Real Life Stats Applicaions of the Week 3

# Real Life Stats Applicaions of the Week 3 - Real Life Stats...

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Real Life Stats Application of the Week 3 Let’s Make a Deal – the Monty Hall problem Based on a 70’s gameshow with host Monty Hall. In 1990, Marilyn vos Savant published this problem in her column in a magazine. Rules: Monty shows you three doors. Behind one is a car, and behind the other two are goats You pick a door, hoping to win the car Before your door is revealed, Monty (who knows which door has the car and which have goats) opens one of the remaining doors you didn’t choose, revealing a goat Now Monty offers you a choice: you can stay with the door you originally picked, or switch to the unopened door. What should you do? Intuition might tell you that there are two doors left (your original guess and the one he didn’t open) so your probability is 1/2 either way, and it doesn’t matter if you stay or switch. But actually (surprisingly) switching to the other door DOUBLES your chance of winning the car. Let’s see why. Say you chose door A originally.

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## This note was uploaded on 10/21/2010 for the course STAT 230 taught by Professor Various during the Fall '06 term at Waterloo.

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Real Life Stats Applicaions of the Week 3 - Real Life Stats...

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