Lecture_Cohort_Component

Lecture_Cohort_Component - Projection Methods:...

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Unformatted text preview: Projection Methods: Cohort-Component Age Cohort Typically defined 1-year (e.g. 5) 5-year (e.g. 5-9) 10-year (5-14) Reflects of past birth cohorts Age in 2010 Birth Years 10-14 1995-2000 20-24 1985-1990 55-60 1950-1955 80-84 1925-1930 Ageing Through Time Year Age 2010 20-24 2015 25-29 2020 30-34 2025 35-39 2030 40-44 2035 45-49 2040 50-54 2045 55-59 2050 60-64 2055 65-69 Integrity of Age Group Cohorts and Length of Projection Interval 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 . . . 80 to 84 85+ . . . 2010 2015 5 to 9 Births 2010-2015 0 to 4 10 to 14 15 to 19 5-year Age Cohorts 85+ 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 99 to 100 100+ . . . 2010 2011 1 to 2 Births 2010-2011 0 to 1 2 to 3 3 to 4 Single-Year Age Cohorts 100+ Non-Integrity of Age Group Cohorts and Length of Projection Interval 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 . . . 80 to 84 85+ . . 2010 2011 5 to 9 Births 2010-2011 0 to 4 10 to 14 15 to 19 5-year Age Cohorts 85+ 80 to 84 Share of Population in Last Year of 5 Year Age Cohort, Maryland 2000 2005 0-4 20% 20% 5-9 21% 20% 10-14 19% 21% 15-19 19% 19% 20-24 20% 21% 25-29 23% 20% 30-34 21% 22% 35-39 20% 21% 40-44 19% 20% 45-49 19% 19% 50-54 16% 19% 55-59 17% 16% 60-64 18% 17% 65-69 19% 18% 70-74 19% 19% 75-79 18% 18% 80-84 16% 17% Demographic Detail 5-yr age cohorts most common (0-4, 5-9,,85+) 1-yr age cohorts (0,1,2,,100+) 1- yr models Provide detailed look into future demographics More costly and time consuming Separate males from females, Why? Often further stratified by race Overview of CCM Steps 1. Project survivors and deaths 2. Project migrants In- and Out- migration rates Net migration rates 3. Project births and population of youngest age group 0-4 in a 5-yr. model 0 in a 1-yr model 4. Add youngest year to complete projection and calculate components of change Example Project 2015 Population for Maryland Launch year = 2010 Target year = 2015 Projection horizon 2010-2015 Projection interval 5 years Assumptions Hold 2005-10 migration rates constant 2015 fertility rates- synthetic method tied to U.S. fertility trends 2015 survival rates- 2.5% increase in 2010 survival rates Subscript definitions: n = width of age cohort (i.e., 5-years in this example) x = beginning age of cohort (e.g., age 5) l = launch year (i.e., 2005 in this example) z = projection horizon, the time interval between the launch and target years (i.e., 5-years in this example; same as the width of the age cohort) t = target year (i.e., 2010 in this example) l to t = period between the launch and target years Equation Illustration: n SURVP x+z,t = n P x,l * n S x Survived Population n D x,l to t = n P x,l- n SURVP x+z,t Projected Deaths Local Area Launch Year Population Age(x) Survival Rates Age(x) Survived Population Age(x+z) Cohort Component Method Mortality Module Deaths Age(x) Calculation of the Female Survived Population Projection...
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Lecture_Cohort_Component - Projection Methods:...

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