stats2 - Monday August 23 POLS4150 RESEARCH METHODS IN...

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Monday, August 23 http://emwilk.myweb.uga.edu/POLS4150.html Course Webpage: POLS4150 – RESEARCH METHODS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE (90595) Basics of Empirical Research Induction vs. Deduction: which is the one true method?! Characteristics of the Scientific Method Identifying Empirical Statements.
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Units of Analysis – who / what we study EX: Individuals / voters / nation-states / members of Congress Conducting Research – the Basics Variables – characteristics of our units of analysis that vary Dependent Variable Individuals / voters – age, party id, issue preferences nation-states – level of democracy, level of protest, electoral institutions members of Congress votes, party, district income “Dependent” upon independent variables The political phenomena we seek to explain
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Theory – Generalization that explains phenomena. States testable hypotheses Empirical Research Confirmed with more observations Hypothesis – testable statement that is plausible Observable Implications – If our theory / hypothesis is correct, then there should be observable consequences.
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Empirical Research Conceptual hypotheses, EX: Incumbents who face divisive primaries have more difficulty in the general Measurement: Dependent Variable (election outcome) Measurement: Independent Variable (primary divisiveness) % of the vote? win or lose? % of 2-party vote? Challenge or no challenge % of the vote? 55% or less?
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Empirical Research H1: Incumbents facing a primary challenge are less likely to win the general than those who do not H2: Winning a primary with less than 55% of the total vote decreases an incumbent’s chances of winning H3: Incumbents with smaller margins of victory in their primary elections are more likely to have smaller margins of victory in the general Observables: (Operational Hypotheses) Conceptual hypotheses Incumbents who face divisive primaries have more difficulty in the general
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Deduction Approaches Form theory after observation Develop theory, then test hypotheses Induction drawing an inference from observations or premises Specific observations support general theory
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Deduction vs. Induction General Nations with higher levels of education are more likely to be democracies Deduction Induction Specific Australia, Sweden, Denmark, Japan, Canada, and Iceland have a high proportion of citizens with advanced degrees & frequent competitive elections
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generalization Conceptualize Hypotheses Operational hypotheses Revising original generalization Data analyses: reject or fail to reject Hypotheses? Research Design
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This note was uploaded on 10/25/2010 for the course POLI 4150 taught by Professor Wilk during the Fall '10 term at UGA.

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stats2 - Monday August 23 POLS4150 RESEARCH METHODS IN...

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