Real Life Stats Applicaions of the Week 2

Real Life Stats Applicaions of the Week 2 - Real Life Stats...

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Real Life Stats Application of the Week 2 Craps – your best “bet” at a casino Rules: The “shooter” rolls two dice If total is 7 or 11, pass line bet wins If total is 2, 3, or 12, pass line bet loses Otherwise, whatever is rolled (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) is called the “point” Now players can place an “odds bet” (usually up to 5x their original bet). This is betting that the “point” will be rolled again before a 7 is rolled (2, 3, 11, 12 nothing happens, keep rolling) Let’s find the probabilities of winning or losing your pass line bet right away. P(win immediately) = P(7 or 11 is rolled) = P(7) + P(11) (since mutually exclusive) =6/36 + 2/36 = 2/9 P(lose immediately) = P(2, 3, or 12) = P(2) + P(3) + P(12) (since mutually exclusive) = 1/36 + 2/36 + 1/36 = 1/9 Just for reference, we will need: P(4) = 3/36 P(10) = 3/36 P(5) = 4/36 P(9) = 4/36 P(6) = 5/36 P(8) = 5/36 Say the “point” is 4. What is P(win odds bet)? We want to know P(4 is rolled before 7 is rolled)
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Real Life Stats Applicaions of the Week 2 - Real Life Stats...

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