lec_16_110B-1 - Economics110B WorldEconomic HistoryII...

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    Economics 110B  World Economic  History II Spring 2009  University of California, Davis Lecture 16: Global Economy in the 21st  Century: Outlook and Prospects
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    Information on the NEXT EXAM The exam structure will be identical to the last  exam. 10 Multiple choice. 2 short answers  composed of 3 parts. Everything since the last exam is fair game for  inclusion on the exam. PS, the currency of Nigeria is the Naira not the  NAIRU which is the Non-accelerating Inflation  Rate of Unemployment
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    Today’s program Wrap up from last lecture… New Stuff: The international Economy: The Bretton Woods II  system. The future of Free Trade Financial Crises Capitalism and Democracy in the 21 st  century
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    Readings Robert Fogel “Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts  and Speculation” Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber  “An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System” Jagdish Bhagwati “Free Trade in the 21st Century:  Managing Viruses, Phobias and Social Agendas” Michael Bordo “The Crisis of 2007: The  Same Old Story,  Only the Players Have Changed.”
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    Introduction The global system has gone from integrated to  disintegration, to rising integration.  Stability was the hallmark of the 19 th  century and  Bretton woods. Will the future be as stable or full  of crises? Will there be a ‘backlash’ to globalization? What prospects for further human development?
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    A Current Event: Bretton Woods II Since the 1990s the US has been running high current account  deficits This cannot go on forever… Some adjustment must take place Optimists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, Garber) argue this is a self- enforcing system similar to Bretton Woods (1960-1973)
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    The US Current Account Deficit, 1990-2008 Source: Obstfeld and Rogoff: NBER WP 10869
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    Chinese Trade , 1992-2008 Source: Setser, Brad http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/05/19/green-shoots-in-chinas-april-trade-data/
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    Source: Setser, Brad “Follow the Money” blog http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/page/3/
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    The US Net Foreign Investment Position Source: Obstfeld and Rogoff: NBER WP 10869
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    Who is Accumulating the US Assets? 2005 Source: Obstfeld and Rogoff: NBER WP 10869
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    Who is Accumulating the US Assets?
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