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Lecture_Extrapolation

Lecture_Extrapolation - Projection Methods Trend...

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Projection Methods: Trend Extrapolation

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Data for Texas 1990-2007 Texas Denton Dewitt Texas Denton Dewitt 1990 16,986,510 273,525 18,840 Absolute Change 6,847,696 332,903 1,501 1991 17,386,135 288,065 19,024 % Change 40.3% 121.7% 8.0% 1992 17,737,340 302,153 19,143 Avg. Annual 402,806 19,583 88 1993 18,128,926 317,276 19,295 r (exponential) 2.0% 4.7% 0.4% 1994 18,515,163 332,667 19,429 1995 18,901,210 348,415 19,552 1996 19,270,462 364,205 19,646 1997 19,665,329 380,836 19,755 1998 20,068,989 398,009 19,861 1999 20,444,141 414,980 19,927 2000 20,851,820 432,976 20,013 2001 21,325,018 466,483 20,027 2002 21,779,893 490,753 20,295 2003 22,118,509 511,650 20,489 2004 22,490,022 533,362 20,363 2005 22,859,968 558,450 20,600 2006 23,507,783 590,120 20,432 2007 23,834,206 606,428 20,341 2010 24,330,612 2015 26,156,715 2020 28,005,788 2025 29,897,445 2030 31,830,058
Simple Methods

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Characteristics 2 time points of data Limited types of relationships with historical trends Low resource requirements Accuracy similar to more complex methods
Linear AAAC = (P l - P b ) / y P t = P l + z (AAAC) Denton (606,428 - 273,527) / 17 = 19,583 persons per year (1990-2007) 606,428 + 8 (19,583) = 763,092 (2015 projection)

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Exponential r = [ln(P l / P b )] / y P t = P l * e rz Dewitt [ln(20,341 / 18,840)] / 17 = 0.00394 or 0.394% per year (1990-2007) 20,341 * e (.00394)*8 20,341 * 1.032022 = 20,992 (2015 projection)
Complex Methods

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Characteristics More time-series data Statistical modeling Wide range of relationships of historical trends Greater resource requirements Probabilistic measures of forecast uncertainty
Basic Steps for Implementing Complex TEM 1.

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Lecture_Extrapolation - Projection Methods Trend...

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