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Brett Dagenais 09/17/2010 Homework Assignment #1 BADM 120-11 Prof. Altug 4.1. a) 3-week moving average: Oct 12 th = (Oct 5 th +Sept 28 th +Sept 21 st )/3 = (374+368+381)/3 = 374.333 b) 3-week weighted moving average: Oct12th = (0.6*Oct 5 th +0.3*Sept 28 th +0.1*Sept 21 st )/1 = (0.6*374+0.3*368+0.1*381)/1 = (224.4+110.4+38.1)/1 = 372.9 c) Exponential Smoothing: Ft = F(t-1) + a[(At-1)]-(Ft-1)] F(Sept7) = 360 + 0.2(360-360) = 360 F(Sept14) = 360 + 0.2(389-360) = 365.8 F(Sept21) = 365.8 + 0.2(410-365.8) = 374.64 F(Sept28) = 374.64 + 0.2(381-374.64) = 375.912 F(Oct5) = 375.912 + 0.2(368-375.912) = 374.3296 F(Oct12) = 374.3296 + 0.2(374-374.3296) = 374.26368 4.2. a) Years There seems to be a steady flat-line trend, with 2-year cyclical peaks. b) Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Deman d 7 7.666 9 10 11 11 11.333 11 9 Year4 = (7+9+5)/3 = 7 Year5 = (9+5+9)/3 = 7.666 Year6 = (5+9+13)/3 = 9 Year7 = (9+13+8)/3 = 10 Year8 = (13+8+12)/3 = 11 Year9 = (8+12+13)/3 = 11 Year10 = (12+13+9)/3 = 11.333 Year11 = (13+9+11)/3 = 11 Year12 = (9+11+7) = 9

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Years c) Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Deman d 6.4 7.8 11 9.6 10.9 12.2 10.5 10.6 8.4 Year4 = (0.1*7+0.3*9+0.6*5) = 6.4 Year5 = (0.1*9+0.3*5+0.6*9) = 7.8 Year6 = (0.1*5+0.3*9+0.6*13) = 11 Year7 = (0.1*9+0.3*13+0.6*8) = 9.6 Year8 = (0.1*13+0.3*8+0.6*12) = 10.9 Year9 = (0.1*8+0.3*12+0.6*13) = 12.2 Year10 = (0.1*12+0.3*13+0.6*9) = 10.5 Year11 = (0.1*13+0.3*9+0.6*11) = 10.6 Year12 = (0.1*9+0.3*11+0.6*7) = 8.4 Years d) The weighted average forecast seems to provide a better prediction to the demand for upcoming years.
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