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AAP-Financials-ForecastS10-1

AAP-Financials-ForecastS10-1 - 3,000,000 f(x = 0.43x...

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2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 f(x) = 0.43x + 289215.63 R² = 1 Cost of Goods Sold versus Sales Sales Cost of Goods Sold
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Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) INCOME STATEMENT 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sales 2,288,022 2,517,639 3,287,883 3,493,696 3,770,297 4,264,971 4,616,503 4,844,404 Cost of Goods Sold 1,311,401 1,344,058 1,729,187 1,783,331 1,910,967 2,129,935 2,275,382 2,375,935 Gross Profit 976,621 1,173,581 1,558,696 1,710,365 1,859,330 2,135,036 2,341,121 2,468,469 Selling, General & Admin. Expenses 803,106 959,266 1,210,477 1,305,867 1,424,613 1,605,986 1,797,814 1,904,540 Ebitda 173,515 214,315 348,219 404,498 434,717 529,050 543,307 563,929 Depreciation & Amortization 80,726 97,555 110,702 105,847 105,959 120,558 139,957 147,500 Operating Income (EBIT) 92,789 116,760 237,517 298,651 328,758 408,492 403,350 416,429 Interest Expense 66,640 61,895 78,219 37,576 20,069 32,384 35,992 34,809 Income Taxes 10,535 11,312 47,799 78,424 117,721 144,198 138,597 144,317 Other Income 1,012 1,283 1,158 -46,947 -2,941 2,815 1,571 1,014 Net Income From Continuing Operations 16,626 17,189 75,392 125,287 188,027 234,725 231,318 238,317 Net Income From Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 -352 -39 0 0 0 Net Income From Total Operations 16,626 17,189 75,392 124,935 187,988 234,725 231,318 238,317 Other Gains/(Losses) 2,933 -5,747 -10,373 0 0 0 0 0 Total Net Income 19,559 11,442 65,019 124,935 187,988 234,725 231,318 238,317 Dividends Paid Per Share - - - - - - 0.18 0.25 Common Shares Outstanding 84,823 98,026 107,151 110,770 108,313 108,198 105,351 99,060 Dividends Paid (Total) 0 0 0 0 0 0 19,153 25,152 Addition to Retained Earnings 19,559 11,442 65,019 124,935 187,988 234,725 212,165 213,165 *Figures in thousands except per share data. A B C D E F G H I 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
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Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) BALANCE SHEET 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Current Assets Cash & Equivalents 18,009 18,117 13,885 11,487 56,321 40,783 11,128 14,654 Receivables 80,578 93,704 102,574 84,799 101,969 94,689 97,046 84,983 Inventories 788,914 982,000 1,048,803 1,113,781 1,201,450 1,367,099 1,463,340 1,529,469 Other Current Assets 10,274 42,027 20,210 16,387 17,687 45,369 40,459 53,719 Total Current Assets 897,775 1,135,848 1,185,472 1,226,454 1,377,427 1,547,940 1,611,973 1,682,825 Long-Term Assets Fixed Assets 410,960 711,282 728,432 712,702 786,212 898,851 994,977 1,047,944 Intangible Assets 0 0 0 0 0 67,094 61,644 60,562 Other Long-Term Assets 47,625 103,485 51,321 43,915 38,323 28,264 14,087 14,235 Total Long-Term Assets 458,585 814,767 779,753 756,617 824,535 994,209 1,070,708 1,122,741 Total Assets 1,356,360 1,950,615 1,965,225 1,983,071 2,201,962 2,542,149 2,682,681 2,805,566 Current Liabilities Accounts payable 387,852 429,041 470,740 568,275 587,948 748,599 651,587 688,970 Short-Term Debt 20,627 58,463 10,690 53,305 51,884 82,930 34,273 184,159 Other Current Liabilities 167,756 206,245 241,146 232,365 321,293 309,935 427,560 352,799 Total Current Liabilities 576,235 693,749 722,576 853,945 961,125 1,141,464 1,113,420 1,225,928 Long-Term Liabilities Long-Term Debt 579,921 932,022 724,832 422,780 438,300 406,040 477,173 505,062 Other Liabilities 43,933 36,273 49,461 75,102 80,222 74,874 61,234 50,781 Total Long-Term Liabilities 623,854 968,295 774,293 497,882 518,522 480,914 538,407 555,843 Total Liabilities 1,200,089 1,662,044 1,496,869 1,351,827 1,479,647 1,622,378 1,651,827 1,781,771 Common-Stock Equity Common-Stock 283 3 4 7 8 11 11 10 Retained Earnings -216,577 -205,294 -140,275 -15,340 172,648 407,373 613,218 824,471 Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0 -146,370 -55,668 0 -74,644 Other Equity 396 -2,676 -1,568 -529 814 3,090 3,472 -701 Total Common-Stock Equity 156,271 288,571 468,356 631,244 722,315 919,771 1,030,854 1,023,795 Total Liabilities & Equity 1,356,360 1,950,615 1,965,225 1,983,071 2,201,962 2,542,149 2,682,681 2,805,566 Common Shares Outstanding 84,823 98,026 107,151 110,770 108,313 108,198 105,351 99,060 Basic Shares Outstanding 84,845 85,868 105,094 109,443 110,790 108,318 106,129 103,826 Diluted Shares Outstanding 85,789 87,430 108,509 112,058 113,164 109,987 107,124 104,654 *Figures in thousands except per share data. A B C D E F G H I 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64
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2008 5,142,255 2,532,251 2,610,004 2,048,137 561,867 146,940 414,927 33,729 142,654 -506 238,038 0 238,038 0 238,038 0.24 94,852 23,181 214,857 J 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
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2008 37,358 97,203 1,623,088 49,977 1,807,626 1,071,405 62,170 22,864 1,156,439 2,964,065 791,330 157,977 415,687 1,364,994 455,161 68,744 523,905 1,888,899 10 1,039,628 -291,114 -9,349 1,075,166 2,964,065 94,852 94,655 95,350 J 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64
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INCOME STATEMENT Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sales 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Cost of Goods Sold 57.3% 53.4% 52.6% 51.0% 50.7% 49.9% 49.3% 49.0% Gross Profit 42.7% 46.6% 47.4% 49.0% 49.3% 50.1% 50.7% 51.0% Selling, General & Admin. Expenses 35.1% 38.1% 36.8% 37.4% 37.8% 37.7% 38.9% 39.3% Ebitda 7.6% 8.5% 10.6% 11.6% 11.5% 12.4% 11.8% 11.6% Depreciation & Amortization 3.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% Operating Income (EBIT) 4.1% 4.6% 7.2% 8.5% 8.7% 9.6% 8.7% 8.6% Interest Expense 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% Income Taxes 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 2.2% 3.1% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0% Other Income 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% -1.3% -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Net Income From Continuing Operations 0.7% 0.7% 2.3% 3.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.9% Net Income From Discontinued Operations 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net Income From Total Operations 0.7% 0.7% 2.3% 3.6% 5.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.9% Other Gains/(Losses) 0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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