BayesianMethods - CSC 411 / CSC D11 Bayesian Methods 11...

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Unformatted text preview: CSC 411 / CSC D11 Bayesian Methods 11 Bayesian Methods So far, we have considered statistical methods which select a single “best” model given the data. This approach can have problems, such as over-fitting when there is not enough data to fully con- strain the model fit. In contrast, in the “pure” Bayesian approach, as much as possible we only com- pute distributions over unknowns; we never maximize anything. For example, consider a model parameterized by some weight vector w , and some training data D that comprises input-output pairs x i ,y i , for i = 1 ...N . The posterior probability distribution over the parameters, conditioned on the data is, using Bayes’ rule, given by p ( w |D ) = p ( D| w ) p ( w ) p ( D ) (1) The reason we want to fit the model in the first place is to allow us to make predictions with future test data. That is, given some future input x new , we want to use the model to predict y new . To accomplish this task through estimation in previous chapters, we used optimization to find ML or MAP estimates of w , e.g., by maximizing (1). In a Bayesian approach, rather than estimation a single best value for w , we computer (or approximate) the entire posterior distribution p ( w |D ) . Given the entire distribution, we can still make predictions with the following integral: p ( y new |D ,x new ) = integraldisplay p ( y new , w |D ,x new ) d w = integraldisplay p ( y new | w , D ,x new ) p ( w |D ,x new ) d w (2) The first step in this equality follows from the Sum Rule. The second follows from the Product Rule. Additionally, the outputs y new and training data D are independent conditioned on w , so p ( y new | w , D ) = p ( y new | w ) . That is, given w , we have all available information about making predictions that we could possibly get from the training data D (according to the model). Finally, given D , it is safe to assume that x new , in itself, provides no information about W . With these assumptions we have the following expression for our predictions: p ( y new |D ,x new ) = integraldisplay p ( y new | w ,x new ) p ( w |D ) d w (3) In the case of discrete parameters w , the integral becomes a summation. The posterior distribution p ( y new |D ,x new ) tells us everything there is to know about our beliefs about the new value y new . There are many things we can do with this distribution. For example, we could pick the most likely prediction, i.e., arg max y p ( y new |D ,x new ) , or we could compute the variance of this distribution to get a sense of how much confidence we have in the prediction. We could sample from this distribution in order to visualize the range of models that are plausible for this data....
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This note was uploaded on 11/09/2010 for the course CS CSCD11 taught by Professor Davidfleet during the Spring '10 term at University of Toronto.

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BayesianMethods - CSC 411 / CSC D11 Bayesian Methods 11...

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