Lecture+4+-+SMDs+and+Duverger_s+Law+10.12.10-- notes

Lecture+4+-+SMDs+and+Duverger_s+Law+10.12.10-- notes -...

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1 Reading Quantitative Work What is a dependent variable? What is an independent variable? Coefficient? A number that indicates the size of the impact of an independent variable on the dependent variable Typically means that a single unit increase in the independent variable is correlated with an increase in the dependent variable that is equal to the coefficient Will give example Statistical significance? – Suggests a high level of confidence that the independent variable is in fact strongly correlated with the dependent variable Usually indicated by *
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2 How to read this table What are dependent variable & independent variables? What trying to explain? What here is “statistically significant”? What’s that mean? What do we learn here? When we see a 1% increase in unemployment, we are likely to see a 20% (actually % point) decrease in incumbent’s vote Each $1,000 in campaign expenditures tends to see 0.5% (0.5% point) increase in incumbent’s vote Dependent variable = Proportion of Vote won by Incumbent Variable Name Coefficient Standard Error Unemployment -0.200 0.050** Campaign Expenditures (in $1,000s) 0.005 0.001**
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3 Single Member Districts (SMDs): Electoral Rules Plurality Majority Alternative Vote (or IRV)
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4 Duverger’s Law What is it? SMDs (plurality)
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This note was uploaded on 11/01/2010 for the course POL pol140a taught by Professor Scheiner during the Fall '10 term at UC Davis.

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Lecture+4+-+SMDs+and+Duverger_s+Law+10.12.10-- notes -...

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