Forecasting-Examples

Forecasting-Examples - GAP Sales Nave Model 1 Root MSE...

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Unformatted text preview: GAP Sales Nave Model 1 Root MSE 271,543.80 Date Sales Forecast Squared Error % Error Mar-85 105,715 Jun-85 120,136 105,715 207,965,241 -12.0% Sep-85 181,669 120,136 3,786,310,089 -33.9% Dec-85 239,813 181,669 3,380,724,736 -24.2% Mar-86 159,980 239,813 6,373,307,889 49.9% Jun-86 164,760 159,980 22,848,400 -2.9% Sep-86 224,800 164,760 3,604,801,600 -26.7% Dec-86 298,469 224,800 5,427,121,561 -24.7% Mar-87 211,060 298,469 7,640,333,281 41.4% Jun-87 217,753 211,060 44,796,249 -3.1% Sep-87 273,616 217,753 3,120,674,769 -20.4% Dec-87 359,592 273,616 7,391,872,576 -23.9% Mar-88 241,348 359,592 13,981,643,536 49.0% Jun-88 264,328 241,348 528,080,400 -8.7% Sep-88 322,752 264,328 3,413,363,776 -18.1% Dec-88 423,669 322,752 10,184,240,889 -23.8% Mar-89 309,925 423,669 12,937,697,536 36.7% Jun-89 325,939 309,925 256,448,196 -4.9% Sep-89 405,601 325,939 6,346,034,244 -19.6% Dec-89 545,131 405,601 19,468,620,900 -25.6% Mar-90 402,368 545,131 20,381,274,169 35.5% Jun-90 404,996 402,368 6,906,384 -0.6% Sep-90 501,690 404,996 9,349,729,636 -19.3% Dec-90 624,726 501,690 15,137,857,296 -19.7% Mar-91 490,300 624,726 18,070,349,476 27.4% Jun-91 523,056 490,300 1,072,955,536 -6.3% Sep-91 702,052 523,056 32,039,568,016 -25.5% Dec-91 803,485 702,052 10,288,653,489 -12.6% Mar-92 588,864 803,485 46,062,173,641 36.4% Jun-92 614,114 588,864 637,562,500 -4.1% Sep-92 827,222 614,114 45,415,019,664 -25.8% Dec-92 930,209 827,222 10,606,322,169 -11.1% Mar-93 643,580 930,209 82,156,183,641 44.5% Jun-93 693,192 643,580 2,461,350,544 -7.2% Sep-93 898,677 693,192 42,224,085,225 -22.9% Dec-93 1,060,230 898,677 26,099,371,809 -15.2% Mar-94 751,670 1,060,230 95,209,273,600 41.0% Jun-94 773,131 751,670 460,574,521 -2.8% Sep-94 988,346 773,131 46,317,496,225 -21.8% Dec-94 1,209,790 988,346 49,037,445,136 -18.3% Mar-95 848,688 1,209,790 130,394,654,404 42.5% Jun-95 868,514 848,688 393,070,276 -2.3% Sep-95 1,155,930 868,514 82,607,957,056 -24.9% Dec-95 1,522,120 1,155,930 134,095,116,100 -24.1% Mar-96 1,113,150 1,522,120 167,256,460,900 36.7% Jun-96 1,120,340 1,113,150 51,696,100 -0.6% Sep-96 1,383,000 1,120,340 68,990,275,600 -19.0% F t = A t-1 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Ma 3 500,003 1,000,003 1,500,003 2,000,003 2,500,003 3,000,003 3,500,003 4,000,003 4,500,003 Sales F Dec-96 1,667,900 1,383,000 81,168,010,000 -17.1% Mar-97 1,231,186 1,667,900 190,719,117,796 35.5% Jun-97 1,345,221 1,231,186 13,003,981,225 -8.5% Sep-97 1,765,939 1,345,221 177,003,635,524 -23.8% Dec-97 2,165,479 1,765,939 159,632,211,600 -18.5% Mar-98 1,719,712 2,165,479 198,708,218,289 25.9% Jun-98 1,904,970 1,719,712 34,320,526,564 -9.7% Sep-98 2,399,900 1,904,970 244,955,704,900 -20.6% Dec-98 3,029,900 2,399,900 396,900,000,000 -20.8% Mar-99 2,277,700 3,029,900 565,804,840,000 33.0% Jun-99 2,453,300 2,277,700 30,835,360,000 -7.2% Sep-99 3,045,386 2,453,300 350,565,831,396 -19.4% Dec-99 3,858,939 3,045,386 661,868,483,809 -21.1%-21....
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Forecasting-Examples - GAP Sales Nave Model 1 Root MSE...

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