Lecture_Structural%20Models

Lecture_Structural%20Models - Projection Methods:...

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Unformatted text preview: Projection Methods: Structural Models Characteristics Use non-demographic factors in the projection process Focus on the components of population change Wide range of complexity Represents a theoretical framework that postulates relationships between demographic and non-demographic factors Objective Discuss their general framework and rationale Discuss most common ways of implementation Accounting for Land Use Policy in the San Diego County Forecast Demographic and Economic Forecasting Model (DEFM) Local Land Use Policies Interregional Commuting Model Selected Characteristics, San Diego County, 2030 Difference Baseline LU Adjust Numeric Percent Population 4,067,200 4,007,800-59,400-1.5% Housing Stock 1,484,700 1,394,200-90,500-6.1% Jobs 1,865,900 1,838,900-27,000-1.4% PPH 2.75 2.84 0.09 3.3% Vacancy Rate 4.6% 3.1%-1.5%-32.6% Home Prices ($2005) $490,000 $514,000 24,000 4.9% Interregional Commute 25,000 124,000 99,000 396.0% Why Structural Models of Migration Most volatile component of change Important source of subnational population change Tied to economic swings Widely used No successful economic models of subnational fertility and mortality that improve upon methods presented earlier Reasons for Moving in the U.S., 2005-2006 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 Family Work Housing Other Percent of Movers Short-Distance Long-Distance Foreign Reasons for Short-Distance Moves by Age, 2005-2006 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 Family Work Housing Other Percent of Movers Ages 20-64 Ages 65+ Reasons for Long-Distance Moves by Age, 2005-2006 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Family Work Housing Other Percent of Movers Ages 20-64 Ages 65+ Reasons for Foreign Moves by Age, 2005-2006 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 Family Work Housing Other Percent of Movers Ages 20-64 Ages 65+ Survey Data Provide information on motives of migrants Limitations...
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Lecture_Structural%20Models - Projection Methods:...

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