Lecture_Evaluation

Lecture_Evaluation - Evaluating Projections Evaluation...

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Evaluating Projections
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Evaluation Criteria Forecast Accuracy Provision of necessary detail Face Validity Plausibility Costs Timeliness Ease of application and explanation Usefulness as a analytical tool Political acceptability
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Provision of Necessary Detail Perhaps most fundamental criterion Geographic Demographic and other variables Temporal Meet the needs of users
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Face Validity Projection uses best methods, reliable data, reasonable assumptions, and accounts for relevant factors Choice of methods Data and assumptions Accounting for relevant factors
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Assumption Drag Use of assumptions after validity contradicted by data Received wisdom is not often questioned New trends viewed as temporary Delays in data lead to lag when changes are incorporated into projections
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Plausibility Focus on outcomes of the projection Reasonable and defensible Compare to historical values Compare to other areas Compare internally
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