lec_16_110B-1 - Economics 110B World Economic History II...

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Unformatted text preview: Economics 110B World Economic History II Spring 2009 University of California, Davis Lecture 16: Global Economy in the 21st Century: Outlook and Prospects Information on the NEXT EXAM The exam structure will be identical to the last exam. 10 Multiple choice. 2 short answers composed of 3 parts. Everything since the last exam is fair game for inclusion on the exam. PS, the currency of Nigeria is the Naira not the NAIRU which is the Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment Today’s program Wrap up from last lecture… New Stuff: The international Economy: The Bretton Woods II system. The future of Free Trade Financial Crises Capitalism and Democracy in the 21 st century Readings Robert Fogel “Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculation” Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System” Jagdish Bhagwati “Free Trade in the 21st Century: Managing Viruses, Phobias and Social Agendas” Michael Bordo “The Crisis of 2007: The Same Old Story, Only the Players Have Changed.” Introduction The global system has gone from integrated to disintegration, to rising integration. Stability was the hallmark of the 19 th century and Bretton woods. Will the future be as stable or full of crises? Will there be a ‘backlash’ to globalization? What prospects for further human development? A Current Event: Bretton Woods II Since the 1990s the US has been running high current account deficits This cannot go on forever… Some adjustment must take place Optimists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, Garber) argue this is a self- enforcing system similar to Bretton Woods (1960-1973) The US Current Account Deficit, 1990-2008 Source: Obstfeld and Rogoff: NBER WP 10869 Chinese Trade , 1992-2008 Source: Setser, Brad http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/19/green-shoots-in-chinas-april-trade-data/ Source: Setser, Brad “Follow the Money” blog http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/page/3/ The US Net Foreign Investment Position Source: Obstfeld and Rogoff: NBER WP 10869 Who is Accumulating the US Assets? 2005 Source: Obstfeld and Rogoff: NBER WP 10869 Who is Accumulating the US Assets?...
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This note was uploaded on 11/08/2010 for the course ECN 110B 110B taught by Professor Wilson during the Winter '10 term at UC Davis.

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lec_16_110B-1 - Economics 110B World Economic History II...

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