physics2hindsight - Shayna Russell 18710646 Arter...

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Shayna Russell 18710646 Arter Psychology 2 April 1, 2010 Hindsight Bias How many times a day do you hear the phrase, “I would have known that,” or, “I told you so”? Hindsight bias is 20/20 vision for the past. Hindsight bias is the proclivity to see proceedings that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. A daily occurrence, we are constantly looking to the past with the wisdom of the future. For example, someone might casually observe, “it looks like rain in the future,” given his or her general understanding of local weather patterns. If it rains shortly after this statement was made, the person might feel that the prediction was stronger than it initially was. Incorrect or inaccurate predictions tend not to be remembered as well as abstractedly correct predictions, reinforcing the idea in someone's mind that his or her predictive skills are better than they really are. In acute cases,
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This note was uploaded on 10/28/2010 for the course ANTHRO 2/AC taught by Professor Wilkes during the Spring '09 term at University of California, Berkeley.

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physics2hindsight - Shayna Russell 18710646 Arter...

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