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Assignment%203_Results - Female Population Projection Based...

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Unformatted text preview: Female Population Projection Based on Cohort-Component Method and Gross Migration, San Diego County, 2015 Change from Domestic Migration 2010-2015 0 -454 -2,146 -231 -485 -3,327 1,262 -467 -598 -614 -1,065 -1,012 -878 -1,116 -253 -93 5 -111 -11,583 Age in 2010 Births 2005-2010 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Total Age in 2015 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ 2010 Population 114,592 112,324 100,728 110,732 112,593 106,802 110,686 114,547 112,475 118,695 110,263 94,950 78,454 55,037 42,860 36,749 69,548 1,602,035 Births 110,165 Survival Rates 0.98634 0.99127 0.99127 0.99091 0.99060 0.99034 0.98999 0.98877 0.98661 0.98399 0.98031 0.97347 0.96300 0.94658 0.91945 0.88197 0.81685 0.58287 2015 Survived Population 108,660 113,591 111,344 99,813 109,691 111,506 105,733 109,443 113,014 110,674 116,358 107,338 91,437 74,263 50,604 37,801 30,018 40,538 1,641,826 Deaths 2010-2015 1,505 1,001 980 915 1,041 1,087 1,069 1,243 1,533 1,801 2,337 2,925 3,513 4,191 4,433 5,059 6,731 29,010 70,374 Domestic Domestic OutIn-Migrants Migrants 2010-2015 2010-2015 0 10,677 14,067 11,885 13,785 28,387 29,853 25,317 19,809 13,495 8,891 6,981 7,164 6,208 4,467 3,609 2,751 2,611 209,957 0 11,131 16,213 12,116 14,270 31,714 28,591 25,784 20,407 14,109 9,956 7,993 8,042 7,324 4,720 3,702 2,746 2,722 221,540 2015 Forecast 108,660 113,137 109,198 99,582 109,206 108,179 106,995 108,976 112,416 110,060 115,293 106,326 90,559 73,147 50,351 37,708 30,023 40,427 1,630,243 Components of Change, 2010-2015 28,208 Female Population 110,165 Births 70,374 Deaths -11,583 Domestic Migration Birth Sequence 5-Year Fertility Rate Age in 2010 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Total Age in 2015 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 Original 0.000000 0.169500 0.438000 0.530500 0.556500 0.307000 0.079000 0.000000 Averaged 0.084750 0.303750 0.484250 0.543500 0.431750 0.193000 0.039500 At Risk Population Components Domestic Domestic In-Migrants Out-Migrants 2010 Pop 1/2 deaths 100,728 458 11,885 12,116 110,732 521 13,785 14,270 112,593 544 28,387 31,714 106,802 535 29,853 28,591 110,686 622 25,317 25,784 114,547 767 19,809 20,407 112,475 901 13,495 14,109 768,563 4,348 142,531 146,991 At- Risk Population 100,039 109,726 108,722 107,529 109,597 113,182 110,960 759,755 Births 8,478 33,329 52,649 58,442 47,319 21,844 4,383 % Female Births 226,444 0.4865 110,165 Females 116,279 Males Migration Sequence Age in 2010 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+ Age in 2015 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ San Diego 114,592 112,324 100,728 110,732 112,593 106,802 110,686 114,547 112,475 118,695 110,263 94,950 78,454 55,037 42,860 36,749 69,548 1,602,035 2010 Population U.S. Adjusted U.S 10,480,581 10,018,917 10,004,637 10,714,652 10,435,176 10,618,299 9,847,889 10,651,191 10,995,312 11,816,764 11,191,315 9,776,361 8,037,513 6,173,580 4,920,040 4,269,011 7,528,445 157,479,683 10,365,989 9,906,593 9,903,909 10,603,920 10,322,583 10,511,497 9,737,203 10,536,644 10,882,837 11,698,069 11,081,052 9,681,411 7,959,059 6,118,543 4,877,180 4,232,262 7,458,897 155,877,648 Domestic Migration Rates In Out 0.00103 0.00142 0.00120 0.00130 0.00275 0.00284 0.00260 0.00188 0.00124 0.00076 0.00063 0.00074 0.00078 0.00073 0.00074 0.00065 0.00035 0.09714 0.14434 0.12028 0.12887 0.28167 0.26770 0.23295 0.17815 0.12544 0.08388 0.07249 0.08470 0.09335 0.08576 0.08638 0.07471 0.03914 Gross Domestic Migration, 2010-2015 In Out In-Out 10,677 14,067 11,885 13,785 28,387 29,853 25,317 19,809 13,495 8,891 6,981 7,164 6,208 4,467 3,609 2,751 2,611 209,957 11,131 16,213 12,116 14,270 31,714 28,591 25,784 20,407 14,109 9,956 7,993 8,042 7,324 4,720 3,702 2,746 2,722 221,540 -454 -2,146 -231 -485 -3,327 1,262 -467 -598 -614 -1,065 -1,012 -878 -1,116 -253 -93 5 -111 -11,583 Female Population Projection Based on the Hamilton Perry Method, San Diego County, 2015 2010 114,592 112,324 100,728 110,732 112,593 106,802 110,686 114,547 112,475 118,695 110,263 94,950 78,454 55,037 42,860 36,749 31,718 37,830 1,602,035 CCR n/a 1.008 1.031 1.037 1.032 1.027 1.023 1.015 1.003 1.007 0.987 0.981 0.968 0.954 0.921 0.884 0.813 0.591 2015 115,108 115,471 115,783 104,465 114,256 115,615 109,230 112,372 114,903 113,283 117,098 108,217 91,913 74,806 50,676 37,876 29,886 41,078 1,682,036 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+ Total Child Woman Ratio, 2005 0-4 / 15-44 0.17159 No. 4. Based on the assumptions, the female population in San Diego County is projected to increase by 28,208 between 2010 and 2015. Although there is postive growth of 39,791 due to natural increase, the loss of population due to domestic migration of -11,583 reduces the growth in population. No. 5. The Hamilton-Perry (HP) projection of 1,682,0360 is 51,793 larger than the Cohort-Component (CC) projection of 1,630,243 in 2015. The CC projection only takes into account domestinc migration, while the HP method also accounts for foreign migration, which is increasing in San Diego County. ...
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This note was uploaded on 10/20/2010 for the course ECON 125 taught by Professor Tayman during the Spring '08 term at UCSD.

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