies! Introduction Course logistics Review of Probability Course logistics/2 STATA is available on computers in CLICC lab (Powell Library) and in the Social Sciences Computing Lab (Public Affairs Building). You can also purchase your own version (see Syllabus for details)....
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 Spring '07
 SandraBlack

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