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Unformatted text preview: 90 . 77 . 50 . 47 . 40 . 8 . 9 . 0 years old 1 year old 2 year old 3 year old 4 year old 0 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Age at time t Age at time t +1 survivorship Year 2000 1.2 2001 0.5 2002 0.8 2003 1.5 2004 1.6 2005 0.4 2006 1.4 Average 1.06 Assume Turtle population is so small (100 individuals) that we can ignore density dependence. t t N N = + 1 Population should be growing at about a 6% rate per year Year 2000 1.2 2001 0.5 2002 0.8 2003 1.5 2004 1.6 2005 0.4 2006 1.4 Average 1.06 H Assume Turtle population is so small (100 individuals) that we can ignore density dependence. You return 50 years later, and 95% of turtle population is gone. Could you have predicted this? Lecture 5 Outline Age structure and Environmental Variability I. Review stagestructured models II. Agestructured models II. Survivorship curves III. Variability in vital rates A. Demographic vs. environmental stochasticity B. Effects of variation in lambda on population growth H No immigration or emigration Discrete periods of birth and death No age or stage structure (all individuals are equally likely to die and produce offspring) Constant environmental conditions No density dependence (as the population grows, stays the same) Assumptions of the geometic growth model ( is constant through time) H StageBased Model Divide the population up into stages that differ in key demographic transitions (birth and death rates) Quantify: 1. The probability of transitioning between different stages 2. The contribution of each stage to new individuals Lect. 4 H A A A J J A J J P P P P Stage at time t Stage at time t +1 J A J A Juveniles J Adults A P(Maturing) = m #offspring produced per adult = b P(Staying juvenile) = s J P(Survival) = s A A J s m b s Express Model as a Matrix Model Lect. 4 H Parker 2000 Scotch Broom Model Seed Seedling Juv SmAd MeAd LgAd XLgA Seed Seedling Juv SmAd MeAd LgAd XLgA Stage at t +1 Stage at t Lect. 4 H How do you collect these data? Seed Seedling Juv SmAd MeAd LgAd XLgA Seed Seedling Juv SmAd MeAd LgAd XLgA Stage at t +1 Stage at t Shrinkage Reproduction Growth Survive but stay in the same class Lect. 4 H What can we do with these matrix models? Estimate Predict the stable stage distribution Examine the contribution of different life cycle transitions to population growth Lect. 4 H = 8 . 2 . 2 4 . A Juveniles J Adults A 0.2 2 0.8 0.4 1 6 . 6 16 7 5 = A 12 22.6 Total Number As a proportion 29 ....
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This note was uploaded on 11/11/2010 for the course EEMB 120 taught by Professor Nisbet during the Spring '08 term at UCSB.
 Spring '08
 NISBET

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