Lecture_Fertility

Lecture_Fertility - Fertility Fertility Trends and Issues...

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Fertility
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Fertility Trends and Issues
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U.S. Total Fertility Rate and Births, 1920-2005 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Total Fertility Rate 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Births (in 000) Births TFR Great Depression Baby Boom 1946-1962 Baby Boomlet 1975-1990 Baby Bust 1964-1975
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Fertility Facts U.S. fertility higher than most industrialized countries 6-8 kids not uncommon in African and Middle East Fertility rates vary more than mortality rates 1950-60s concern was about population explosion Today below replacement fertility creating challenges in many countries
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Why are Fertility Rates Low? Increased female education and labor force participation Cost of children Delayed marriage Contraceptive availability Changes in values and norms
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Fertility Assumption Affects Population Size TFR Assumption Impacts Population Size 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 2105 2110 2115 2120 Population TFR 1.2 TFR 2.1 TFR 3.0 TFR 3.6 Population Change 2010-2120 TFR 1.2 -75% TFR 2.1. 15% TFR 3.0 257% FTR 3.6 567%
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Lower TFR Leads to Older Populations 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
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Lecture_Fertility - Fertility Fertility Trends and Issues...

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