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section 1 - CEE 304 Section #1 Bayes Theorem Example: A...

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CEE 304 – Section #1 Bayes’ Theorem Example: A consulting firm rents cars from three agencies, 20% from agency D, 20% from agency E, and 60% from agency F. If 10% of the cars from D, 12% of the cars from E, and 4% of the cars from F have bad tires, what is the probability that the firm will get a car with bad tires? Solution : In order to answer the question, we first need to understand what information is given in the problem statement. From the first sentence, we have: P(Renting from agency D) = P(D) = 0.20 P(Renting from agency E) = P(E) = 0.20 P(Renting from agency F) = P(F) = 0.60 From the second sentence, we have: P(Get car with bad tires given rented from agency D) = P(BT | D) = 0.10 P(Get car with bad tires given rented from agency E) = P(BT | E) = 0.12 P(Get car with bad tires given rented from agency F) = P(BT | F) = 0.04 Now to answer the question. First draw a picture so that we can better understand what information we have and where we are going! 0.1
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This note was uploaded on 10/13/2010 for the course CEE 3040 at Cornell.

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section 1 - CEE 304 Section #1 Bayes Theorem Example: A...

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