Lecture1_2

# Lecture1_2 - Jan 25 th Review of Probability the Monty Hall...

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Unformatted text preview: Jan 25 th Review of Probability, the Monty Hall Problem ( _ _ ) P Win By Stay ( | _ _ _ _ Pr ) ( . . _ _ Pr ) P WBS First Door Chosen Has ize P F D C Has ize = ⋅ ( | _ _ _ _ _ Pr ) ( . . _ _ _ Pr ) P WBS First Door Chosen Has No ize P F D C Has No ize + ⋅ 1 2 1 1 3 3 3 = ⋅ + ⋅ = ( _ _ ) P Win By Switch ( | _ _ _ _ Pr ) ( . . _ _ Pr ) P WBSW First Door Chosen Has ize P F D C Has ize = ⋅ ( | _ _ _ _ _ Pr ) ( . . _ _ _ Pr ) P WBSW First Door Chosen Has No ize P F D C Has No ize + ⋅ 1 2 2 1 3 3 3 = ⋅ + ⋅ = • Please be ware that the pre-requisite for AMS312 is AMS311. • Please review Chapters 1, 2, 3 of our text book. • Please preview Chapter 4 of our text book. Jan 29 th Review of Normal Distribution 2 2 ( , ) : , : X N Mean Variance μ σ μ σ ∼ 1) c.d.f. (Cumulative Distribution Function) : ( ) ( ) ( ) x F x P X x f u du-∞ = ≤ = ∫ 2) p.d.f. (Probability Distribution Function) : 2 2 ( ) 2 1 ( ) 2 ( , ), ( , ), (0, ) x f x e x μ σ πσ μ σ-- = ∈ -∞ +∞...
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Lecture1_2 - Jan 25 th Review of Probability the Monty Hall...

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