chap16-TIF-SMUME5e

# chap16-TIF-SMUME5e - Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers...

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Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers 47 CHAPTER 16: TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND INDEX NUMBERS 1. The effect of an unpredictable, rare event will be contained in the ___________ component. a) trend b) cyclical c) irregular d) seasonal ANSWER: c TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Easy KEYWORDS: component factors, properties 2. The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be contained in the ____________ component. a) trend b) cyclical c) irregular d) seasonal ANSWER: a TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Easy KEYWORDS: component factors, properties 3. The fairly regular fluctuations that occur within each year would be contained in the _________________ component. a) trend b) cyclical c) irregular d) seasonal ANSWER: d TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Easy KEYWORDS: component factors, properties 4. The annual multiplicative time-series model does not possess _______ component. a) a trend b) a cyclical c) an irregular d) a seasonal ANSWER: d TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Easy KEYWORDS: component factors, properties

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48 Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers 5. Based on the following scatter plot, which of the time-series components is not present in this quarterly time series? 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Quarters Stock Returns a. Trend b. Seasonal c. Cyclical d. Irregular ANSWER: c TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Easy KEYWORDS: component factors, properties 6. The method of moving averages is used a) to plot a series. b) to exponentiate a series. c) to smooth a series. d) in regression analysis. ANSWER: c TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Easy KEYWORDS: moving averages 7. When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than smoothing, a) the previous smoothed value becomes the forecast. b) the current smoothed value becomes the forecast. c) the next smoothed value becomes the forecast. d) None of the above. ANSWER: b TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Moderate KEYWORDS: exponential smoothing, properties 8. In selecting an appropriate forecasting model, the following approaches are suggested: a) Perform a residual analysis. b) Measure the size of the forecasting error. c) Use the principle of parsimony.
Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers 49 d) All of the above. ANSWER: d TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Moderate KEYWORDS: model selection 9. To assess the adequacy of a forecasting model, one measure that is often used is a) quadratic trend analysis. b) the MAD. c) exponential smoothing. d) moving averages. ANSWER: b TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Easy KEYWORDS: model selection 10. Which of the following methods should not be used for short-term forecasts into the future? a) Exponential smoothing b) Moving averages c) Linear trend model d) Autoregressive modeling ANSWER: b TYPE: MC DIFFICULTY: Moderate KEYWORDS: moving averages, properties 11. A model that can be used to make predictions about long-term future values of a time series is a) linear trend. b)

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chap16-TIF-SMUME5e - Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers...

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