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Lecture_Special%20Adjustments

Lecture_Special%20Adjustments - Projection Methods Special...

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Projection Methods: Special Adjustments
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Background Basic methods- Applied without considering factors beyond those discussed Adjusted methods- Basic methods adjusted for special circumstances International migration Special populations Controlling or matching a set of projections to a predetermined number Creating additional age or temporal detail Special procedures increase complexity, but enhance the usefulness of the projections
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Foreign Migration
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Top-Down Model For Net Foreign Migration San Diego County, 2015 Total Net Migration 27,607 U.S. Foreign Migration * San Diego Share (1,453,000 * 0.019) Age Group Allocation Factors 2010 Projection 0 to 4 0.033 899 5 to14 0.127 3,518 15 to 24 0.182 5,013 25 to 34 0.295 8,156 35 to 44 0.170 4,696 45 to 54 0.086 2,375 55 to 64 0.059 1,639 65 to 74 0.037 1,010 75+ 0.011 301 1.000 27,607
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Demographic Profile of Foreign Migrants Using the Weighted Average Method Immigration to the U.S., 2007 Age Group Mexico Philipines Other Countries 0 to 4 3,766 1,740 36,289 5 to14 29,203 6,404 93,786 15 to 24 45,297 8,140 125,893 25 to 34 63,999 14,014 234,548 35 to 44 27,993 8,943 161,355 45 to 54 12,904 5,769 79,673 55 to 64 12,179 4,637 40,319 65 to 74 7,971 2,793 23,566 75+ 2,477 649 7,570 205,789 53,089 802,999 Local Weights 0.40 0.15 0.45 Age Group Mexico Philipines Other Countries Weighted Average 0 to 4 0.018 0.033 0.045 0.033 5 to14 0.142 0.121 0.117 0.127 15 to 24 0.220 0.153 0.157 0.182 25 to 34 0.311 0.264 0.292 0.295 35 to 44 0.136 0.168 0.201 0.170 45 to 54 0.063 0.109 0.099 0.086 55 to 64 0.059 0.087 0.050 0.059 65 to 74 0.039 0.053 0.029 0.037 75+ 0.012 0.012 0.009 0.011 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 (e.g., 0.033 = (.018 *0.40) + (0.033 * 0.15) + (0.045 * 0.45)
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Demographic Profile of Foreign Migrants Using the Weighted Average Method Immigration to the U.S., 2007 Age Group Mexico Philipines Other Countries 0 to 4 3,766 1,740 36,289 5 to14 29,203 6,404 93,786 15 to 24 45,297 8,140 125,893 25 to 34 63,999 14,014 234,548 35 to 44 27,993 8,943 161,355 45 to 54 12,904 5,769 79,673 55 to 64 12,179 4,637 40,319 65 to 74 7,971 2,793 23,566 75+ 2,477 649 7,570 205,789 53,089 802,999 Local Weights 0.2 0.6 0.2 Age Group Mexico Philipines Other Countries Weighted Average 0 to 4 0.018 0.033 0.045 0.032 5 to14 0.142 0.121 0.117 0.124 15 to 24 0.220 0.153 0.157 0.167 25 to 34 0.311 0.264 0.292 0.279 35 to 44 0.136 0.168 0.201 0.168 45 to 54 0.063 0.109 0.099 0.098 55 to 64 0.059 0.087 0.050 0.074 65 to 74 0.039 0.053 0.029 0.045 75+ 0.012 0.012 0.009 0.012 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 (e.g., 0.032 = (.018 *0.2) + (0.033 * 0.6) + (0.045 * 0.2)
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Special Populations
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Special Population Characteristics Group of persons located because of an administrative or legislative action (Examples?) Special population complicate projections Pattern of change differ from general population Often have different demographic characteristics Relatively stable demographic characteristics Do not age in place Effect of special population greater the smaller the area
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Projecting Special Population Develop CCM for special and non-special pops Not often used Data limitations, costs, difficulty in developing accurate assumptions, not increase accuracy Holding special population constant Changing overall size of special population while holding composition constant Trend methods Controlling routines
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